UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 (copy)
Happy New Year! Kicking off the new year and will look to send more stuff to all the free subscribers out there! As always, if you want to join the “pay what you want” crew, you can adjust at the bottom of this email. Then you receive ALL. Rundowns every day, sometimes multiple times, covering all major sports.
That said, I’m off to send out today’s NFL rundown!
Here’s today’s UFC for ya!
Bout time! The UFC is back and kicking off 2025, of course we have ourselves an Apex card! What else would we want?!
Headlining we have a strawweight rematch between fan favs Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas, where Dern looks to even the score after Ribas took the nod back in 2019 in a pretty clear cut decision. Co-main brings us a solid striking set up between Santiago Ponzinibbio and Carlston Harris, two solid welterweights who can crack. Speaking of, half the fights scheduled, oddsmakers have ending inside the distance on the night, which makes for some entertaining swerves in DFS, and some props needing a look for some better pricing.
The most volatile of sports, betting wise is so back. Lets get after it and dive in and get this year rolling!
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Date: Saturday 1/11 at 4PM ET (note the slightly earlier start)
Broadcast: ESPN+
Venue: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, NV
Bouts: 14
PREDICTIONS:
MAIN:
Ribas defeats Dern
Dern has much improved her striking since their 2019 matchup, but I still have Ribas edging this one out in similar fashion. I see Ribas controlling distance and winning the standup with volume, and her takedown defense should hold key moments in winning rounds. Dern may sneak a round or two, but Ribas and her ability to adjust in the moment better than most, and consciousness in there always looking to win the rounds, should pay off.
CO-MAIN:
Ponzinibbio defeats Harris
Ponzinibbio’s recent run looks worse than it should. Going Going 2-4 in his last six, three of those four losses were split decisions versus Salikhov, Neal, and Peireira, all respected fighters. Ponz has fought the much better opponents over time, so no doubt has the experience edge in there. His volume and striking ability will put Harris is predicaments where he’ll have to attempt to snipe. Both have the skillset to finish, with Ponzinibbio typically looking for the knockout, while Harris slow rolls then catches his foes when they least expect. Win or lose, Harris has only gone to a decision once in his last 10 fights. Ponz will probably look to get in and get out himself, preferrably giving no shot to hand this one to the judges after his luck with the splits mentioned earlier. We could see an under cash here.
Almeida defeats Alhassan
Always dangerous to predict against a finisher like Alhassan, but I’m predicting an Almeida win here. Just four fights into his UFC run now, Almeida has shown his ability to withstand early melee’s from his opponents, and he’ll definitely need to do the same here against Alhassan, who comes in with 12 wins, all by knockout. Always a threat, especially early, Alhassan typically is reliant on connecting early, and has a tendency to slow the longer the fight goes. Almeida has great cardio, and I could see him capitalizing on mistakes, especially later in the fight.
Kopylov defeats Curtis
Chris Curtis has never landed a takedown in the UFC and coincidentally, the only three fights Kopylov has lost, his opponents did. Strikers delight in this one and “The Action Man” will look to spam combos while Kopylov will be the more calculated of the two, and you gotta watch for the kicks he mixes in. I’ll take the Russian.
Bashi defeats Rodriguez
I gotta see another Bashi fight here before I lay some coins down. The dude mauled Dorain Ramos with 10 takedowns inside of two rounds on his way to a SUB and looked impressive at just 23 years old. 13-0 to boot and has actually fought some competition other than cans on his rise. We all remember Rodgriguez who handed Raul Rosas Jr. his first loss, another fighter who leans on the grappling. I think Rosas got caught off guard in that one and was looking past, while I don’t see Bashi doing the same.
Soriano defeats Medic
I love Medic’s striking accuracy, and if he can avoid the grappling, he should take this. That said, I think Soriano has an angle here. Just go check his last fight. He completely mauled Miguel Baeza, landing 5 takedowns for over 10 minutes of control, and outstruck him 144-7. Now of course Soriano needs a genie in a bottle to outsrike a guy like Medic, but Medic has very comparable takedown defense to Baeza, and additionally worth noting his two UFC losses were actually due to takedowns which both resulted in submissions. Soriano has won every UFC fight in which his landed at least one takedown, and thats tough to look past, especially since his transition to welterweight. Fight outcome most likely results in a Medic TKO, or grinded out decision on the mat by the dog.
PRELIMS:
Bunes defeats Johnson
Tulio defeats Poteria
Moises defeats Ogden
Smith defeats Parsons
Kareckaite defeats Caliari
Gadzhiyasulov defeats Lopes
Kline defeats Dudakova
Aliev defeats Solecki
BET CONSIDERATIONS:
Ribas -186
Ponzinibbio/Harris U2.5 -145
Soriano/Medic U2.5 -160
Tulio/Potieria: Fight to Start RD 3: NO -165
Ribas/Tulio/Karackaite +159
DFS:
FANTASY PROJECTIONS:
AUTO OPTO LINES:
DraftKings 6 Pack
Fanduel 6 Pack
Good luck all!