Triple 14 — Sunday, September 13, 2026

TL;DR — the day in rail + freight.

• Week 35 (ending Sept. 5) U.S. volume came in at 533,545 carloads and intermodal units, up 13.8% year over year — carloads 234,397 (+8.9%), intermodal 299,148 (+18.0%) [1][2].
• Read the weekly print with caution: year-to-date combined volume is up just 3.6%, so a single +13.8% week is well above trend and needs a second data point before you treat it as a demand step-change [2][3].
• August set a monthly intermodal record — nearly 297,000 weekly containers and trailers on average, +4.4% year over year and the seventh straight year of August gains [4]. Capacity is being absorbed.
• Coal remains the lone drag: down 3,547 cars to 58,037 in week 35, against gains in nine of ten carload groups [2].
• Regulatory center of gravity stays on UP–NS (STB FD 36873), which sits in abeyance behind a full EIS with the statutory evidentiary clock unresolved on the record [5].

Market snapshot — rail + intermodal rates, volumes, capacity.

Week 35 was broad-based. Nine of ten carload commodity groups posted year-over-year gains, led by metallic ores and metals (+4,859 to 23,122), grain (+4,373 to 22,509) and chemicals (+3,848 to 33,653). Coal was the sole decliner, off 3,547 cars to 58,037 [2]. Intermodal carried the headline number at 299,148 units, +18.0% [1][2].

Cumulative volume through 35 weeks: U.S. carloads 7,986,328 (+2.8%), intermodal 9,904,325 (+4.2%), combined 17,890,653 (+3.6%) [2][3]. The spread between the weekly and year-to-date figures is the number to hold onto — the trend line is a mid-single-digit market, not a double-digit one.

North America-wide, nine reporting railroads moved 727,511 units in week 35, up 12.4%, with Canadian carloads +10.4% and Mexican carloads down 7.4% [2]. On the monthly view, AAR reported U.S. railroads averaged nearly 297,000 weekly intermodal containers and trailers in August, up 4.4% annually and a new monthly record that beat June 2026 [4].

Rates: no fetched source this cycle supports ramp-to-ramp or door-to-door intermodal pricing, spot intermodal benchmarks, truckload spot rates, or box and chassis availability. No rate call is filed today.

Service advisories — Class I disruptions: weather, derailments, labor, maintenance windows.

No material development in the fetched sources this cycle — and no current EP 770 velocity, terminal dwell or cars-online readings are citable today.

Port congestion — major ports (LA/LB, NY/NJ, Savannah, Houston): dwell, backups, chassis.

No material development in the fetched sources this cycle.

Regulatory — STB rulings, demurrage rules, tariffs, policy.

The live docket is the UP–NS transcontinental merger, STB Finance Docket No. FD 36873. The acceptance notice published May 29, 2026 (91 FR 32171). Decision No. 21 (May 28, 2026) accepted the application, ordered a full environmental impact statement plus nine supplemental issues, and placed the proceeding in abeyance — suspending the Board's own procedural schedule while resting on § 1321(b)(3) information-gathering authority rather than the § 11325(b)(3) one-year evidentiary clock. The practical effect: the statutory clock is established neither as paused nor as running, and no party has put that question on the record [5]. On the plain terms of § 11325(b)(3), the evidentiary record would close around May 29, 2027 with a decision due by late August 2027; applicants are targeting mid-2027 [5].

Worth tracking as precedent: on July 21, 2026 the Board denied two BNSF petitions seeking to serve shipper facilities under the 1996 UP–SP merger access conditions (Decisions 53046 and 53058, Granite Mountain Quarries and Colorado Materials) [5]. Thirty-year-old merger conditions are still being litigated facility by facility — a direct read on how durable and how granular any 2-to-1 or 3-to-2 access conditions in FD 36873 would prove in practice.

No STB demurrage or accessorial rulemaking activity appears in the fetched sources this cycle.

Signals worth watching — what to track next.

1. Week 36 AAR print (Wednesday). The single most important number this week: whether intermodal holds anywhere near +18% or reverts toward the +4.2% year-to-date pace. One week does not make a trend; two might.
2. Coal's slope. It was the only declining group in week 35 [2]. Sustained erosion changes network fluidity and equipment cycling assumptions on the eastern roads more than the headline number suggests.
3. Post-record intermodal capacity. August set a monthly record on volume [4]. Watch whether ramps and box pools absorb a September peak at that run rate, or whether tightness shows up first in dray and chassis rather than linehaul.
4. FD 36873 clock question. If any party moves to establish whether the § 11325(b)(3) evidentiary clock is running during abeyance, the whole 2027 timeline repositions [5].
5. Mexican carload weakness. Down 7.4% year over year in week 35 [2] against Canadian strength of +10.4% — a cross-border divergence worth monitoring against trade-policy developments.

Sources

1. AAR Reports Weekly Rail Traffic for the Week Ending September 5, 2026 — https://www.aar.org/news/aar-reports-weekly-rail-traffic-for-the-week-ending-september-5-2026/
2. AAR reports rail traffic for the week ending September 05, 2026 (AJOT, Sep. 10, 2026) — https://www.ajot.com/news/aar-reports-rail-traffic-for-the-week-ending-september-05-2026
3. US freight railroads logged increased traffic in week 35 (Progressive Railroading, Sep. 10, 2026) — https://www.progressiverailroading.com/intermodal/news/US-freight-railroads-logged-increased-traffic-in-week-35--77719
4. U.S. rail carload and intermodal momentum continues in August, reports AAR (Logistics Management, Sep. 10, 2026) — https://www.logisticsmgmt.com/article/u.s_rail_carload_and_intermodal_momentum_continues_in_august_reports_aar
5. UP–NS Merger Timeline & Docket Tracker (STB FD 36873), SteelWheels.Co — https://steelwheels.co/mergertracker/