Tiny Letter #3
An interview with Bill Gates, who saw this coming
ARS Technica has a great interview with Bill Gates about the pandemic response, or lack thereof. I know you all are probably tired of reading everything and anything about this topic, but I found this interview particularly engaging. Gates' brilliance is clearly demonstrated here.
At this point, are you optimistic?
Yes. You have to admit there’s been trillions of dollars of economic damage done and a lot of debts, but the innovation pipeline on scaling up diagnostics, on new therapeutics, on vaccines is actually quite impressive. And that makes me feel like, for the rich world, we should largely be able to end this thing by the end of 2021, and for the world at large by the end of 2022.
His sounding of the early warning regarding pandemics makes it especially ironic that there are conspiracy theories floating around suggesting he is somehow to blame for this current mess. That's like blaming your fire department for arson.
In praise of compact discs
Folks who know me may remember that I still listen to, and buy, CDs. In this era of streaming everything, audio and video on-demand - “Hey, I wonder if I can find the second episode of ‘Soul Train’ online?” (Yes, you probably can.) - I still favor them. Here's why.
Intentionality. When I put on a CD, or even a handful of them in the changer, I know exactly what I'm going to listen to. I choose it, and it plays. I might shuffle the order, but I know what I'm getting.
One thing at a time, dedicated device. My CD player does only one thing. I will never, ever have a Chopin étude interrupted by an ad for orthotics. (Orthotics are actually pretty good, but I don't want to hear about them in the middle of a beautiful piano piece.)
Reliability. I have spent frustrating minutes, and watched people spend even more time than that trying to get one service or another to do what they want. Unless a CD is damaged, or my player suddenly breaks, it always works. I put it in, and music comes out. Every time. No Wi-Fi, no configuration, nothing.
Better quality. Of course, it helps to have a good stereo system. As an old friend pointed out, speakers that were very good quality 20 years ago are probably still very good quality today. My system is very old, but it still sounds better than any soundbar or portable device. In fact, you can get a very high quality stereo system today for a song, locally or on eBay.
Cover art and lyrics. I don't want to spend a single minute longer staring at a screen than I choose. I certainly don't want to scroll through more ads for orthotics, or whatever crap the world of algorithms thinks I want to buy today, while I am trying to discern the meaning of a Joni Mitchell song. Although CDs are still inferior to vinyl in terms of visual appeal, they still often come with good art and lyric booklets.
A few disadvantages
Well, yes, not so portable. They take up space, although unless you are a true music hound, you can fit a lot of CDs in a small space.
They don't stream. I don't consider this a big deal, because I can just rip them to MP3s and then load that music on whatever device I want.
I know CDs are almost dead. Many artists have stopped releasing them, though if you want a box set from an established artist, you can often find that. I'm not sure these words will persuade anyone to return to the CD era, but I will sure miss them when they're gone.
On the "far-left”, groupthink, and political correctness
I identify as a progressive, and generally favor moving the country closer to Denmark and further from the predatory-capitalism-driven disaster it is currently, and I believe in the full enfranchisement of humans, regardless of skin color, sexual or gender identity.
However, there is a strain of the left that is alien to me. It is characterized by groupthink, political correctness, and cancel culture. I think this has always existed along the fringes, but in the age of social media, extremist voices often punch above their weight.
Writer Abigail Shrier was interviewed on the Joe Rogan podcast regarding a social trend. In short, she says that some groups of teenage girls are drawn to declare themselves trans, and seek to transition, sometimes taking powerful hormones at a young age. Shrier likens this to a contagion, spread by influencers (oh, how I hate that word, but it applies here) on social media.
I listened to the entire discussion, and I did not find it anti-trans. Both guests repeatedly disavowed this viewpoint. Rogan, for his part, can come off as a bit of a meathead, but he is not, in my view, a trans-hating conservative.
Disclaimer: I have not read the book, nor dug into the validity of the research.
I should also add that I am troubled by the people the writer chose to provide book and endorsements/blurbs - they are mostly conservative, and some seem like folks who would like this book because it confirms a larger narrative for them, that being transgender is not “a real thing,” or that transgender adults are seeking to “turn kids trans.”
That said, I think we should consider the argument on its face. And as Rogan and his guest said, they are not talking about the right of adults to choose to transition to a different gender, but about the mental and physical health of teenage girls.
