Second-order thinking and the 10-10-10 rule
Hi there,
It's Adam from Untools.co. I hope you enjoyed the previous newsletter on first-principles thinking. In this edition, we’ll look at one of the most popular decision making frameworks from Untools.
Thinking tools 101: Second-order thinking
We often make decisions based on immediate outcomes without considering what happens next. This is first-order thinking, and it's the default mode for many of us. Second-order thinking takes it further by asking: "And then what?"
Second-order thinking is about considering the consequences of your consequences. It helps you spot potential problems before they arise and identify opportunities others might miss.
How to apply second-order thinking:
Identify the immediate effects of a decision (first-order)
For each effect, ask "And then what might happen?"
Consider the second, third, and nth-order consequences
Look for unintended side effects and feedback loops
Let me share a few practical examples:
Example 1: Diet decision
First-order thinking: "I'll stop eating carbs to lose weight quickly."
Second-order thinking: "Cutting all carbs could lead to quick weight loss at first, but it might also cause energy crashes that will affect my focus at work. I could also have strong cravings and risk binge-eating. Maybe I should consider a more balanced approach to make it more sustainable."
Example 2: Productivity
First-order thinking: "I'll check emails only once a day to be more productive."
Second-order thinking: "Checking emails once daily will give me more focused time, but it might also delay urgent requests, potentially frustrating colleagues or clients. Some people might start sending messages through other channels or scheduling more meetings. With more meetings, I could end up with even less focus than in the first place."
Example 3: Hiring
First-order thinking: "We should hire the candidate with the most experience."
Second-order thinking: "The most experienced person will sure bring great skills, but they might also be set in their ways which could clash with the rest of the team. We’d have to make sure the role is challenging enough, otherwise they could get bored and leave quickly. Let’s make sure their ways of working match the team’s before moving on."
Template for second-order thinking
To help you apply this thinking tool, I've created a template that helps you use it for important decisions.
Get this template in one of the template bundles as PDF or in Notion.
The 10-10-10 rule: looking at decisions through different timeframes
This is a different frame for the same idea of considering longer-term impacts of our decisions. Sometimes, we get caught up in the immediacy of a decision and forget to consider its long-term implications. The 10-10-10 rule is a simple framework developed by Suzy Welch.
When facing a decision, ask yourself:
How will this make me feel in 10 minutes?
How will this make me feel in 10 months?
How will this make me feel in 10 years?
These simple questions force you to consider the long-term consequences of what might otherwise be impulsive decisions. For instance:
Eating that chocolate bar instead of a piece of fruit might feel great in 10 minutes.
In 10 months, if it became a habit, you might feel regret.
In 10 years, the cumulative bad impact on your health would be significant.
The 10-10-10 rule pairs perfectly with second-order thinking. While second-order thinking helps you map out the chain of consequences, the 10-10-10 rule helps you evaluate them across different time horizons.
Coming up for Vault 💎 members: How to prevent failure before it happens
Next week, I’m starting Untools Vault: collection of member-only content with a monthly premium newsletter.
Every month, I will share a deep dive on a chosen topic, framework or thinking tool, including practical guides and templates. And members will have access to an ever-growing vault of premium content.
Next week, members will get a post on prospective hindsight. Here’s a small teaser:
In 1989, researchers Mitchell, Russo, and Pennington conducted a study about how people explain events differently depending on whether they view them as uncertain future possibilities or certain past events.
They discovered something fascinating: when people imagine a future event as if it already happened with certainty, they generate more reasons for the outcome and think about in more detail.
The key insight is certainty – when people explain outcomes they consider certain, they:
Generate significantly more reasons for the outcome
Provide more specific, action-based explanations rather than abstract factors
Process the information more efficiently
Want to learn how to apply this to help with your future projects? In the premium post, I'll share a how-to guide together with a template.
First 100 members can lock in an introduction price of $5USD/month before it goes up.
Coming next
Next time, we’ll explore integrative thinking and how to move beyond either/or choices when dealing with complex problems.
In the meantime, if you have any thoughts on second-order thinking or feedback on this newsletter, hit reply – I'd love to hear from you!
Have a great day,
Adam