Contender Series 2024: Week 6
Date: Tuesday 9/17 at 8PM ET
Broadcast: ESPN+
Venue: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, NV
Bouts: 5
PREDICTIONS: To clarify, in predictions, I pick who I think will win the fight itself, and in parenthesis is what I believe the fight outcome will be regardless of the winner.
Smith defeats Tau (O1.5)
Tau has fought some real low level opponents on his way to this opportunity. That said, he’s stronger than he looks, and comes forward for the kill. He’s not the best striker, but throws from left field looking to finish the fight. If his opponents closes, watch for him to go for slams, looking to gain top position for some GnP. Smith is the son of UFC vet Gilbert Smith, so i guess you could say he grew up in the sport, although his Dad never actually won a fight under the UFC banner. Great opportunity here for him. He’s fast on the feet, has reach, and can load up combos that will score. Both will look for a quick finish but I see Smith’s technical advantage winning two of the three rounds if it goes to the final bell, if he doesnt get the TKO.
Teixeira defeats Lopes (TKO)
Some serious low level heavyweight shenanigans here. Tough to back either guy but Teixeira has experience in org’s we’ve actually heard of. Teixeira will use his size appropriately and jab away and will mix in some decent kicks. Neither guy has ever been out of the first round, so tough to say what happens to the cardio if this one gets stretched beyond that first five minutes. I suspect Teixeira takes this in the first but will pass betting wise.
Bennett defeats Hart (U2.5)
Bennett will have the wrestling edge and will probably want to utilize it against this guy. Hart is a finisher, and Bennett will have to avoid knees and elbows when they come together. Hart has been known to be a tad stationary in there at times, which will open up opportunities for Bennett to connect or secure a takedown. Hart’s one pro loss, he was pretty much dominated on the grappling side, which could paint a path for Bennett. Only two of a combined 14 pro fights have gone to a decision between these two, and I could see the trend continuing with a potential contract on the line.
Naito defeats Gautier (ITD)
Naito is still perfect as a pro and coming into this one as the Pancrase MW Champ. He’s a quick starter and can stay composed and counter, while Gautier will be more wild, but also coming in fast. Gameplan wise, Naito should look to get this one to the mat and control. Gautier outside of the first round will be mysteries, as he most likely will slow and appear lost in there. The line flip I believe is due to the finish probability Gautier possesses but I’m seeing Naito being able to hang early and take over late if needed.
Hassanzada defeats Mantello (O1.5)
Going to fade the Longo fighter here. Both guys getting a second crack here after falling short in their first opportunties. Although hittable, Mantello has some ok grappling and is pretty defensively sound fending off incoming takedowns against medicore grapplers. Hassanzada I think can get him to the mat though if needed. Hassanzada will look to control and come forward on the feet, and has no give, basically stating you gotta put him away or he’ll keep marching forward. Both fighters have paths to victory, with Mantello probably the slight edge on the feet, although Hassanzada could steal rounds with damage. Gameplan wise, Hassanzada should look to get this one down and get to the submissions, which actually could be live.
BET CONSIDERATIONS:
Bennett/Hart U2.5 -105
Naito -102
Mantello/Hassanzada O1.5 -135