UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
Date Saturday 8/17 at 6:30PM ET
Broadcast: Pay Per View Prelims: ESPN
Venue: RAC Arena in Perth , Western Australia
Bouts: 12
We got ourselves a banger on deck. Solid matchmaking top to bottom with 9 of these 12 matchups favored to finish inside the distance, and the night will wrap with DDP looking to defend against the former champ Israel Adesanya, who’s making his return after a brief hiatus after dropping the strap to Sean Strickland last September. DDP and Izzy have been chirping back and forth for what seems to be an eternity now, so Saturday’s main can’t come soon enough.
Damn son.. we got the Astro Boy Steve Erceg in the co-main facing Kai Kara-France, a Tuivasa shoey somewhere in the mix, a tatted up Dan Hooker, Tom Nolan about to murder some dude, and the other Tafa bro wrappin the prelims. A very light card for American athletes, and Aussies and Brazilians are sprinkled all over this card, but that said.. its gonna be solid.
Just one weight miss for this one…
SPLITS:
PREDICTIONS:
MAIN:
Du Plessis defeats Adesanya
Sitting at a pickem and that will look like a horrible line if we see the Izzy of old with all that swag, octagon control, and movement show up Saturday night, but i’m not sure. He took his break and steps right back into the title challenger spot and deservingly so. He seems very mentally engaged this week and almost sucked into the pressure of the spot DDP has created for this moment. Du Plessis is massively confident and if I may say he’s kinda rattled Adesanya this week, actually to the point of tears. What I expect to see in this one is a battle for who’s controlling where this fight goes from start to finish, with an opponent like Du Plessis who will bring it like nobody has yet against Adesanya, except for maybe Poatan.
As we know, Adesanya is known for his elite striking, precision, and ability to control range. He’s a former kickboxer with 80 fights prior to his transition to MMA, and a plethora of experience under the bright lights with belts at stake. He’s known for making it difficult to find him in there and his fight IQ and ability to adjust is always present.
Du Plessis now holds the strap, and after we initially assumed he would be the one challenging Izzy for the championship, roles have reversed, yet Du Plessis and his passion to face this guy has just grown even more. What has him live in this spot is the situation itself, and Izzy coming in after the long layoff after pretty much getting shut down by Strickland in his own back yard. That’s a tough recent memory to bounce back from especially against a guy who’s bringing the confidence Mr. Perfect would walk to the ring with, and a track record actually backing it. DDP has a very unorthodox striking style which tends to frustrate his opponents, eventually opening up bizarre angles in which his scores. He’s extremely tough and brings a very high-pressure approach with power, which makes him dangerous both standing and on the mat. Speaking of, DDP has landed takedowns in five of his last six fights, including six versus Strickland when he won the belt.
Both fighters will have their moments and I suspect we get a solid matchup, one that will turn into a “toss out the game plan” scrap. Adesanya has every right to own the standup here with his experience and technique, but I really see DDP live with his style. If he can close the distance, pressure from the inside, he can execute some takedowns and wear the former champ down over the rounds, but he’s gotta spread it out and be smart with the timing. Adesanya’s skill and experience in front of his fans will sway the judges, but DDP’s unpredictability and gritty style could make this a war giving him that puncher’s chance with the five rounds to work.
Erceg defeats Kara-France
Man, Erceg really impressed me in that title fight versus Pantoja. Not only did he adjust well in there losing by literally a round, but his mental agility is solid. Thats a tough spot jumping into a title challenger spot, fight week, media, etc this early into the game for a guy who had like three UFC fights under his belt. Massive points. In this spot, I think there is some recency bias matching my above comments, and the fact Kara-France has dropped two straight. I could see the line a tad tighter and wish it was actually because I side with Erceg myself. KKF is a well-rounded striker with a bump up in power at this weight compared to his peers, and is known for sharp combos and pressure. Erceg can hang though on the feet, and when he chooses, is a talented grappler and submission guru, posing problems for even the champ. I expect Erceg to have his way with a slight shot at a sub, but ultimately to a decision win, worst case 29-28, putting him right back into the title talk.
