UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski Saturday 2/11 at 6pm ET Prelims fire up on ESPN followed by the main card on PPV. 13 bouts live from Perth, Western Australia   The cards from down under are always lit.  I have the O/U on shoeys set at 2.5, not including the one you take during the main card at some point.  With 13 bouts scheduled, the card is sprinkled with 10 Aussie’s, a fight to name our new interim featherweight champion, and a fight in the prelims features our sugar momma Loma Lookboonmee swooping in from Thailand, who always does us right with decision props.  I probably should mention the main event too.  The very tippy top two pound-for-pound fighters in the world face off as current featherweight champ Alexander Volkanovski challenges Lightweight champ Islam Makhachev for the 155lb belt.   Its not everyday you get two guys on a combined 33 fight win streak.  Only two losses between the two along with 48 wins.  Massive fight on deck.  The "Pay what you can" squad is already reading the entire breakdown. Take the keys, determine your respectful price, and join the squad. We are slated to lock in 8-10 bet considerations and smash some DFS, but most importantly, have us a Saturday night full of scraps. See you soon!

UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski

Saturday 2/11 at 6pm ET

Prelims fire up on ESPN followed by the main card on PPV.

13 bouts live from Perth, Western Australia

The cards from down under are always lit. I have the O/U on shoeys set at 2.5, not including the one you take during the main card at some point. With 13 bouts scheduled, the card is sprinkled with 10 Aussie’s, a fight to name our new interim featherweight champion, and a fight in the prelims features our sugar momma Loma Lookboonmee swooping in from Thailand, who always does us right with decision props. I probably should mention the main event too. The very tippy top two pound-for-pound fighters in the world face off as current featherweight champ Alexander Volkanovski challenges Lightweight champ Islam Makhachev for the 155lb belt. Its not everyday you get two guys on a combined 33 fight win streak. Only two losses between the two along with 48 wins. Massive fight on deck.

As usual, lets dive in.

MAIN CARD:

Makhachev defeats Volkanovski

• Unfortunately, it’s true. Its hard not to like Volkanovski as a fighter and a person in general, but go easy if you secure a shot to hit that insane value on the guy in front of his hometown crowd. If there’s any spot where the crowd could sway the judges, it’s here in this spot. I just don’t see in this match up. Styles make match ups, right? You see, Volk has faced stand up strikers for the most part over this latter half of his career, with the exception of Brian Ortega. That Ortega got interesting there a few times when Ortega was able to secure the takedown. Makhachev has landed at least one takedown in 10 of his 13 UFC fights and I’ll be you a cookie he gets this one to the mat as well. Fellow fighters have mentioned that Makhachev is the strongest guy they’ve faced, and no disrespect to Ortega, but if/when Makhachev gets this one down, things are going to get tough for the smaller fighter. Regardless, for the time its on the feet, Volk will have his moments as the better striker of the two, but Makhachev will more elusive than most along the way. He enters this fight absorbing just 0.95 significant strikes per minute, which is the best rate in company history. On the offense, he’s uber accurate too, landing over 60% of his attempts which won’t hurt the cause. The line is too high for my liking to take Makhachev, but Volk himself, and the hostile territory for the Russian, should get this one O2.5 rounds which will give us a position on this fight.

Rodriguez defeats Emmett

• Great interim fight. Emmett has that power to take over any fight, while Yair is just the more dynamic fighter of the two anywhere this goes. Emmett has won his last three fights landing less than his opponent, yet dropping or hurting his opponent and stealing rounds. Yair has yet to get dropped during his 12 fight UFC run and can use his size to keep the distance while landing from the outside. Unless Yair gets finished, I just see him doing more with the volume and fight control in this one. I see this one going the full five with Yair getting his hand raised, setting up a fight with Volk.

Jack Della defeats Brown

• Dudes a beast. 3-0 with 3 KOs to start his UFC run. Jack Della will need to navigate the reach and length Brown will have the advantage with, but he’ll eventually land. Although Brown throws decent volume, Jack Della lands over 8.45 significant shots per minute on average, basically doubling the bigger fighter in Brown historically. If Brown wants to win this one, he’ll need to take Jack Della to the mat and just suck time with control from the top. This ain’t going to happen. What will though is Jack Della’s ability to bring his opponents into some stand up. He'll keep himself open enough to bait Brown into thinking he’s winning the stand up, and this is where Jack Della will land and with power. This crowd will go ham here in this spot. Give me the KO prop.

Porter defeats Tafa

• Here’s my angle. Tafa at home is going to come out fast and looking to get down for the crowd and Porter will weather the storm. Tafa is known for slowing after those first five minutes or so, and Porter has a gas tank you wouldn’t expect when you look at him. Porter will have leaps and bounds better cardio and his volume the latter half of the fight will take over. Tafa early, Porter early and late. Give me the dog. Could be a good live spot too for the hardcore.

Menifield defeats Crute

• Crute back from a torn ACL and reconstructive surgery, while Menifield hasn’t looked too bad as of late, dispatching of Misha Cirkunov and Askar Mozharov, both via knockout. Though 2-3 in his last 5 fights, Crute has definitely fought up a level as it relates to competition, though Menifield will be game in this spot. This is a huge fight for his career and with a win, he enters the rankings, which obviously means more bread. This particular scenario with Crute’s recent surgery and fight skid has me question why the line isn’t closer. I’ll say though, that if Crute can get this one into the 2nd round, Menifield is known for gassing abit which allows his opponent to take over. All three of Menifield’s losses have gone 9 minutes or longer into the fight. Crute is super hittable though and that’s not ideal against this guy. I’ll take a shot.

PRELIMS

Pedro defeats Bukauskas

Beghdasaryan defeats Culibao

Rodrigues defeats Ross (striker’s delight. Like Rodrigues to eventually hurt Ross)

Mullarkey defeats Prado

Jenkins defeats Shainis

Lookboonmee defeats Reed (you know what to do here)

Bilder defeats Young

Tukhugov defeats Brenner

Bet Considerations:

Makhachev/Volkanovski O2.5 -155 (Confidence B)

Yair Rodrigues by DEC +150 (Confidence B-)

Emmett/Yair Fight Goes to DEC -135 (Confidence C+)

Jack Della via TKO/KO -115 (Confidence B-)

Porter +110 (Confidence C)

Menefield +150 (Confidence C)

Kleydson Rodrigues ITD +100 (Confidence C)

Lookboonmee DEC -125 (Confidence A)

Lookboonmee/Jenkins parlay -145

Add Jack Della +126

Add Tukhugov +164

Heat Chart:

Sorted by finish projection:

AutoOpto Lines:

DraftKings

Here's if you fade Brenner (hint, hint)

Fanduel

Fading Reed and Brenner

Cash game stud: Makhachev

GPP: K. Rodrigues

Sneaky: Menifield

Lets get it.