Everyone is treating the Middle East ceasefire as a sign that the coast is clear, that geopolitical risk has receded, and that we can all go back to focusing on interest rates and earnings. The market has priced in two weeks of peace, and oil has priced in… well, nothing much really. They're wrong.

This isn't a resolution; it's a pause. A fragile, temporary agreement that buys time for both sides, but solves nothing. The underlying tensions remain, the proxy wars continue, and the fundamental instability hasn't budged. The market is suffering from recency bias and ignoring the near-certainty that this ceasefire will eventually collapse. They are focusing on the immediate relief rather than the long-term risk. Worse, they are using this moment to justify existing bullish positions, embedding the narrative of 'everything is fine' into their strategies.

I'm tracking the Strait of Hormuz / Plastics Inflation Spillover very closely, along with overall Geopolitical Escalation. A disruption there spills over *directly* into inflation expectations. The ceasefire hasn't addressed that risk, merely delayed its potential impact. The market is pricing in the delay, not the underlying threat.