141 - Too Many Thoughts About Netflix 🎬📺💻
or: Vince Writes About Streaming Platforms Without Knowing Shit.
Damn I wrote a lot here - birthday privileges I guess? If you’re ready for it, strap in. If not, skip to the end for links :D
One of the things I’ve been feeling lately is that there’s both too much content, and too much average content. I spend a lot more time trying to find something good to watch across Netflix, BINGE, Disney+ or Stan…and though I see things that I kind of am interested in, I don’t ever then take the plunge to then say ‘yeah I need to watch that now’.
Instead, I’ll spend a bunch of time adding to My List on each platform, and then say ‘yeah sure I’ll watch that later’…and then maybe I’ll watch it when I have COVID.
Which, yeah, that was the right time for it.
I have a few different thoughts about the streaming platforms, so let’s dive in!
1. What’s happening with Netflix?
It’s…not doing well, hey? Talk of ads, of making people pay for password sharing, declining streaming revenues and volumes, and the massive slide in share price - it doesn’t paint a very rosy picture for Netflix’s future. I’ve read / skimmed articles where they’ve talked about integrating gaming onto their platform, or merch stores for their big hits - but none of it really speaks to a considered approach in developing a vision that’s going to help them reign supreme.
The darling of the streaming world has been reduced to the ‘default’ streaming service (at least, in my eyes) for many people who knew it as the first mover - but it’s quite clear that its first mover advantage hasn’t been able to keep ahead of the pack.
I’m sort of likening it to Snapchat which…well, maybe I’m not the target market, but once Instagram took hold of the Stories concept, Snap seemed to move into oblivion (competition pressures). Somewhat surprisingly, Gen Z is still keeping it alive (they know the value of privacy I guess…?) Interesting sidenote though, Snap is still coming up with random products and services like Snap glasses - their latest one being a cheap camera drone that can follow you around! Will Netflix continue to innovate as well?
Netflix’s first advantage was solving the distribution problem for streaming - and even to this day has one of the more robust technology frameworks for adapting to your network speed and location (Their developer blogs seem very comprehensive, technical, and complete gibberish to me - so they’re probably experts). They were able to work out the right business model (subscription) for this distribution concept, and reaped the rewards early as first mover.
However, as other streaming services have come online, it’s become increasingly clear that content is king. I remember that when Disney+ was announced, I knew I would be holding on to that for dear life; it owns so many of the key intellectual properties (Star Wars, Marvel, Pixar) that the value of the subscription is much higher than the sporadic offerings that the other streaming services are able to provide.
While Netflix has intermittently released big hits (Queen’s Gambit, Squid Game), Disney has focused on further investment in existing worlds that people already have investment in. If you’re invested in the MCU, here - have a bunch of miniseries to explore different characters, stories, and formats of telling those stories. If you’re invested in Star Wars - wow, Kenobi is coming out soon and did you see The Mandalorian?!
Disney’s flywheel, dreamed up by Walt Disney in 1957, is just that good.
Think about this diagram in terms of Netflix. How can I get invested in a Queen’s Gambit world further than the story that is told? Is there really a Squid Game universe I can delve into? (Would I want to?!)
One of their key original series, Stranger Things, doesn’t have enough non-TV related merch or tie-ins that would help people stay invested in the world, and though people will keep watching it if they have Netflix, I don’t know if people still care that much?
Unfortunately, without a tight content strategy for their original movies / tv series, it’s difficult to create the investment for people to continuously come back.
Note: This is technically also a problem for places like Amazon or Apple - though they may have other competitive advantages for their services (they create stickiness with other products by providing a streaming service - Prime / iPhones etc.)
2. Studios and cash and content
Sounds like I’m bashing Netflix a bit - let’s try to say something nice.
I do think Netflix has been an absolute champion in ushering in a new age of content.
Without Netflix being the first mover who was able to prove that people would definitely like to be at home, and not pirate content if they could get it for a manageable price every week, there might not be Disney+, or Prime, or Apple etc. These services weren’t really on the horizon until Netflix exploded in popularity with their own original series and proved the business model - House of Cards, Orange is the New Black etc.
