The Vigilant // SITREP Index 59 Elevated · Escalating
SITREP Index 59 (Elevated), +4 vs yesterday
DAILY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF ·
SITREP INDEX
59 · ELEVATED
Escalating ▲ +4 vs yesterday
Ukraine anchors the board at 85, on 3,041 tracked conflict events and 38 articles across 15 sources. Leading today's signal: Operation Economic Outcast: Total Isolation of the Iranian Regime (White House). The index rose to 59 as Iran saw the sharpest shift, coverage up 22 day over day. Markets held steady, with volatility up 0.16%.
● Low 0–39
● Guarded 40–54
● Elevated 55–69
● Critical 70+
The SITREP Index (0–100) blends a structural conflict base (UN/HDX HAPI) with a live news-velocity layer across 56 sources. Higher = greater global instability; a directional signal, not a forecast.
⚠ Alerts
CRITICAL European leaders mark Ukraine’s 35th Independence Day as Russian invasion pushes on — AP
CRITICAL This Is How AI Starts a Nuclear War — FreePress
HIGH Trump’s oil and gas stocks gained up to $15.5 million amid Iran war, congressional Democrats say — CNBC
HIGH US treasury secretary announces ‘onslaught’ of sanctions to isolate Iran from world economy – live — Guardian
HIGH Trump's approval holds at record low as US support for Iran war falls, Reuters Ipsos poll finds — Reuters
Today's Movers
▲ Iran +22 coverage · index 81.1 (+8)
▲ Ukraine +8 coverage · index 85 (+8.5)
▲ Israel +6 coverage · index 41.7 (+7.5)
▲ France +6 coverage · index 39.2 (+4.5)
▲ Yemen +4 coverage · index 34.8 (+8)
The Board
Ukraine 85 ▲ +8.5 · conflict 87 · news 83
Iran 81.1 ▲ +8 · conflict 62 · news 100
United States 77.3 ▲ +6.5 · conflict 62 · news 93
Russia 67.2 ▲ +1.5 · conflict 79 · news 55
India 58.3 ▼ -1.5 · conflict 78 · news 39
China 51.8 ▼ -1.5 · conflict 37 · news 67
United Kingdom 49.7 ▲ +7.5 · conflict 40 · news 59
Israel 41.7 ▲ +7.5 · conflict 40 · news 43
Country index, day change, and the two component scores (0–100): conflict base + news-velocity.
Pentagon Pizza Index
DEFCON 2 FAST PACE - ARMED FORCES READY · activity 51% · 3 spikes · 6 locations
Pizzato Pizza SPIKE 100%
District Pizza Palace SPIKE 91%
Papa Johns Pizza SPIKE 64%
Extreme Pizza ELEVATED 51%
We, The Pizza QUIET 0%
Domino's Pizza (Pentagon Closest) QUIET —%
Geopolitical Tensions
USA ↔ Russia 0.5 ↑ +80.4%
Russia ↔ Ukraine 1.8 ↑ +5.8%
USA ↔ China -0.3 → 0%
China ↔ Taiwan 1.2 ↑ +33.8%
USA ↔ Iran 1.8 → +0.3%
USA ↔ Venezuela -0.2 → 0%
Source: PizzINT (pizzint.watch) — Google Maps activity at Pentagon-area pizza spots as a readiness proxy. Tensions: GDELT GPR, 7-day avg vs prior week.
Market Radar
OVERALL BUY 4/7 bullish
Liquidity SQUEEZE JPY 30d ROC -2.0%
Flow PASSIVE GAP BTC +13.5% / QQQ -3.2% 5d
Regime RISK-ON QQQ +3.5% vs XLP +2.4% 20d
BTC Trend BULLISH BTC $78,609 · Mayer 1.14
Hash Rate DECLINING -13.0% 30d
Mining Cost PROFITABLE
Fear & Greed Greed 73/100
EQUITIES S&P 500 763.47 ▼0.29% · Nasdaq 100 706.32 ▼1% · Dow Jones 533.65 ▲0.27%
COMMODITIES Gold 426.69 ▲0.79% · Crude Oil 132.21 ▼1.8%
VOLATILITY Volatility (VIX) 18.24 ▲0.16%
CRYPTO Bitcoin 78752 ▲1.89% · Ethereum 2472 ▲1.21%
RATES US 10Y Treasury 4.69% +0.04%
Levels as of compile time; figures are end-of-prior-session/intraday snapshots.
Sector Heatmap
Tech ▼1.78% · Finance ▲1.29% · Energy ▼0.83% · Health ▲0.05%
Consumer ▲0.24% · Industrial ▼0.69% · Staples ▲1.7% · Utilities ▲1.05%
Materials ▲0.07% · Real Est ▲0.55% · Comms ▲0.83% · Semis ▼2.43%
S&P sector ETFs, day change as of compile time.
SIGINT Brief
Solar & Propagation
SFI 128 · SN 78 · A 2 · K 0 · X-Ray C7.4 · Wind 361 km/s
80m–40m day Fair night Good
30m–20m day Good night Good
17m–15m day Good night Fair
12m–10m day Fair night Poor
Solar data: NOAA SWPC. Band conditions computed from SFI + Kp. Assessment generated at compile time.
Down-Detector
⚠ ONGOING Cloudflare — Minor Service Outage minor
⚠ ONGOING Twilio — SMS Delivery Failures from Twilio to Dukagjjni Kosovo minor · since Aug 21 · ongoing 3d · last update Aug 21
Disaster Watch
M6 earthquake — 215 km NNE of Lospalos, Timor Leste
M5.5 earthquake — 207 km SSE of Amahai, Indonesia
M5.3 earthquake — 120 km W of Lata, Solomon Islands
M5.2 earthquake — 61 km NE of Ruteng, Indonesia
M5 earthquake — southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge
M5 earthquake — 228 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska
ORANGE TC — Orange notification for tropical cyclone SAUDEL-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 4.737 million .
ORANGE FL — Orange flood alert in China
ORANGE DR — Drought is on going in Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda
ORANGE DR — Drought is on going in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador
ORANGE DR — Drought is on going in Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia
ORANGE DR — Drought is on going in Albania, Austria, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Belgium, Bulgaria, Belarus, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Sp
ORANGE DR — Drought is on going in Madagascar
Climate Anomalies
EXTREME Southern Africa — warm, +9.4°F, -0.6mm vs baseline
MODERATE Australia — warm, +5.8°F, +2.2mm vs baseline
The Brief
GEOPOLITICS Typhoon signal in Hong Kong unlikely in next 2 days but expect unsettled weather
GOVERNMENT Security Council LIVE: Civilian suffering grows in Russia-Ukraine war
DEFENSE & CONFLICT UK, France ‘re-announce’ anti-missile technology for Ukraine: ‘None will be online for years’
CYBER & SECURITY ShinyHunters and ReliaQuest trade blows over claimed breach
AI & MACHINE LEARNING Marker words suggest sharp rise in AI-assisted biomedical writing after ChatGPT
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