**Canterbury Snow Outlook** *The 14-day picture — the days worth watching.* **Issued** Monday 24 August 2026, 07:58 NZST · **Outlook period** next 14 days ---

Thursday shapes up as a genuine snow day for the Mid and South Canterbury hills, with Wednesday already worth watching as the lead-in.

Tomorrow is clear of any signal. Tomorrow is clear of any signal. Wednesday is where things start to stir — forecast guidance is divided on how much to make of it, but the chance of snow on the South Canterbury hills sits around 28% and one run pushes that closer to 45%, so it is worth watching even if the minority outcome. The plains look largely unaffected on Wednesday.

Thursday is the main event. At 69%, snow on the Mid and South Canterbury hills is more likely than not — close to the expected outcome — and the guidance is in good agreement. The plains carry a chance too, running around 27–33%. The Canterbury Snow Forecast will have the detail on timing and extent as Thursday draws closer, and the Thursday signal has been firming across recent runs, which adds confidence. Banks Peninsula looks unlikely to be affected. The Canterbury Snow Forecast for paid subscribers will have the detail on timing and extent as Thursday draws closer, and the Thursday signal has been firming across recent runs, which adds confidence.

Beyond that, Sunday and Wednesday (2nd) both carry low-chance watch flags — around 12–14% on the hills each — so they are worth keeping half an eye on but remain the minority outcome at this range. The rest of the fortnight is quiet. The next Canterbury Snow Outlook goes out on Monday 31 August, or sooner if the picture changes. If a snow event moves within four days, paid subscribers also receive the detailed Canterbury Snow Forecast — the town-by-town, pass-by-pass picture.