The Quantum Shrug: Why Crypto's Collapse Is Priced In
Everyone assumes the quantum computing threat is a distant, theoretical problem. The consensus is that we have at least a decade to migrate to post-quantum cryptography. Even the alarm bells acknowledge a need for action, but treat it as a manageable, long-term project.
They're wrong. The timeline just got compressed. A leading cryptographer has effectively moved the doomsday clock forward, suggesting a viable quantum attack on existing encryption could be possible within five years. This dramatically accelerates the need for migration. What's baffling is the market's *lack* of reaction. Instead, we're seeing a risk-on environment, driven by AI hype, that fundamentally depends on the *current* (soon-to-be-broken) encryption infrastructure. The market's pricing in further AI growth, *not* the systemic risk that underpins the whole system.
I'm betting the market's already quietly priced in the crypto collapse because of the quantum threat. They're not pricing in a broader collapse that is going to make AI infrastructure vulnerable.