Canterbury Snow Outlook

The 14-day picture — the days worth watching.

Issued Monday 03 August 2026, 07:58 NZST · Outlook period next 14 days

Tomorrow carries the clearest snow signal in the next two weeks — a low chance in most parts of the region, but a likely call for Banks Peninsula and the North Canterbury hills, one the guidance has flagged consistently enough to keep on the radar.

Tomorrow is the only significant day. Forecast guidance has been steady on a low chance of snow reaching the hills and plains region-wide — around 17%, with the upper end of the spread nudging toward 27% generally. That sits in the 'low but worth watching' register rather than anything more serious, but the signal is 75%+ likely for Banks Peninsula and that has been consistent also. The detail from here is in the Canterbury Snow Forecast, which was updated for paid subscribers this morning. The signal has been stable across recent runs, which at least means the picture isn't shifting around.

After tomorrow, the rest of the week and the following weekend are essentially flat. Wednesday through Saturday (15th) show nothing worth naming — a quiet stretch of a week or more.

The only other thing on the board is a pair of watch-flagged days at the far end of the window: Sunday (16th) and Monday (17th). Chances there are low — around 10–14% on the hills at best — and at 13–14 days out the guidance carries real uncertainty. It is too early to read much into it, but it is flagged and worth a glance as the period draws closer.

The next Canterbury Snow Outlook goes out on Monday 10 August, or sooner if the picture changes. If a snow event moves within four days, paid subscribers also receive the detailed Canterbury Snow Forecast — the town-by-town, pass-by-pass picture.