Gamrot defeats Hooker
Total striker versus grappler matchup. Hooker has that Muay Thai with the size and range while Gamrot will spaz takedowns and control you, taking rounds on his way to judges ink. Gamrot has yet to have a fight where he hasnt landed a take down or 11, and if anything could put a stop to that, it would be a Dan Hooker knee on the shoot. Gamrot’s smarts in there though have been proven time after time, seeing him at times adjust, or add urgency when needed most taking over rounds and simply doing whats needed. I like the grappler.
Rozenstruik defeats Tuivasa
Ok hear me out. I’ll pass pre fight but will be on the trigger live during this one. Tuivasa will have that whole venue in his pocket and if he can turn this into a brawl, he’s very live. His power can wrap a fight against anyone, it just depends on if the opponents willing to trade. We’ll have more of an opportunity here in comparison to his recent stretch of fights because we know Rozenstruik ain’t trying to grapple much. Rozenstruik is a kickboxer with technical striking, and great counters when his opponents get reckless, and you know Tai about to get reckless in there. If Rozenstruik can keep Tuivasa at range and counter the haymakers, he’ll bust up the Aussie and force the ref to step in. You know though, Tai is always dangerous, and if he can turn this into a brawl, we just might see a shoey or two.
Prates defeats Jingliang
The Leech is back! Bout time but unfortunately he’s in for a tough night against Carlos Prates. Prates has now won 8 fights straight by knockout and he looks ready for war heading into this one. The Leech will not back down either as we’ve seen his ability to absorb damage and keep pressing. I suspect The Leech will eventually look for takedowns, but Prates will fend them off, pressing the standup, eventually showing his creativity and landing the bigger shots of the two. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if we see Prates work towards a submission attempt along the way, possibly with success, but either way, his hand should get raised as these two kick off the PPV.
PRELIMS:
Walker defeats Tafa (DEC)
Both rely on striking, but knowing that, Walker can also mix in some takedowns and control. His last fight he landed four takedowns and if he’s smart, he’d do the same here and drag this one out, or pepper from top control wearing down Junior. Looks like Walker also dropped some LBs in this one, so that first L probably lit a fire.
Culibao defeats Ramos (DEC)
Just cant trust Ramos. Five of his six losses have come in the first round. Culiabao historically too is a fast starter so it will be interesting to see if he can catch him. I like Culibao’s toughness and striking enough to get the nod.
Santos defeats O’Neil (DEC)
O’Neil gets hit alot. She went 9-0 until dropping her last two, but its debatable she also lost to Modafferi which would have made it three. Santos will throw. Santos just fought a month ago and took no damage submitting Agapova in the first. I look back at the Juliana Miller fight where Santos drilled her to the tune of 63 sig strikes in 3 minutes. Like I said, O’Neil is very hittable and we could see em add up.
Jenkins defeats Burns (TKO)
Burns is a stud for about two minutes.
Nolan defeats Reyes (Mortal Kombat..”Finish Him!”)
Reyes is 37 and hasnt won a fight since 2017. He’s been KO’d in his last two and now faces up and comer prospect Tom Nolan in his own back yard. The Brooklyn Brawler went 1-104 one year so there’s always a chance, but I’m actually concerned for Reyes and his health here.
Song defeats Glenn (ITD)
America’s hope to get a W on this card in Glenn. The fight will come down to if Glenn can avoid the power shots coming his way from Song. Song thrives in the stand up and Glenn is fresh off two straight TKO losses. I think Song catches him.
Nicoll defeats Aguilar (SUB)
Aguilar the only fighter to miss weight. Regardless, this is Nicoll’s coming out party and his versatility and ability to switch things up in there should put him in position for a choke, and at the very least a decision.
BET CONSIDERATIONS:
Du Plessis/Adesanya: Fight ends inside the distance -140
Erceg -170 (look SUB +600)
Jingliang/Prates O1.5 -160
Walker +110
Culibao -135
Santos -140
Nicoll/Aguilar U2.5 +110
Nicoll SUB +400
FANTASY PROJECTIONS:
AUTO OPTO LINES: (Will drop manuals in discord)
DraftKings
Fanduel
Should be a good card!