What if the NBA season was only these past 17 games?
What could possibly go wrong with drawing conclusions based on a 17 game sample size?
It has been roughly one NFL season worth of NBA games, since most teams have played 17ish games. This means we have enough data to give the final word on playoff positioning, end-of-season awards, and all other narratives. If it's enough games for another sport it's enough games for me.
FINAL standings
Eastern Conference
1: Detroit Pistons (14-2)
Very impressive season by the Pistons, taking the #1 seed in the east. We’ll see if it translates into playoff success!
2: Toronto Raptors (12-5)
What are these guys doing here? Well, they sustained it for a full regular season so I guess this must be real and not a fluke. The Raptors are good now. Masai Ujiri alone was the problem.
3: Cleveland Cavaliers (12-6)
They went from the one seed to the three seed so look for them to go from winning one series to three series this postseason.
4: Miami Heat (11-6)
Another scrappy Miami team, though this one has the highest seed since a 2021-22 team bouncing back from the post-bubble hangover. In a wide open east, who knows what could happen! The upcoming Heat-Hawks series will (hopefully) help answer some questions.
5: Atlanta Hawks (11-7)
If they were so good why would Trae be angling to leave? On the other hand, beating the Heat, the Pistons, and then the Cavs seems… within the realm of possibility. So perhaps they will represent the East in the finals.
6: New York Knicks (9-6)
Will not playing 1 million minutes in the regular season help the Knicks go on a playoff run, even if it cost them some regular season games? We shall see when they play the Cavs!
7: Chicago Bulls (9-7)
This team has been surprisingly good but it’s smoke and mirrors. Of course, one win and they face the Raptors in the first round so maybe this is their season of destiny.
8: Philadelphia 76ers (9-7)
Solid bounce-back season for the 76ers (even without much contribution from Joel Embiid or Paul George). They have a promising young rookie in VJ Edgecombe, Tyrese Maxey is hooping, and you can see the outline of a very good 76ers team of the future (though perhaps not the one envisioned two years ago). Maybe Paul George can start up his podcast again. They will, of course, squander this goodwill by somehow losing to the Bulls in the play-in.
9: Orlando Magic (10-8)
What are you doing down here? You were supposed to be good! You took my “you’re the only ones who can beat the Celtics” thing too seriously and followed them to the bottom of the play-in!
10: Boston Celtics (9-8)
Turns out teams are less good when their biggest star is out with an Achilles injury and their talented big men go to another team.
11: Milwaukee Bucks (8-9)
Losing Giannis to injuries doomed this Bucks season. Losing Giannis to some other team will doom the rest of this Bucks decade.
12: Charlotte Hornets (4-13)
If there were any Hornets fans left I’d tell them to start their offseason by picking a non-cursed team to root for. Gen Z icon LaMelo Ball (partially responsible for the 6-7 trend terrorizing middle school parents across the nation) wants out but let’s be real, he belongs here. What team is one LaMelo Ball away from contention?
13: Brooklyn Nets (3-13)
You’re gonna have to tank harder than that if you want top lottery odds! Better start working on a worse roster for next year.
14: Indiana Pacers (2-14)
Turns out teams are less good when their biggest star is out with an Achilles injury and their talented big man goes to another team.
15: Washington Wizards (1-15)
Now this was a tank! Well done lads. You deserve the #1 overall pick for this 1-win season.
Western Conference
1: Oklahoma City Thunder (17-1)
They’re really good and they like playing basketball together. Sadly a loss to the Trail Blazers (?) has marred an otherwise perfect season. They’ll look to avoid that kind of sloppiness in the first round.
2: Los Angeles Lakers (12-4)
Luka Doncic has been on fire this season and led the Lakers to a 2-seed. With LeBron James back for the playoffs, this team is angling to go all the way, but we’ll see if he is able to build the necessary chemistry with the other starters on the fly.
3: Denver Nuggets (12-4)
The Nuggets are good, even if they lost games to the Trail Blazers (?) and Kings (???). Their first round opponent is the Suns, which might actually be dangerous because the Nuggets love losing to weird teams.
4: Houston Rockets (10-4)
A fall-off in seeding from last season, but the addition of Kevin Durant makes this team much more threatening than last year. It will take a lot to overthrow the Thunder but this team might have what it takes.
5: San Antonio Spurs (11-5)
The big question here will be if the Spurs can survive long enough for Victor Wembanyama to get healthy. Without him, they’ll be a fun team with exciting young players who will just be here for the experience. With him, they’ll be a fun team with exciting young players who are a threat to make the leap and win it all.
