UFC 303: Pereira vs. Procházka 2
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Procházka 2
Date: Saturday 6/29 at 6PM ET
Broadcast: PPV Prelims: ESPN
Venue: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada
Bouts: 13
…and just like that a single baby toe upgrades the main event. I’ll take Poatan vs Jiri any day over a guy thats been on the shelf for three years, including the fact that he’s had just one win in seven years, vs a guy thats been on ice and inactive for two years simply waiting for the match up. Heck doesnt Pereira have two broken toes coming into this one? These two are warriors and about to get violent and put a bow on a solid card.
SPLITS:
WEIGH INS:
PREDICTIONS:
MAIN:
Pereira defeats Prochazka
Jiri didn’t blink once at the face off shown above. I’m pumped. Pereira finished Jiri in their first matchup but Jiri had his moments like he typically does. The guy came into that one pretty fresh off shoulder injury but as we know, regardless of the circumstances, he’s kill or be killed and very unorthodoxed along the way. Jiri has all the ability to land a kill shot from some crazy angle but with those odd positional shots, comes more openings from his opponent, hence only going to the final bell once in 35 fights. (Man I remember touting Jiri before he got to the UFC. He was running thru dudes in Gladiator and Rizin. Love his mental game and skill. Such a beast.) Alright, anyhow, Poatan knows Jiri is susceptible to leg kicks and rarely defends and I believe he will go to work early, taking his legs from under him and opening up the shot to the dome. It concerns me a tad that Pereira is stepping in (yet again) to save the card after being on tour in Australia, as well as having some issues with the toes himself. The dude has lightning in those hands though and Jiri is highly doubtful to go to the takedowns and rather make this a firefight, one which i’ll back the Brazilian once again with the bread. (These are two of my favs right here though)
Ortega defeats Lopes
Lopes has been on a tear but I cant get stuck here on the recency bias, especially against T-City at a dog price. I believe Lopes has met his match in Ortega. Ortega didnt miss weight on the real, he was actually moving up to 55 but got the call here for short’ish notice. (Another card saver fight after Conor stubbed his toe) Big opp for Lopes but takedowns will come into play similar to his two losses in the UFC against Evloev and Brito. Ortega has a solid corner and the intelligence in there that most don’t, and will adjust like the flip of a switch if needed. I gotta bite.
Smith defeats Dolidze
I think Smith has a legit shot here. Dolidze is a natural 185’er and Smith will have some size here. Dolidze is also a father and has a recent baby with fellow fighter Cheyanne Vlismas and I suspect dude isnt sleeping well these days. IYKYK.
Team no sleep or not, Dolidze is durable and will hang in there, and picks up the pace when needed. He’ll probably give up twenty pounds here and still hang. Smith is coming off a decent win as a sizeable dog against Petrino with the finish and continues to talk title shot even though he’s 2-3 in his last five. He has a history of being, I think the word is “untrustworthy?” from a betting perspective, so not sure I’ll bite but I’m interested. Smith has proven the ability to crank out the volume and on the ground he’s a problem for most. Only 16% of their combined 72 fights have gone the distance. Great number on the under.
Bueno Silva defeats Chiasson
I think most are getting sucked into the size difference here and have flipped the line. I like Chiasson, I’ve traded messages with her and I can see a ton of improvements from her end (leaving social media was a good move), and this is a winnable fight for her if it plays out on the feet. I sense though that Bueno Silva will eventually succumb to the reach advantage and shoot. Bueno Silva’s favorite submission is that armbar followed by the kneebar, and those long limbs will be for the taking if this one hits the mat, especially if they are spending some time grappling. Solid fight and to me worthy of its PPV slot.
Garry defeats Page
If ego comes into play and the game plan is thrown out the window, the can go under. Ultimately though, I give Garry the edge based on the volume edge from the distance and ability to execute the takedowns and win rounds. I have a suspicion we see an unexpected finish by a split second mistake though by one of these two guys with the flashy stuff.
PRELIMS:
Pyfer defeats Barriault (U2.5) Pyfer early, Barriault live late.
Swanson defeats Fili (U2.5) I question both guys durability at this point in their careers. 7 of last 10 combined fights have ended inside win or lose.
Silva defeats Jourdain (DEC)
Talbott defeats Ghemmouri (ITD, lean TKO)
Robertson defeats Waterson (SUB)
Arlovski defeats Buday (DEC)
Tsuruya defeats Hernandez (ITD)
Simon defeats Oliveira (ITD)
BET CONSIDERATIONS:
Pereira KO/TKO +115
Pereira/Prochazka: Fight won’t start round 3 -128
Ortega +120
Smith/Dolidze U2.5 -110
Pyfer/Barriault U2.5 -135
Fili/Swanson U2.5 -120
Tsuruya ITD -125
DFS
FANTASY PROJECTIONS:
AUTO OPTO LINES:
DraftKings
Manual:
Tsuruya/Pyfer/Pereira/J Silva/Ortega/Chiasson
Tsuruya/Pyfer/Lopes/J Silva/Jiri/Chiasson
Tsuruya/Simon/Pereira/Silva/Waterson/Chiasson
Fanduel
Manual:
Talbott/Chiasson/Smith/Jiri/Jourdain/Tsuruya
Talbott/Barriault/Chiasson/Smith/Fili/Tsuruya
Talbott/Barriault/Pereira/Tsuruya/Silva/Oliveira