Thursday Night Football
When: Thursday, September 12th at 8:15 pm ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida
Channel: Prime Video
Moneyline: Dolphins -125, Bills +105
Spread: Dolphins -2 (-110), Bills +2 (-110)
Total: Over 49 (-110), Under 49 (-110)
“This Thursday Night Football line opened with Miami listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public sees two evenly matched, undefeated teams and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this relatively split ticket count we’ve seen the Dolphins creep up from -1.5 to -2.5. Additionally, most books are juicing up Miami -2.5 to -115, signaling a possible further rise up to the key number of -3. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are relatively equal, as the oddsmakers theoretically have balanced action on both sides and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the line move toward Miami we can infer that the larger, sharper and more respected wagers are laying the points with the Dolphins at home. Miami is receiving 55% of spread bets but 60% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy.”
SPLITS:
FANTASY PROJECTIONS:
AUTO OPTO LINES:
DraftKings
Fanduel
No opinion on side.
MIA rush defense is downgraded so I like the Allen RUSH and TD spots. Bills CB Taron Johnson injured which puts Waddle in a great spot.
SGP: +450
Waddle 59+ REC YDS
Allen 28+ RUSH YDS
Hill Anytime TD
Allen Anytime TD