SATURDAY MMA NEWSLETTER!
We have ourselves somewhat of a MMA marathon Saturday night with Bellator and UFC stacked late into the night. Bellator 290: Bader vs Emelianenko 2 leads things off and will fire off at 6pm ET with prelims on YouTube, followed by the main card on CBS. Heavyweight champ Ryan Bader will put his strap on the line and face off against MMA legend Fedor Emeliankenko, in what is the final fight in Fedor’s 23 year professional career.
After the Bellator warm up, and we’ve all poured one out for Fedor, UFC Fight Night will get rollin’ at 10pm ET on ESPN+, with the main card starting roughly around 1am. Live from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas. So what’s up with the late start? Well the card was originally slated to take place in Seoul, South Korea, but plans were scrapped after “The Korean Zombie” suffered an injury unable to compete. With the original card built around the Zombie, the UFC opted to shift gears and put his stunt double Derrick Lewis in the main event slot, where he’ll face off against Serghei Spivac in a heavyweight fight slated for five rounds in the small cage.
So as you know, I like to drop predictions for all the fights, coupled with some considerations to throw a little somethin’ somethin’ on without boring you to death. I’ll also include the usual Heat Chart for the UFC match ups that you can utilize for your DFS lineups and more.
ALL OF THIS WAS SENT TO THE “PAY WHAT YOU WANT” FAM LAST NIGHT
For those of you not interested in EVERYTHING, here’s a quick prediction preview for the main cards.
BELLATOR: 290: BADER vs EMELIANENKO 2
Saturday 2/4 at 6pm ET
Prelims: YouTube
Main Card: CBS
14 bouts scheduled, live from Inglewood, CA
Fedor defeats Bader
• FULL DISCLOSURE This is a complete emotional prediction. One of my all time favorites. Fedor’s last fight, goes out as the heavyweight champ and revenges Bader from their first match up after finishing Bader out of nowhere. If we are being real, Bader loses massive points if he drops this one. Fedor is 46 now, and Bader finished him in 35 seconds a couple years ago after catching him with a big shot. More than likely we see something sad and similar to the Shogun fight, but out of respect, I gotta take my guy Fedor. Do the right thing Bader.
Eblen defeats Tokov
• Don’t miss this fight. Both these guys are as legit as they come. Eblen has been getting pounded, moving his line from -165 to -300 or more at some spots now. I agree. I could see this one making the final bell as well with some time on the mat with Eblen controlling most of the fight on his way to a decision.
Homasi defeats Ward
• Don’t blink fight. This first round will be legit street fight. One of these two will be sawing logs early and I liked the under until I saw the line. Just sit back on this one and lets take in some violence.
If you want to follow along with the rest of this card, the 11 prelim fight predictions are out and available on the premium pay what you want newsletter. This includes 5 bet considerations.
Heading deep into the night, we head on over to the UFC APEX for...
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac
Saturday 2/4 at 10pm ET
Prelims: ESPN+
Main Card: ESPN+
12 bouts scheduled, live from Las Vegas, NV
Here's the MAIN & CO-MAIN:
Lewis defeats Spivac
• Major mysteries with Lewis at this point but the guy seems seriously dedicated to get back on track here after dropping two straight against Pavlovich and Tuivasa, two guys that throw hammers. Spivac is just 6-3 in the UFC and this line has some recency bias after his crushed Augusto Sakai and fan favorite (jokes) Greg Hardy. Lewis will be the bigger of the two here in this match up and historically, Spivac has struggled against guys that get going early. I could see Lewis closing the distance early and looking to get to war just like he did against Tuivasi until he got caught. This line in my opinion should be way closer. Lewis by KO is def live. PLEASE SEE THE PREMIUM UPDATE REGARDING THIS FIGHT
Jung defeats Clark
• Remember when Jung went to a draw with Sam Alvey? Jeeze. Oddsmakers have him a sizeable favorite here against Clark and I believe it comes down to the stylistic match up. There is a high probability that Jung clips Clark and hurts him. Clark historically doesn’t like to get hit and I think he’s going to get tagged up here. Clark has those phantom impressive performances though every few fights, but I just see Jung hurting him in the first half of the fight on his way to the dub.
If you want to follow along with the rest of this card, the other 10 fight predictions are out and available on the premium pay what you want newsletter. This includes 9 bet considerations.
For DFS, here's the top tier fighters on the heat chart based on projected odds to finish.
The entire chart was sent last night.
As always, consider when playing MMA DFS:
• Choose active fighters.
Coupling an active fighter on his/her way to a unanimous decision will give you key points for your team. Just like any other DFS traditional sport, you want the active, offensive player that scores. Key metrics here are SLpM and TD AVG/15min.
• Play the heavyweights.
The approximant overall finish rate in the UFC is 54%. Most of the weight divisions range from 40%-60%, while the heavyweights push a 75% finish rate. You will receive bonus points for finishes inside the distance.
• Try to always include the main event or title fights.
Five round fights mean more time to rack up points if you pick the right fighter. In some cases, even if you have the loser, the points can be more than a three-round winner.
• Don’t get excited and rush a pick based on stats, consider sample size.
Some fighters have limited fights compared to their opponents when looking at metrics. Stats could be exaggerated. Do your research. Watch for spots with debuting fighters as well. Always check the records of the opponents they faced on their way to the UFC. Always pull fight tape as well. You’d be surprised at what you will find.
• Review methods of victory.
I supply the finish rates within this article, and as you dive in even more, you can compare method of victory to method of loss for the matchups. For example, you can find matchups where Fighter A has a high % of submission victories matched up with Fighter B, with a high % of submission losses.
Here's a potential core for a manual build.
The AutoOpto lines were sent last night for both DraftKings & Fanduel.
Premium squad, watch for a quick newsletter update to the #SquadLocked crew here shortly.
Lets have some fun tonight! WAR FEDOR! ~Casey