February 24, 2023

Two Wild Peaches: Greenhouse Gases and Prediction Machines

The Prediction Machine – Wild Peaches

Part I - Protocols and OpenBB

In Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner tested the predictions of experts and found “the average expert was roughly as accurate as a dart-throwing chimpanzee.” Experts and pundits have gained reputations mainly by telling convincing stories more often than being right. Is it possible to create an algorithm that does better?

CO2 v. CH4 – Wild Peaches

Carbon dioxide or methane? Who will win the smackdown of the greenhouse gas molecules?

You’ve probably read that methane traps heat in the Earth’s atmosphere much more effectively than carbon dioxide. An article about these two greenhouse gases will say that over some number of years, methane traps multiple times the heat more than carbon dioxide. But, the number of years and the multiplier seems to change from one story to the next. What’s the right answer?