**Canterbury Snow Outlook** *The 14-day picture — the days worth watching.* **Issued** Monday 21 September 2026, 07:58 NZST ·

**Outlook period** next 14 days ---

Snow is likely to fall on the hill country around 300–500m tomorrow and again on Sunday, with Sunday offering the only meaningful chance of snow actually settling at hill-farm level.

Tomorrow brings the highest any-snow signal of the fortnight: around 75–76% chance that flakes reach the hill band at some point during the day. That sounds significant, but the settling chance sits at just 9–12% — a low chance, and good news for road crews and farmers. Snow is likely to fall on the hills, but lying snow at foothill-town and hill-country level looks unlikely. The plains may see some wintry precipitation mix in, but settling there is not on the cards. Detail on timing and intensity is the Canterbury Snow Forecast's territory at this range (emailed to paid subscribers this morning).

Wednesday carries a watch flag too, though the signal is weaker and guidance is divided — somewhere between 25–39% chance of some snow falling on the hills, with a low settling chance of up to 16%. Worth keeping an eye on, but still the minority outcome and uncertain in character. Thursday is clear. Friday and Saturday both carry watch flags but the numbers are very low — flakes on the hills are a slim possibility at best, settling snow negligible — these are noted for completeness rather than as events to plan around.

Sunday is the day that stands out for settling snow. Around half the guidance has snow falling on the hill band, and the settling chance sits at about 27% — worth acting on, a real chance, though still the minority outcome. Snow is likely to be seen on the Plains too, and a small but non-trivial chance of settling snow reaches the plains, at around 8%. The rest of the fortnight — Monday (28th) through Tuesday (6th) — is quiet, with nothing worth flagging. The next Canterbury Snow Outlook goes out on Monday 28 September, or sooner if the picture changes.

If a snow event moves within four days, paid subscribers also receive the detailed Canterbury Snow Forecast — the town-by-town, pass-by-pass picture. This will be sent to paid subscribers today and tomorrow, and likely from about Thursday to cover the weekend event.