6: Phoenix Suns (11-6)
What are you guys doing up here? Did we really need to give the Nuggets a freebie in the first round?
7: Minnesota Timberwolves (10-6)
The play-in feels cruel for a 10-6 team, but this is how it goes in the west. The Timberwolves have been good but haven’t quite had the juice this season. Look for them to consider splashy moves in the off-season to try to compete next year.
8: Golden State Warriors (9-9)
These old dudes can still ball when they feel like it, but haven’t quite managed to gel all season. They had an impressive pair of wins against the Spurs and a bunch of embarrassing losses. Keep an eye out for a dark horse run, but a flame-out pair of losses in the play-in seems possible as well.
9: Portland Trail Blazers (7-10)
For a team whose season-starting head coach is under investigation for working with the mafia, the Trail Blazers have put on an impressive season with some nice flashes from the young players. Keep an eye out for them to make it out of the play-in, though they aren’t likely to put up much of a fight against the Thunder.
10: Memphis Grizzlies (6-11)
Despite sneaking into the play-in, the Grizzlies are toast. They will have a lot of hard questions to answer this offseason.
11: Utah Jazz (5-11)
Surprisingly good showing from the Jazz, though since they wanted to tank maybe it was not good?
12: LA Old Men (5-12)
James Harden having a vintage game is a lone bright spot in this season, which will most likely primarily be remembered for being Chris Paul’s retirement tour. Better luck next year!
13: Dallas Mavericks (5-13)
Nico Harrison was fired which is basically a Larry O’Brien trophy for Dallas fans. With a healthy Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving this will be a team to watch next year!
14: Sacramento Kings (4-13)
Westbrook managed to end the regular season with vengeance against the Nuggets, but otherwise an uneventful season in the trash bin. They need to fix the roster but who in this building will do it?
15: New Orleans Pelicans (2-15)
Another lost season for the Pelicans, and since they traded their first round pick this year, they’ll just have to hope Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen take the leap next year.
Playoff Predictions
Play-in tournament: 7-seed game
76ers (8) over Bulls (7)
Timberwolves (7) over Warriors (8)
Play-in tournament: Play-for-the-8-seed game
Celtics (10) over Magic (9)
Trail Blazers (9) over Grizzlies (10)
Play-in tournament: 8-seed game
Bulls (7) over Celtics (10)
Warriors (8) over Trail Blazers (9)
First Round
Pistons (1) beat Bulls (8), 4-1
76ers (7) beat Raptors (2), 4-3
Cavaliers (3) beat Knicks (6), 4-3
Hawks (5) beat Heat (4), 4-2
Thunder (1) beat Warriors (8), 4-2
Lakers (2) beat Timberwolves (7), 4-3 (the Lakers refuse to be normal in the playoffs)
Nuggets (2) beat Suns (6), 4-0
Rockets (4) beat Spurs (5), 4-3
Second Round
Pistons (1) beat Hawks (5), 4-3
Cavaliers (3) beat 76ers (7), 4-1
Thunder (1) beat Rockets (4), 4-2
Nuggets (3) beat Lakers (2), 4-1
Conference Finals
Cavaliers (3) beat Pistons (1), 4-2
Thunder (1) beat Nuggets (3) 4-3 in what is called the greatest conference finals series in 20 years.
Finals
Thunder (1) beat the Cavs (3) 4-0 in what is called the worst finals series in 20 years.
Awards
Most Valuable Player
There is a decent case to be made for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander but Nikola Jokic has been mining some real gold recently so I’m giving this one to him.
Coach of the Year
JB Bickerstaff deserves this one, just in time to fumble it all away in the playoffs.
Rookie of the Year
This is a tough one! Kon Knueppel has been crushing it in the back half of this season so I’m giving it to him for narrative reasons™. If only the season were longer than 17ish games, maybe Cooper Flagg would have had time to get over his initial growing pains and flourish into a multi-threat star, but alas. The season is over.
Defensive Player of the Year
Victor Wembanyama has probably been injured for too many games to qualify but I’m giving it to him anyways. We can’t let Rudy Gobert trick us again.
Sixth Man of the Year
If I ever have an opinion on sixth man of the year, please stage an intervention. According to one of Satan’s earthly institutions Jaime Jaquez Jr. is the betting favorite.
Most Improved Player
Next year I promise to be online enough to have an opinion here. On to the next section.
Other Narratives
Draft picks are the future. Always trade your dudes for draft picks. Think about how many more future firsts the Thunder could get for all their players right now!
Everyone is hurt.
The rookies are good.
The Luka Trade was a generational mistake.
The Clippers are too old.
New all-star weekend format was so boring I can’t even tell you what happened.