Five music-tech forecasts that misfired in 2019
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View this email in your browser (|ARCHIVE|) http://hotpodnews.com/presents.... A Newsletter about Big Ideas in Music and Technology, by Cherie Hu This is issue #72, published on December 20, 2019 Happy Friday!
Hope you all have a restful, reflective and fun final stretch of 2019 ahead of you. FYI, this will be the last Water & Music issue of the year; I’ll be back with a new essay on Monday, January 6.
I’ve spent much of this week outlining my editorial schedule for next year, and would love to hear from you about what underrated stories you’d like to see published about the music business and music-tech in 2020. You can let me know either by replying directly to this email, or by filling out the Water & Music feedback survey (https://forms.gle/hfHtCusDLGCJCzHP7) if you’d prefer to stay anonymous.
Also, like with last week, today’s essay is on the longer side, so I’ve published only an introductory preview below to spare your inboxes. The full version is available to read for free on my Patreon page (https://www.patreon.com/posts/32499111) .
Thank you all for reading and supporting me this year! To a healthful, productive and happy 2020. :) Five music-tech forecasts that misfired in 2019
The fact that the 2020s is fast approaching has thrown the entire media industry into collective introspection.
Music publications are no exception, as nearly all of them at this point have openly reflected on the biggest musical moments and trends not just from the past year, but also from the past decade. Music Ally’s 42 Trends of 2019 (https://musically.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Report426-eoy-462266102.pdf) , The Atlantic’s 14 Best Music Moments of 2019 (https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2019/12/14-best-music-moments-of-2019/603757/) , Billboard’s Top 100 Moments of the EDM Decade (https://www.billboard.com/articles/news/dance/8545946/edm-greatest-moments-decade-2010s-top-100) , NME’s 10 Artists Who Defined The Decade (https://www.nme.com/features/nmes-10-artists-who-defined-the-decade-the-2010s-2583451) , Rolling Stone’s 50 Most Important Music Moments of the Decade (https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-lists/the-50-most-important-music-moments-of-the-decade-912772/) … the list goes on and on.
For my last essay of the year, I want to do something slightly different: I want to focus on what didn’t happen in the music industry in 2019.
Of course, this year brought forth several monumental changes to how we understand music economics and technology as a whole — e.g. Spotify throwing money at podcasts, TikTok cultivating “Old Town Road” and the Music Modernization Act getting signed into law.
But I also think 2019 tempered many of our positive, idealistic forecasts about digital innovation in music with a healthy dose of realism.
We learned, for instance, that distribution is actually a difficult business (https://www.billboard.com/amp/articles/business/8507827/music-distribution-business-streaming-strategy) to succeed in; that blockchain hype (https://breakermag.com/bitcoin-for-rockstars-mastermind-d-a-wallach-revisits-his-utopian-vision-for-the-music-industry/) is nothing without applications that are usable, let alone practical; and that a variety of other emerging technologies, including voice and virtual/augmented/mixed reality, have a long way to go before they really alter the ingrained, traditional ways in which we consume and monetize music today.
With that in mind, below I lay out five, tech-forward music-industry predictions that ended up flopping in 2019, and a few reasons why I think each prediction didn’t come to full fruition. (Side note: I last wrote an article in this format for Forbes in 2016 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/cheriehu/2016/12/24/3-music-industry-predictions-that-flopped-in-2016/#1c3775e42f16) , and am excited to bring it back this year.)
I’m curious to hear whether or not you agree with my analysis — feel free to respond by replying to email and it’ll go straight to me!
tl;dr — 1. Voice and smart speakers didn’t disrupt the music industry. 2. Fan clubs didn’t come back, even though people still want them to. 3. VR/AR/MR for music didn’t take off, again — although a new vocabulary is emerging around “virtual entertainment.” 4. Tidal and SoundCloud didn’t get acquired — but their core brand cachet continues to erode swiftly, amidst ongoing consolidation. 5. Musical A.I. didn’t top the Billboard charts and steal artists’ jobs.
Click here to continue reading. (https://www.patreon.com/posts/32499111) Media appearances
In spite of today’s essay, I, too, am part of the predictions industrial complex.
I contributed to Synchtank’s annual predictions roundup for 2020 (https://www.synchtank.com/blog/music-industry-analysts-on-the-trends-to-watch-in-2020/) , outlining important trends such as alternative financing for artists, the need for better audience-development tools and the question of who, if anyone, actually “runs” the music industry.
