Everyone assumes supply chain risk is a *future* problem, contingent on some geopolitical black swan. They think energy rationing, Strait of Hormuz closures, or direct conflict are distant possibilities that markets will react to *after* they happen.

They're wrong. The four-hundred American farmers snapping up pre-Y2K tractors from Alberta prove that supply chain anxiety is already here, baked into farmer decision-making. These farmers aren't just nostalgic; they're strategically de-risking their operations *now*, before the predictable disruptions arrive. They're paying a premium for mechanical reliability and repairability over digital 'efficiency' because they understand that a $500,000, digitally-dependent machine becomes a liability, not an asset, when the network goes down or the manufacturer locks them out of repairs. This is the smart money making preemptive moves to secure their yields, not some rural Luddite revolt.

The Alberta tractor story isn't just a niche anecdote; it's a canary in the coal mine. This early flight to simple, repairable equipment signals a deep-seated, and likely accurate, expectation of coming supply chain breakdowns. Smart money isn't waiting for the crisis to hit; it's already repositioning. This is more than just risk aversion; it's active adaptation. Markets will continue to misprice the impact of inevitable disruptions until they are priced in. They won't be.