Super Bowl trends and more
Quick recap from Wednesday's bets:
💸CBB ND/GT U138 (Push)
💵 UVU -6 (Won by 16)
💵 UNLV -3.5 (Won by 10)
If you haven't already, jump on the "pay what you want" newsletter and get in the discord for those last minute drops.
On to Thursday! PGA and Tennis rundowns are out for the morning. On deck is the daily stuff, then onto the fights this weekend and Superbowl on Sunday!
Speaking of the big game.....
We are officially on countdown and its time to start getting some of this stuff dialed in. Billy Walters was interviewed on Wednesday sitting down with Brent Musburger and stated he hasn't even pulled the trigger yet. He stated "I really don't have someone that I'm ready to bet on. I got to get some major information cleaned up a little bit and then we'll see what the line is."
We better get to work!
Here's a quick rundown on some trends as we tighten things up as we get closer to kickoff.
Kansas City vs Philadelphia
OPEN: O/U 51 PHI +1
LIVE: O/U 50.5 PHI -1.5
KC RECORD: 16-3 (6-12-1 ATS, L10 9-1)
PHI RECORD: 16-3 (10-9 ATS, L10 8-2)
Current DraftKings MONEY REPORT:
Game Trends:
OVER the total is 6-2 in L8 KC vs PHI H2H matchups
PHI is 7-0 ATS L7 playoff games
PHI is 8-2 UNDER L10 playoff games
Superbowl Betting History:
Public sides are 10-9 straight up and against the spread in the Super Bowl since 2004.
18 times in Super Bowl history, the line has moved 1.5 points or more from the opening to closing lines. The team’s direction the line moves toward (-4 to -6, +6 to +4.5) is 16-2 straight up and 14-4 against the spread.
The team that closed with the higher spread handle percentage has predicted 5 of the past 6 Super Bowl winners.
Prop Trends:
Coin Toss: The past 8 winners of the coin toss have all deferred and then all subsequently lost the game straight up.
INT’s: Combined interceptions have gone over 1.5 in four straight Super Bowls, including 7 of the past 9.
SAFETY: Safety hasn’t occurred in 8 straight Super Bowls (hit in 3 straight before that).
2-PT CONVERSION: A two-point conversion hasn’t been converted in 5 straight Super Bowls.
EARLY SCORE: There hasn’t been a score in the first 6 minutes of the past 6 Super Bowls.
GAME DECIDED BY: The most common final margin in Super Bowl history is 3 pts (7X). The next closest is 4 pts (6X).
TOTALLY RANDOM STATS:
The regular season MVP has not won the Superbowl since 1999 (Kurt Warner). This makes the MVP 0-8 since 2000. Mahomes is projected to win this year’s hardware.
Teams wearing white jersey have won 15 of the last 18 Superbowls. As reported by Adam Schefter, the Chiefs will wear their white jerseys and Eagles their green.
Favorites by kickoff are 37-19 straight up, though underdogs have won 7 of the last 11.
The NFC is 16-5 in Superbowls played in domes. This year will be played indoors at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ.
The team that rushes more in the Superbowl is 39-14-3 ATS and 41-15 SU. This season, the Eagles ranked 5th and the Chiefs 20th in rush yards per game. Postseason trends are even worse for the Chiefs.
Teams that allow fewer points per game are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last 7 Superbowl games. This season, the Eagles have allowed 20.2 PPG and the Chiefs sit at 21.7.
Some popular props out there:
Dallas Goedert Over 48.5 rec yards (-125)
Patrick Mahomes Over 38.5 attempts
Kenneth Gainwell Over 10.5 receiving yards
Will a drive start inside the 5-yard line? No
Patrick Mahomes Over 17.5 rush yards
Kenneth Gainwell Over 19.5 rush yards (-115)
Will there be a two-point conversion attempted? Yes (+110)
Kenneth Gainwell anytime TD (+380)
Quez Watkins Under 13.5 receiving yards
Jalen Hurts Over 10.5 rushing attempts (-120)
Under 4.5 Chiefs players with a rush attempt (+190)
Over 2.5 players to attempt a pass (+140)
Miles Sanders Under 13.5 Rush Attempts (-110)
Chiefs TD in second quarter (-145)
Justin Reid (KC) Over 5.5 tackles + assists
Will the game be tied after 0-0? Yes
Jalen Hurts 1Q Passing TD (+215)
Patrick Mahomes Over 38.5 attempts
Travis Kelce Over 78.5 rec yards
Will Eagles convert fourth down in own territory? Yes (+300)
Travis Kelce 2+ TD (+475)
Will the game be tied after 0-0? Yes
Miles Sanders Anytime TD (-105)
Jerrick McKinnon Under 20.5 rush yards (-118)
Patrick Mahomes to win MVP (+130)
Largest Lead Under 14.5 points (-140)
....and we havent even got to the Gatorade color or halftime show props yet...
Rubs hands together, hits send.