making better decisions - 2. Magic 8-ball
Dealing with Difficult People
This email is one in a series on decision-making. The first one is an introduction to the series.
2. Magic 8-ball
One of the items that first springs to mind when thinking about decision making is a toy that I remember seeing in the 1980's; the magic 8-ball.
A magic 8-ball (invented just after World War 2) is a plastic sphere with a little screen underneath it. The way to use the 8-ball is to "ask" it a yes/no question, then shake the 8-ball, and one of the 20 options (10 yes, 5 ask-again, 5 no - see below) will appear.
In the late 1990's, when I had a Palm Pilot, it had a magic 8-ball app on it (something like this one, which would give you a randomly generated prompt from a list of prompts. There was some push-back, especially at church, for using anything with "magic" in the name as a tool to aid with decision-making.
I found a programming tutorial with a full list of the prompts.
When you shake the magic 8-ball, you would read one of these:
- It is certain
- It is decidedly so
- Without a doubt
- Yes, definitely
- You may rely on it
- As I see it, yes
- Most likely
- Outlook good
- Yes
- Signs point to yes
- Reply hazy try again
- Ask again later
- Better not tell you now
- Cannot predict now
- Concentrate and ask again
- Don't count on it
- My reply is no
- My sources say no
- Outlook not so good
- Very doubtful
What does this have to teach us about decision making?
Picture a yes/no decision that you have to make (or the situation where you're trying to simplify your list of options by ruling some out).
You're facing this choice, and you reach for a magic 8-ball. You're able to see the decision from outside yourself, and imagine how an artificial correspondent would look at the situation. The idea that the magic 8-ball has sources, can see the outcome, or that a clear yes/no answer is possible, can be reassuring.
When you hear a response from the magic 8-ball, you also have the opportunity to think about the impact of that particular decision, and further clarify your thinking around that option.
It's still quite a playful piece of technology, and so may be appear too immature to use in some decision-making settings, but the reflection that it's able to unlock could be useful in a range of different decision making contexts.
Have you ever had a magic 8-ball? What do you think about using a toy to help with a real-world decision?