I took part in a livestreamed interview with my friend and streaming/playlist expert Mike Warner about the biggest music-tech stories of 2019, and what I expect to happen in 2020. You can watch the full video on-demand on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9trzh5dxfc) , LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/video/live/urn:li:ugcPost:6613158083202023424/) , Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/askmikewarner/videos/2480733708719863/) , Twitch (https://www.twitch.tv/videos/523265110) and Periscope (https://www.pscp.tv/w/1dRKZLQoQZzJB) . This marks my first-ever appearance on Twitch, which is neat! (ICYMI, I also interviewed Mike for my podcast (https://waterandmusic.transistor.fm/3) back in March 2019.)
I gave a bit of my input on how not to go insane this month for Bandsintown’s roundup of holiday marketing/promotion tips (https://artists.bandsintown.com/support/blog/16-music-marketing-experts-share-their-best-holiday-promotion-tips) .
The German radio station Deutschlandfunk Kultur (https://www.deutschlandfunkkultur.de/) interviewed me for a segment about the rise of newsletters in music journalism. You can listen to the full audio file here (http://imklingelpuetz.de/2019/12/06/auf-die-alte-tour-newsletter-erobern-den-musikjournalismus/) (German-language only). Good reads
The World’s Leading Artist Management Companies (https://beta.rostr.cc/blog/reports/worlds-leading-artist-management-companies) — A fascinating report, compiled by the music startup ROSTR (https://beta.rostr.cc/) , that compares the audience size, stream counts, roster size, chart positions and other characteristics of artist-management companies around the world. My favorite section is “Small But Mighty,” which introduced me to a lot of management companies that I didn’t know about previously.
A Major Music Distributor Has Stifled Vinyl Sales for Record Stores and Indie Labels (https://pitchfork.com/thepitch/a-major-music-distributor-has-stifled-vinyl-sales-for-record-stores-and-indie-labels-sources-say/) // ‘It’s a Total Nightmare’: Problems at Direct Shot Distributing Have Made New Vinyl and CDs Scarce (https://www.billboard.com/articles/business/8546794/direct-shot-distributing-problems-vinyl-cds-physical-product) — Two important features, in Pitchfork and Billboard, respectively, about the ongoing woes that major labels and independent record stores alike are facing with physical music distributor Direct Shot. A mounting backlog, indefinitely delayed shipping and internal disorganization has impacted everything from Record Store Day sales to album rollout plans from the likes of Tegan and Sara.
MUSIC x GREEN: directory for a greener music business (https://musicxgreen.com/) — A new directory, managed by MUSIC x TECH x FUTURE’s Bas Grasmayer, that aims to give more visibility to initiatives that “make the music industry greener, less impactful on the climate and ecology, and more sustainable overall.” I can personally say that this resource introduced me to a ton of new sustainability-driven music initiatives around the world, right as I was searching for ways to use my music-industry work to help combat climate change. You can read more background on why Bas launched the directory here (https://www.musicxtechxfuture.com/2019/12/20/introducing-music-x-green-directory-for-a-greener-music-business/) .
Everything is Amazing, But Nothing is Ours (https://alexdanco.com/2019/10/26/everything-is-amazing-but-nothing-is-ours/) — A thought-provoking read from VC veteran Alex Danco about the wider social and technological ramifications of subscription models governing every aspect of our lives (including but not limited to music). He makes an interesting argument in favor of future technological development embracing alternative models aside from subscription that increase our senses of both friction and ownership. Good listens
Britney (https://open.spotify.com/album/6Lfo6FmOARzNN16uw6SU1v?si=iY11LTKdSSy3deJwPnKBKA) — An EP of acoustic, airy covers of Britney Spears hits from the venerable singer-songwriter Sondre Lerche. There is a choir involved. Favorite track: “I’m Not a Girl, Not Yet a Woman.”
SUPERMAN (https://open.spotify.com/album/1wrPSdg93Y5S0kRQZNDKwJ?si=xmuLl769TW6HrpfjRmu81A) — an album from Japanese electronic group WEDNESDAY CAMPANELLA, released in 2017 through Warner Music Japan. It’s frenetic, colorful J-pop with interesting synths, percussion and harmonies you don’t often hear elsewhere. This is also the type of group whom you simply will never understand if you never watch their music videos (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCt30iKDSksaJ0hbd363ETfA) . Favorite tracks: “Aladdin” and “Kamehameha the Great.”
A Very Vulfy Christmas (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XoEyB1HIA0o) — The mashup I never knew I needed: Vulfpeck’s greatest hits re-recorded in the style of the Vince Guaraldi Trio’s A Charlie Brown Christmas. It looks like Vulfpeck member Woody Goss is dropping new tracks from the album daily on his YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1wVRtx2w72rj56EDuFJODQ) ; a full Christmas video special, animated in the style of Charlie Brown, will air on December 23. Favorite track: TBD! Epilogue
I’ll be in San Diego for vacation from January 7–12. I’m quite new to the city so if you have any recommendations for food, sights, nature, etc., please let me know! :)
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