59 - Dynastic Thinking
Welcome, ! A longer read today - I was trying to summarise a few things I've been thinking about at the same time, so grab a cuppa and have a read when you have more time :)
I wanted to break down a few examples of what I'm terming 'dynastic thinking' - which is like 'long-term thinking', except...longer. It's something I find extremely powerful when looking into history - and wonder why it's gone from our society (somewhat) today.
Saudi Aramco - The Story of the Oil Kingdom
I think this was in one my recommends a few weeks a go - Saudi Inc - which tells the story of the rise of the Saudi Arabian kingdom, and how they established themselves as an oil powerhouse through the company Saudi Aramco.
Abdul Aziz ibn Saud, the first king of Saudi Arabia, started out as the heir of an exiled tribe. He slowly fought neighbouring tribes for over 30 years, conquering more and more territory across the Arabian peninsula, including Mecca, until he consolidated his power and called his land Saudi Arabia.
From there, he was approached by American oilmen who wanted to exploit the land and see if they could find any oil. At the time, the kingdom had no capabilities or resources to actually go searching for this oil, if it existed at all, and so they wrote a concession agreement (a licensing payment from the Americans in exchange for mining rights, and minor profit sharing if oil was found), helping them set up Aramco - and they struck black gold after 5 long years.
The profit sharing agreement allowed Saudi Arabia to invest in education, infrastructure and technology, a natural consequence of the fact that kings had to show their power to the tribes they had joined together by spending and sharing their wealth; if they did not, tribes could very easily up and leave, or even consider a coup of the leadership. Al Saud's reign, as well as that of his sons, swung wildly from over-spending, to austerity conditions, to investing heavily in their population. Though their fiscal situation was at time precarious, these investments made the population smarter, faster, and more able to take control of business negotiations.
After 15 years of their initial arrangement, the kingdom shrewdly negotiated for a much higher profit share in Aramco - a 50-50 split of profits that was unprecedented in the Middle East. Their finance minister at the time knew that this move was required to help lay the foundations for the kingdom's future.
However, it was 20 years after THAT before they made their move to essentially purchase Aramco (to become what we know today as Saudi Aramco), and place its ownership squarely in the kingdom's control. This also helped increase their power on a global stage, wielding their control over oil at OPEC to determine oil prices globally.
Through all of this, Saudi Arabians were sent to universities overseas and returned to high ranking government positions where they were instantly responsible for building infrastructure, implementing new fiscal policies and turning their new-found knowledge to good use; essentially, banding together to help build a kingdom. Most importantly, they were placed in positions of power for Saudi Aramco, now controlled by the Saudi Royal Family, and that power is the backbone of the kingdom.
Lesson: I know I've kind of rushed the history here, and taken out a lot of nuance in family dynamics and American business dealings, but the key thing I took from the story was that having a family, a kingdom, a dynasty to look after changes how you think about the future. Succession, legacy, and how to lay the path forward for those after you becomes much more important. The way you think is not about what's going to get you elected next (i.e. 4 year election cycles), it's about what will happen with your country 100+ years in the future. It requires years of patience; the kingdom spent 40-45 years working with Aramco before they took over, and in the process modernized their population at a frightful pace.
I won't pretend that Saudi Arabia is a prime example of how one should run a country; there are a LOT of things that they have done that are incredibly bad. But lessons can still be learnt from the example - namely, that patience is a virtue.
China - The New Silk Road (Belt and Road project)
The Belt and Road project is essentially a multi-national infrastructure project that is aiming to connect countries to a new 'Silk Road'. To do this, China invests in global infrastructure projects all over the world (such as ports, factories, power grids, railway lines, shipping lines and roads), and aims to connect Asia, Europe and Africa together. The ancillary benefit is that it gets to dictate the standards being used - and wouldn't you know it? They're all Chinese.
All roads lead to Rome, eh?
Their thinking is strategic - they'll take the short term hit for a long long LONG term gain. I mean, this investment is incredibly ambitious - the Belt and Road project won't be done for another 50 - 100 years, and its benefits won't be realised for another 100 years after that. Many of the people working on it now probably won't be alive, and the world will be a much different place when it is complete.
