August 5, 2023

WWC: End of the Groups

Before we begin, one important note: Fox is pretty accurate with kickoff times, except for USWNT games. They are saying the “coverage starts” at 4am ET tomorrow (Sunday 8/6), which is objectively true. However, the kickoff is at 5am. If you’re on the east coast, that’s practically a reasonable time to wake up, other than the fact that it’s a Sunday.

Moving forward, pretend like this was sent on Friday, before the knockout round began, because I messed up the scheduled send again.

The group stage is over and wow. Unless there are solid statistics to back it up, I don’t love claims of something being the most/least/best/worst. But it certainly has been an entertaining one, with some very expected results, and some very unexpected ones.

I feel like I heard announcers claim a lot of different results as the “biggest upset of the tournament” or even in tournament history. Looking at the numbers–that is the difference in rank–the biggest upset was 72nd ranked Morocco’s 1-0 defeat of 17th ranked South Korea but I feel like it didn’t get much discussion.

Colombia’s defeat of Germany has gotten a lot more air time, even though the teams are 25th and 2nd respectively, but I can understand that. Germany are big favorites and Colombia played an incredible game, winning it in the final minutes of the game. It was an exciting match. 

Some other big unexpected results:

Team	Goals	Team	Goals	Rank Diff
South Korea	0	Morocco	1	59
Colombia	0	Morocco	1	51
Costa Rica	1	Zambia	3	45
France	0	Jamaica	0	38
South Africa	3	Italy	2	38
Nigeria	0	Canada	0	33
Australia	2	Nigeria	3	30
Argentina	2	South Africa	2	26
Germany	1	Colombia	2	23
New Zealand	0	Philippines	1	20
New Zealand	1	Norway	0	14
Colombia	2	South Korea	0	8

Looking at the bigger picture, there have been some unexpected results as well:

• You have no doubt seen some comments somewhere about the underperformance of the USWNT. It has been unpacked extensively on every social media and sport media platform I’ve seen. I can’t say I’m surprised in the least, however I’m including it here because I think, for some, it’s quite unexpected. The reality is, the team today is not playing like the team in 2019 AND the rest of the world has caught up. It is worth noting that they had the highest ranked group, with an average FIFA ranking of 16 for the four. For comparison, the next closest average was 20, in Group B (Australia, Ireland, Nigeria, and Canada) and the lowest average ranking was 34 in Group C (Spain, Japan, Costa Rica, Zambia).

• Canada/Christine Sinclair and Brazil/Marta are both out of the World Cup, and neither scored a goal. This means they have to share the record of goals in five consecutive World Cups with Cristiano Ronaldo, which is annoying because he’s the worst. It’s also surprising generally. Canada and Brazil are both top ten teams. But that doesn’t seem to mean much in this World Cup. 

• In fact, of the top 20 ranked teams that qualified for the World Cup (competition is tight among the UEFA teams, so a fair number of the top 20 are not included), 7-Canada and 8-Brazil are joined by 2-Germany, 14-China, 16-Italy, 17-South Korea, and 20-Portugal in not moving through to the knockout rounds.

• The debutants were incredible. Only one, Morocco, qualified for the knockout stage, but every single one put up a good fight and managed to frustrate much more established teams. The biggest blowout this time was a 7-0 defeat of Vietnam by the Dutch. For comparison, in 2019 the biggest blowout was a 13-0 drubbing of Thailand by the USWNT. I am really excited to see how these talents progress.

• Speaking of unexpected talents, the lackluster showing of the veterans was easily forgotten in the bright glow of the young players. There were so many players in their teens and early 20s who played truly stellar soccer. I will be digging into that more in a later edition, but suffice it to say for now that the future is brighter than neon.

Looking forward, here are the matchups for the round of 16:

• Switzerland v Spain

• Japan v Norway

• Netherlands v South Africa

• Sweden v USA

• Australia v Denmark

• England v Nigeria

• Colombia v Jamaica

• France v Morocco