Canterbury Snow Outlook

The 14-day picture — the days worth watching.

Issued Monday 10 August 2026, 07:58 NZST · Outlook period next 14 days

Tomorrow through Friday looks settled and snow-free, but a meaningful cold spell is shaping up for the weekend and into the following week.

The signal is clear and worth flagging: Saturday through Sunday stand out as the most likely window for snow across the hills and plains, with Sunday currently the stronger of the two days. Chances on the hills sit around 35–41% across that period — a real chance, not a certainty, but firmly in the range where it pays to keep an eye on developments. The guidance has been firming on Sunday over recent runs, which adds a little confidence, though at five to six days out there is still meaningful room for the timing and intensity to shift.

The cold spell looks to linger into the early part of the following week. Monday (17th) carries a low chance of around 16–18% on the hills, and Tuesday (18th) and Wednesday (19th) trail off further — both flagged as worth watching but at low probability, with the upper end of guidance a touch keener than the central figure. Thursday (20th) and beyond are quiet.

Tomorrow, Wednesday, and Thursday are flat — nothing to see there. The story this fortnight is the Saturday–Sunday window, and the Canterbury Snow Forecast will take over the detail as it comes into range.

The next Canterbury Snow Outlook goes out on Monday 17 August, or sooner if the picture changes. If a snow event moves within three days, paid subscribers also receive the detailed Canterbury Snow Forecast — the town-by-town, pass-by-pass picture.