The Confidence Signal Nobody Believes
Everyone's convinced inflation is the only game in town. Every twitch in the CPI is magnified. Every Fed utterance dissected. But they're missing the forest for the trees. Yesterday, we got two major data points: A successful, on-time splashdown by the Artemis crew and a stickier-than-expected inflation report. One objectively *good*, one objectively *bad*. The market's reaction to *both*? Risk-on.
This isn't about ignoring inflation. It's about recognizing a fundamental shift in market psychology. The market isn't reacting like it *fears* inflation. Instead, it's brushing it off, confident that *something*—AI, technological innovation, or sheer fiscal force—will overwhelm it. This is a confidence signal, but nobody wants to believe it. The narrative is too entrenched. But I keep returning to it: the market shrugged at bad news. That's the story. The confidence that nobody believes is the most important signal right now. If you believe inflation is beaten, you might be missing the very bet that's already in motion.
If you believed inflation was beaten, you weren't alone. But the market didn't care, and that's what I'm paying attention to.