If you do a web search for Shrier + Joe Rogan podcast, you'll find some articles claiming vociferously that both of them are anti-trans. I'll be the first to call someone out if I think they are operating from a place of negative intent. However, when I read this critique in particular, I truly wondered if the writer had listened to the same interview.
It seems like some people are afraid of the discussion.
I think it's important to consider why: in the past, specious, counter-factual, and downright cruel arguments were used to disenfranchise various groups, most notably gays and lesbians. All kinds of ridiculous claims were made that gradually fell apart over time. (Being gay or lesbian is caused by a poor relationship with a parent; gay people seek to “convert” others to their “lifestyle”; gay men are pedophiles.) A substantial number of people believed this for a long time, because it aligned with their prejudices. Some people still believe this, but anyone with a brain and an Internet connection can quickly learn they are BS.
So I believe that some people on the left, having fought very hard for the full enfranchisement of many historically marginalized groups, are understandably very sensitive to any claim that could be leveraged to limit rights. And certainly, the idea that “teenage girls are being lured into a trans craze” is perfect red meat for people on the right already troubled by increasing acceptance of LGBTQ+ people.
However, we still should not be afraid of the discussion. And I believe we should always consider the intent of the people having it.
Of the perils of being “On-Brand” + a great book, both by Scott Carney
While one of my skills is branding, and I strongly believe in it for for-profit and nonprofit ventures alike, the relatively recent idea of personal branding makes me a bit nauseous. Scott Carney has a nice take on this.
COVID has done a lot of damage to the world, but one thing it has revealed is how shallow our online lives had been. Just 8 weeks ago my newsfeed overflowed with vacation selfies, bro-science, super positive people, bio hacks, yoga poses and a non-stop churn of impenetrable positivity. Everyone was building their personal brand and monetizing the hell out of it. Or, at least trying to monetize it. But then, a stint in quarantine, and 80,000 deaths later, the backlogs of awesome photos has run out. Online advertising declined and at least a few professional influencers are actual people again. And it’s a little refreshing.
He also has a great new book called "The Wedge”. It explores various methods of challenging ourselves through activities that are at times painful or uncomfortable.
One of these, the Wim Hof Method, I have experimented with myself. It's a combination of breath work and cold exposure. The latter, as you are training initially, is done via cold showers, later progressing to winter walks in nothing but shoes and running shorts, or ice baths. I have found it to be the clearest expression of mind-over-body I have experienced in recent years. Walking into a cold shower, our normal, default reflex is to start shivering. I was happy to learn that this can be overridden, partly through the breathing techniques, but also through positive self-talk and intentional relaxation.
My method is to stand in the cold water and talk out loud to myself, “it's not really that cold, or maybe it is, but it doesn't bother me, I'm not going to die, it's really not a big deal.” I never got to the point where I actively enjoyed it, but 5-, 8-, 10-minute showers became possible.
What holds up?
While I try to limit my screen time, I'm only mortal, and will veg out from time to time with Netflix or other sources. There are sometimes, however, when I really can't find anything terribly engaging to watch.
I often feel like, the older I get, the higher my standards become for media, art, and literature consumption. I no longer have much patience for anything that's not really great. Sometimes I will sit through something that isn't terribly well realized, just because the concept is so unusual.
There is more content in every medium than ever before. As musician Steven Wilson says, “there is too much of everything". That makes it harder to be original, and also harder to be exceptional, because there is so much competition.
I have started many series on Netflix, and I only make it 15 or 20 minutes into the pilot, if it's a comedy, and I haven't laughed once, I turn it off.
Then there is material from 10, 20, or 30 years ago. How much of it holds up? I assume the really great classic movies, Oscar winners, still do. But a lot of comedies, and especially TV shows, haven't aged well. It's fun to watch a clip from Knight Rider and have a few laughs, but I can't imagine sitting through an entire episode and being entertained.
I think really great work, like Battlestar Galactica, can be re-watched every decade or so and still be thought-provoking and entertaining.
The Endless
Speaking of unusual premises, this independent film is about two brothers who left a cult after many years in it, and tried to make a normal life for themselves in the city. They receive a strange videotape in the mail, watch it, and are called to return to see what has become of the community they abandoned. It's science fiction, and once it gets into the second act and you see the eerie premise on which the film is based, gets really interesting. It's not predictable, nor is everything explained and wrapped up neatly with a bow like in many Hollywood films.
Find it on one of your favorite streaming services.