But that ambition - that legacy; can you imagine something so visionary being created here in Australia? The vision is clear, setting up the future for their children and solidifying China's power across the world. They don't need to rush - they just need to wait.
Lesson: This type of thinking is endemic in Chinese culture. Dynasties ruled for hundreds and hundreds of years across many emperors, building monuments, palaces and temples that have lasted centuries. Yes, there were coups and uprisings, but there was always a focus on legacy - literal dynastic thinking.
Again, I don't want to defend China's record on human rights or any of the atrocious things they've done in the past (or even currently). But you cannot deny that they are effective in what they're doing - such ambition and vision can only come from a centralized government that does what it wants.
Australia - The Bloody NBN
You know I was gonna come home for this, right?
When the NBN was announced, the two plans of Labor and Liberal were compared, contrasted, and our current plan was ultimately won on cost. The bottom line of our nation would suffer less, but I mean, it sucks. We're nowhere near the speed or quality of Asian nations, and now that Elon Musk is launching Starlink - satellite internet around the world at super-high speeds - is cable even the way of the future?
Look, I understand that there's a balance between cost, and value, and the fact that we might have to have gone into debt for such a large investment in infrastructure. But for something that's the backbone of the future, isn't the cost worth it? We knew at the time that the speeds weren't going to be future-proofed for many years, and yet we still did it.
I know democracies have been described as the 'least worst form of government we've tried', but when I see opposition leaders that are only attack dogs, and aren't constructively trying to progress the nation, it exposes weaknesses in the system - namely, that shit doesn't get done because people can't see past their own politics. The system's supposed to be a check and balance on power, a mutual discussion on what the best way forward is, but I only see arguments splitting hairs rather than constructive progress.
Though I loathe to seem like I support centralized power, I have to acknowledge that when governments are singular / have one vision (e.g. the Saudi Royal Family / the CCP), they can really get shit done. Even in Australia, when governments had control of both houses, they were able to push through a whole lot of legislation we take for granted these days; Medicare, superannuation, the GST...
Lesson: When you have to worry about 4 year elections, your vision for the future shortens considerably. It's a necessary evil to enjoy the fact we have the freedom to vote, but it makes me feel incredibly...bored. Where's the nation actually going? What direction are we trying to work towards?
Dynasties know that having a vision - somewhere to go - is better when you have the mandate to make it happen. All you need to do is be patient and see the plan through.
I think about this often.
Chat soon :)
✔️ Real Life Recommendations
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Send your name to Mars - I signed up for this and sent my name with the Perseverance rover up to Mars. It's thrilling to see space be explored; a small step towards the worlds of science fiction.
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Dynasty Warriors - sneaking some gaming in here - it's essentially a hack-and-slash game that tells the story of the Romance of the Three Kingdoms, a particularly interesting part of Chinese history full of heroes and villains. I picked this up to play through again to turn off my brain for a bit, and it's every bit as satisfying as I remember. I learnt so much history about the Three Kingdoms through this game, even though I was focussed on the cool combos, weapons and skills; Dad was always able to give me more context on the story part of it. Bonding! You love to see it.
🚌 Adventures on the Information Super-Highway
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Six Ways to think Long Term - really great read from the Long Now foundation - an organisation doing thinking for a framework for the very far future - 10,000 years in fact. If you've heard of the clock that ticks once every 10,000 years - this is them! I love the concept of 'Cathedral Thinking' - planning projects beyond a human lifetime. While I was in Europe, walking into each of those beautiful, dark, Gothic churches, I thought about all the people who started the project, but never saw it to completion. Absolutely fascinating.
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Long Bets - a website that hosts long-term bets in public; the most famous one being Warren Buffet vs a fund manager:
“Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S&P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”
Buffet won, of course.
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Theoretical Physicists say 90% chance of societal collapse within several decades - classic doomsday article, but it's pretty telling that these sorts of things are possible within my own lifetime. Can we all get with the program yet?