What this did was show that there was an appetite for content - especially bingeable, Netflix-type shows that people would ravenously consume with their ‘limited’ attention spans. Studios and new distribution networks were able to squeeze extremely generous portions of money to actors, screenplays, story rights, film stars, directors - all to cook up stories and stories and stories for the hungry mob. Amazon has spent buttloads of money on their content - LOTR, The Boys, The Expanse. Apple+ is killing it with things like Ted Lasso and Severance, but also that show with Jennifer Anniston and Steve Carrell where they got absolutely paaaaaid?
This, by the way, has been HBO’s strategy for the longest time - they focus on less shows per year, but really good ones that people want to come back to over and over again. Westworld, Game of Thrones (though this didn’t end super well), Succession, The Sopranos, The Wire - all extremely high quality, great shows that kept HBO going even as Netflix seemed to brush past them.
Even if Netflix gets overtaken in terms of original content, their impact on the market can’t be undersold - without them, we don’t have the near unlimited amounts of money flowing into creating streaming content, and telling stories from the multi-faceted lenses they deserve.
3. Channel Fragmentation
Here, you might think I’ll talk about ‘wow there are so many different channels - almost like my TV except I have to pay for them all’. Which, yes, there are so many different channels, and it’s almost like I flip through them like TV channels, except I have to pay for them all!
But you already know that, so instead I wanted to talk about fragmentation in terms of interests.
The advent of the Internet meant that we were able to find our little niches online, able to hide away and indulge in them without needing to be judged for who we are or what we wanted to do. Reddit is the ultimate product of this, providing subreddits tailored to any and every interest you can think of (barring hate and harrassment type subreddits - though you could probably go to 4chan for this).
Streaming services are extremely similar in their content curation / discovery. The algorithms find out what you like to watch, and then put you in a lil’ corner with all your favourite shows, as well as the ones that they’ll know you’ll like as well. Reality TV? Here you go! Action/Comedy/Thriller? Here’s a crapton of related movies since you watched ‘The Matrix’ once.
Niches are built incredibly quickly, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the data was being used by studios to literally tailor shows to what you want to watch. How could a show based on chess become one of the hottest shows during the pandemic? What kind of trickery was it able to play on all of us?!
(The easy explanation is that they were just able to pop it in front of all of us, just like Squid Game, and we all just watched it because we heard other people liked watching it - and also it dealt with some rather adult themes and had great first episodes that made you keep watching. But there could be something else right?)
But with niches and algorithms comes problems of siloed discovery. I don’t find out what’s in the romcom space (I don’t think Bridgerton ever got recommended to me?) but what’s to say that I wouldn’t like it? Sure, I don’t like horror that much, but sometimes I do?
This is the larger problem of our minds being hammered into different little niches - it becomes difficult to discover something that we didn’t know we would like, but now we love. Things that we watch are what we like, but are they things we can connect with other people on as well? How do we explore the world without having the same point of reference as other people (so that they can give us points of comparison) and letting algorithms suggest these viewing choices for us?
4. The Big Thing We All Watch
This culminates in one of the bigger ideas I’ve had for streaming services in general - there’s no more One Big Thing We All Watch. Sitcoms from the 90s, reality tv shows, early 00’s movies - they all became part of the public consciousness because really, you only had like 3-5 real choices on your TV of things to watch, or movies that were playing at any one time. There wasn’t an online forum where you could burn out on a movie because all the hot takes have been taken, or online streaming services where you could switch to another type of content and quickly move on to the Next Kinda Cool But Kinda Average tv series.
The beauty of big franchises back in the day is that you had to mull over and discuss things in person over long periods of time. I often can’t remember what the last TV show I watched on a streaming service is, because I’ve moved on so quickly. When I was young, I watched Star Wars and imagined fighting with lightsabers literally for months - I made paper versions of lightsabers that sagged after a while, but lit the fire for my imagination in that world. I bought a LOTR elven cape because I wanted to be like one of the Hobbits - and wielded a knock-off Sting to finish the part. It was all I could think of for months at a time!
But I don’t think we really have that. Or if we do, it’s rare.
Game of Thrones was, I think, the last Big Thing We All Watched because it lasted so long, and had such a sway over the public consciousness. People would reference it in daily conversation, we used #ruddwedding in Australia, and quoted lines from the series ad nauseaum (‘Winter is Coming’ blah blah blah). The way it ended has sullied its name forever, but it was still something that became super popular and persisted.
