UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
Date: Saturday 10/26 at 10AM ET
Broadcast: Pay Per View Prelims: ESPN
Venue: Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, Dubai
Bouts: 13
SPLITS:
PREDICTIONS:
MAIN CARD:
Holloway defeats Topuria (DEC)
We are about to see how much of the talk Topuria backs up. No doubt the champ is crafty and very technical in there, and he’s solid at conserving energy by removing unnecessary engagement. He’ll def need it here against the BMF champ who just destroyed Justin Gaethje up at 55. Topuria’s power vs the volume of Max here and not sure how much weight we put into the glove changes, but we’ve seen a pretty significant drop in KO rates which if it proves out, the volume fighter gets the edge. Topuria’s latest run isn’t all that impressive as you dive in, as he’s been matched with grapplers, and low volume guys with the exception of Volk, who had just been KO’d up a class, and was cutting back down to face Topuria. Seemed like a perfect time to fight Volk if you had to. The longer this fight goes, I just give Holloway more and more of an edge, especially as a 2:1 dog. Holloway is no stranger to these big spots and is a great dog play also considering he hasnt been finished in over 12 years, which was the only time he had been across 33 fights, mostly against the best of the best.
Chimaev defeats Whittaker (ITD)
Total live bet fight. Chimaev pretty much a lock to win the first round with that melee he puts down. If Whittaker survives the early stuff, this is another fight that turns towards the dog. Five rounds makes this one even more interesting. I do see Chimaev getting an early knockdown or getting this one to the mat. Not enough on this one for me to bet pre-fight.
Ankalaev defeats Rakic (DEC)
Rakic looks to be in the best shape of his life and Ankalaev was probably due a title shot a few fights ago, but keeps fighting whoever they put in front of him. One of these times its going to cost him, but I don’t think its this Saturday. I suspect Ankalaev will win rounds with the technique on the feet, going to the takedown when Rakic gasses later in the fight.
Murphy defeats Ige (DEC)
Solid fight and while both have hands that can finish, I see Murphy 29-28 at worst. The kicker for me is Ige’s last six losses, he’s been taken down, and Murphy has landed 10 takedowns across five of his last six wins.
Petrosyan defeats S Magomedov (DEC)
This fight just reeks of a Shara Bullet win. He’s fresh off a very debatable decision win vs Oleksiejczuk and seems to be a money maker for the UFC outside the states. So here we are in Abu Dhabi against a guy who will do nothing but stand and trade with him. Knowing Magomedov will probably invite the striking war, its tough for me to look past Petrosyan’s Muay Thai base and his ability to pick his opponents apart on the feet. Petrosyan is a former gold and silver winner in the IFMA World Muay Thai Championships. Dont get me wrong, Shara has that Muay Thai as well, but Arman is just more polished.
PRELIMS:
Cerqueira defeats Aslan (ITD) (This is the prelim feature for a reason. Serious violence on deck here with a -600 price tag it doesnt make the final bell.)
Neal defeats RDA (DEC) (RDA’s 40th bday at fight time)
Orolbai defeats Rebecki (DEC) (I’ve never bet against Rebecki and will pass here to stay true)
A Magomedov defeats Ferreira (ITD) (Ferreira is live but lean Abus)
Nzechukwu defeats Barnett (TKO) (All the makings of a UFC 1 match up and I love it. Kennedy move to HW)
Basharat defeats Hugo (DEC) (Fight moved up a class with Hugo no chance at cutting to the limit.)
Naurdiev defeats Silva (ITD) (Massively suspicious line swing here in favor of Naurdiev a few days ago. Def worth noting)
Fakhretdinov defeats Leal (DEC) (Leal solid but UFC giving him no welcome to the UFC favors with Rinat)
BET CONSIDERATIONS:
Holloway +235
Topuria/Holloway O2.5 -190 (Alt)
Murphy DEC -150
Petrosyan +3.5 point spread -175
Abus/Ferreira Fight to start RD 3: NO -185
Silva/Naurdiev U2.5 -135 (Naurdiev SUB +450 is interesting)
Fakhretdinov DEC -110
DFS
FANTASY PROJECTIONS:
AUTO OPTO LINES:
DraftKings
Manual:
Orolbai/Topuria/Chimaev/Cerqueira/Ferreira/Petrosyan
Nzechukwu/Basharat/Chimaev/Ferreira/Holloway/Rakic
Nzechukwu/Topuria/Naurdiev/Cerqueira/Petrosyan/Leal
Fanduel
Manual
Topuria/Murphy/Chimaev/Hugo/Orolbai/Aslan
Chimaev/RDA/Topuria/Ankalaev/Petrosyan/Aslan
Nzechukwu/Chimaev/Ankalaev/Petrosyan/Hugo/Cerqueira