Canterbury Snow Outlook

The 14-day picture — the days worth watching.

Issued Monday 27 July 2026, 07:58 NZST · Outlook period next 14 days

A snow watch sits on Friday and Saturday, with a second, lower signal appearing the following Wednesday and Thursday.

The first half of the week is clear — tomorrow and Wednesday show nothing, and Thursday is as close to zero as makes no difference. The picture changes heading into the weekend. Friday carries around a 46–69% chance of snow on the hills and roughly 29–42% on the plains — a real chance, worth acting on for the hills, though still the minority outcome for the plains at this range. Saturday holds a similar signal at around 41% on the hills and 30% on the plains. The two days together form a coherent window, and the guidance has been stable across recent runs, which adds a little confidence that something is there — though this far ahead not enough to call it likely. Sunday drops back to near-nothing.

Further out, a second window appears around Wednesday (5th) and Thursday (6th) next week. The hills chance sits at 16–32% on Wednesday (5th) and 14–26% on Thursday (6th), with the plains a little lower. These are low chances — worth keeping half an eye on at nine to ten days' range, but well short of anything to plan around yet. The rest of the fortnight is quiet.

In summary: Friday and Saturday are the days to watch this week, with the stronger signal on Friday. The second window in the first week of August is a low-chance flag only — it will need several more runs to sharpen before it means much.

The next Canterbury Snow Outlook goes out on Monday 3 August, or sooner if the picture changes. If a snow event moves within four days, paid subscribers also receive the detailed Canterbury Snow Forecast — the town-by-town, pass-by-pass picture. Thats likely to be sent out to paid subscribers tomorrow morning.