There must be a PhD thesis somewhere that tracks the longevity of popular culture references in the public consciousness - I’m sure of it. And my hypothesis is that that longevity is rapidly decreasing for subsequent ‘hits’ (when’s the last time someone referenced Squid Game?).
Because we watch things in niches, we can’t easily find other people who have those same niches. If we can’t, we’ll recommend things to our friends, who might not find that interesting enough to even start watching, because it’s not something that they’re used to watching and hey, I could watch It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia or The Office for the 30th time instead.
Furthermore, because there’s no critical mass to propel it into the public consciousness and have everyone know about it, there’s no staying power. You don’t have it impact enough people because, again, niches.
I think about the 80s and 90s sitcoms that had such a hold over people - Friends or Seinfeld or Frasier that people watched religiously every week and millions of people tuned in for - we don’t really have that any more.
Is that a shame? I don’t know. Our lives are certainly more convenient, but I feel like we’ve just…missed something, y’know?
(The main counter-example for this is the MCU - which has a multi-format channel and content strategy related to films and tv series that keep the Marvel engine chugging along. It’s probably the closest thing to the One Big Thing We All Watch, but even then, people have got bored with trying to follow every little crumb of it - maybe to Marvel’s detriment).
5. Conclusion?
Don’t really know, to be honest. These are pretty much stream of consciousness pieces where I word-vomit on to you regarding something I’ve been ruminating on :D I had a lot more I wanted to say about:
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the international content that Netflix is absolutely crushing - no other streaming service can compete with the selection that’s there
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the tech behind the platforms being an interesting way to look at competitive advantage - does faster mean it’s better?
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the content acquisition strategy of existing movies and tv shows - and finding the right mix that help you succeed (a.k.a. what the fuck is happening with Paramount+??)
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the continuous binge-ability of easy-to-watch sitcoms (like the Office or Brooklyn 99) being a potential driver for people to keep their subscriptions even if you don’t have that many original series
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cancelling series too quickly - i.e. the Netflix 2-season promise - but then binning it after people get invested - meaning that people stop believing in series until they’re popular, but they don’t get popular because everyone’s waiting for everyone else to watch it
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localised versions of streaming platforms and how they are impacted (e.g. Stan with their original series, or BINGE being essentially a Foxtel front)
…but this piece is already long enough. Hopefully you can pan for some golden nuggets up above.
tl;dr - Netflix strategy bad (but thank you for turning on the money engine), Disney strategy good (but duh). People live in niche little hobbit holes which prevents the One Big Thing To Watch taking over.
Chat soon :)
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✔️Real Life Recommendations
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Amazon Unbound - by Brad Stone, who also wrote the Everything Store (another book about Amazon), writing about the transformation and history of Amazon and how it has become a trillion dollar company. To be fair, I haven’t finished this one yet, but it’s been a riveting read; there are stories upon stories about the development of key products (like Amazon Go, or the Echo) which paint a picture of an insanely detailed yet highly idealistic CEO with laser-like focus and context-switching - the number of times it says ‘Bezos focused on X product intimately’ was too damn high for the amount of time a person has in their life. Highly recommend if you enjoy reading about these businesses and realising these guys are kinda sociopathic.
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David & Camy’s Dumpling Restaurant - cheap and cheerful place in Box Hill. Delicious dumplings, great prices, and the distinctive dirtiness of a great Asian eatery. Check it out if you’re around!
🚌 Adventures on the Information Super-Highway
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Google Imagen - if you’ve been following along with these, here’s Google’s response to DALL-E 2! I’m still scouring the net to see if I can find anything on the particular differences between them; the ones they’ve cherrypicked for comparison seem pretty freakin’ good. I do wonder what the endgame is for these things - especially with deepfakes that are already hard to distinguish!
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The plane that accidentally flew around the world - it’s a really cool write-up, but if you don’t care, it’s because of Pearl Harbour (that they couldn’t go the route they wanted to) and that they had to land at specific places to refuel. Long read but very interesting!
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How to live a healthy, happy life - surrounding yourself with good people, a healthy community and great friends. Proved with SCIENCE (kinda).