February 1, 2023

172 - Checking in on Predictions 🔮

Hey there, !

I completely forgot about doing this, and I wanted to see what the results were. The timing is off by a bit (it was supposed to be in a year) but I missed these by like half a year. That ain't too bad - so let's see how I did.

Here goes!

World Events

1. Bitcoin hits AU$200,000 - 65% INCORRECT
2. Vince buys an NFT - 25% (definitely a world event) INCORRECT
3. A war is waged over water rights somewhere in the world - 25% TECHNICALLY INCORRECT - apparently there have been water conflicts but not full on wars. Unless Ukraine/Russia was about water...?
4. A non-vaccinatable COVID variant arises - 33% - INCORRECT - at least, not according to what I know about COVID right now!
5. A general purpose AI has been created - 5% - INCORRECT - this one was FASCINATING though, because chatGPT came seemingly out of nowhere, and though it is not general purpose, it's a major step forward in conversational AI.

Personal

1. I get the COVID vaccine - 95% - CORRECT
2. I have renovated the bathroom in my new place - 90% - CORRECT - though technically by when I was supposed to assess this it hadn't been completed yet. But it is right now!
3. I have renovated the kitchen in my new place - 70% - CORRECT - again, technically wasn't renovated when I was SUPPOSED to assess this, but it is now.
4. Feleafcia is still alive - 65% - CORRECT - though she's only got like 5 leaves left :( still alive though!
5. This newsletter is still regularly updated on a weekly schedule - 60% - CORRECT - Still weekly! Had a break but that's an annual normal thing
6. I have started a second newsletter / blog / other content stream - 50% - INCORRECT - I was so bullish about this, and I spent time setting up another newsletter to do explainers, but I couldn't find enough stuff to explain that wouldn't just fit in THIS newsletter. So yeah - on the hunt for the next content thing to create :)
7. I am addicted to an online game - 10% - INCORRECT - so this was a good prediction. I don't usually get addicted to games though so that's good.
8. I can deadlift 150kg - 33% - INCORRECT - YIKES what kind of highly motivated Vince was thinking he was going to be able to do this?!
9. I travel to the UK to see Steph - 45% - INCORRECT - I definitely thought I would have done this! But the pandemic and work got in the way :( Luckily this will be rectified this year!
10. Steph returns to Australia - 30% - CORRECT
11. I have 3D printed boardgame parts for 5+ games - 80% - CORRECT
12. I spend more than 3 days at home per week for work - 75% - PARTIALLY CORRECT - depended on the project - at the moment it's a bit more WFH, but this changes. So I rated it partially correct
13. I drive to work - 20% - INCORRECT - well, duh
14. I write and finish a book - 5% - INCORRECT :(
15. I purchase 10 or less Kickstarter games - 10% - CORRECT - but it's not much better since I bought 8 of them since then...
16. I sell or give away 10 or more boardgames - 70% - CORRECT - I definitely did this since!
17. I have joined a choir - 30% - INCORRECT
18. I have joined a chess club - 30% - INCORRECT
19. I have joined a boardgame meetup group - 10% - PARTIALLY CORRECT - I've been to some meetups, so that's good!
20. I cut my own fruit like a real adult after dinner for myself - -50% - INCORRECT - I just know myself very well.

Insights:

• I'm really bad at predicting world events, and pretty good at personal stuff! (wow, groundbreaking)

• I think I was VERY optimistic about my fitness and health goals - probably something to reflect on actually making them REAL in the coming year

• Anything that required timing, or was something that others were doing (i.e. the renovation) was underestimated; I think if I had actually done it on the year basis like I said, it would not have been complete - is this a me thing? or an external thing? Who knows...O_O

• Lots of projects (like writing a novel, going to new things, or opening a new stream of content) were very optimistic - I think the bottom line is just that life and habits don't change that much over time!...or maybe they will now I've moved into a new house(?)

Chat soon :)

Let me know if you have any feedback for the newsletter!

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✔️ Real Life Recommendations

1. It's a Wonderful Life - I went and watched it! I loved it - it was so heartwarming, and though it wasn't specifically a Christmas movie, it was just a lovely watch. Very 1940's, hardship wise and all, with a guy who's just havin' a bit of a Bad Day. Highly recommended (I think it's on Stan at the moment?)!

2. The Seven Moons of Maali Almeida - by Shehan Karunatilaka, winner of the 2022 Booker Prize. It's a story about Maali Almeida, a war photographer, who has died, and has 7 moons to solve the mystery of his own death. It's a bit of a rough start, but it's a magnificent ride along the way, especially learning about the Sri Lankan Civil War and the atrocities contained within it. It has this weird way of being slightly off-kilter because there are so many cultural things I just don't know anything about, and there's this simmering anger at, well, everything that was happening in Sri Lanka. I loved the writing but I will say the weirdness of the start was a bit jarring - though I guess that's what I'm looking for by reading non-West authors. So...I guess an 8/10 overall? Still quite highly recommended!

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🚌 Adventures on the Information Super-Highway

1. I Taught ChatGPT to Invent a Language - I think the impressive part of this is that there is memory to the conversation you have with chatGPT, but also that it knows how to fill in the blanks and infer things as well. I wonder if this kind of AI was used to break any cryptography type things?

2. How we caught my sister's Bumble Stalker - terrifying to see, but awesome to read. A lot of detective and investigative work, including a stake-out!

3. An entomologist rates ant emojis - we're back again with emojis that are weird and or wrong for whatever reason!