Was Steve Jobs Right About Segway and the Future of Cities?
Cities large and small are coming to the sore realization that the societal & economic costs of suburban sprawl are simply too damn high.
I promised you this newsletter would occasionally veer from online technology and into the micromobility space. So let's get started!
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The Rise and Fall and Rise Again of Segway
Let's be clear: the Segway of today might retain that brand name, but it's hardly the same company. Segway-Ninebot has been a Chinese company since 2015, and its hit products bear little resemblance to the original Segway. But I'll argue, that's actually a very good thing.
The original Segway PT self-balancing scooter, codenamed "Ginger" and called simply "IT" online before anyone knew what it was, was a very hyped product at the dawn of the millennium prior to its release. An invention of Dean Kamen, the hype train was fueled by reports that Steve Jobs himself had declared that in the future, “cities would be designed around the device” and the invention would prove to be “as significant as the personal computer.”
Well, here we are two decades later, and clearly none of that came to pass.
Or did it? 🤔
Obviously, we don't see everyone riding around on Ginger-derivatives. We don't all look like Paul Blart: Mall Cop. 😂 There are a number of reasons for this, and Dan Kois wrote a pretty good post-mortem for Slate about what really went down. But even more fascinating is the behind-the-scenes conversation between Steve Jobs and Segway bigwigs prior to the public unveiling of Ginger, and how Jobs really hated aspects of that original product.
"What does everyone think about the design?" asked Doerr, switching subjects.
"What do you think?" said Jobs to Tim. It was a challenge, not a question.
"I think it's coming along," said Tim, "though we expect—" "I think it sucks!" said Jobs.
His vehemence made Tim pause. "Why?" he asked, a bit stiffly.
"It just does."
"In what sense?" said Tim, getting his feet back under him. "Give me a clue."
"Its shape is not innovative, it's not elegant, it doesn't feel anthropomorphic," said Jobs, ticking off three of his design mantras.
"You have this incredibly innovative machine but it looks very traditional." The last word delivered like a stab. Doug Field and Scott Waters would have felt the wound; they admired Apple's design sense.
So if you'll permit me to sum up Jobs' feelings on the product, it was that the idea of the Segway PT was truly groundbreaking and could have a major impact on the design of cities in the future—yet this particular execution of the product left much to be desired and might be DOA if Segway didn't nail the formula.
I believe Steve Jobs was right on both counts.
Although…you could argue he didn't get the "traditional" aspect of his complaint right. The irony of the design of today's hit e-scooters is that they look just like souped-up kick scooters of old with motors. In other words, the problem with the original Segway was that it wasn't "traditional" enough!
It took two decades and a lot of incremental adjustments—as well as major improvements to battery technology, compute miniaturization, and smartphone integration—to hit on the right formula for e-scooters. And while Segway is by no means the only company selling these today, it still consistently shows up on best-selling lists.
Micromobility is the Winner in the End
When we evaluate this space of "revolutionary" personal transportation devices, it's clear that the offspring of Ginger—e-scooters as a category—is by no means the primary driver of change as we gaze upon our evolving urban fabric.
It's micromobility taken as a whole, a fast-growing industry which encompasses a wide variety of designs and feature sets. And one might argue, the device which is really blowing up as a viable alternative to automobiles for people with genuine, daily needs is the cargo bike.
Exponential growth of cargo bike sales (both electric and acoustic) in Europe, America, and around the world is making a massive impact on cities that are seeking to demonstrate meaningful progress in the fight against climate change. Not only are cargo bikes making it possible for individuals and families to ditch the car (or at least avoid buying another one), they're revolutionizing last-mile logistics as well:
Big players in the delivery ecosystems such as DHL and FedEx are already investing in the development of their own cargo bikes fleet, and they are willing to work with city governments to foster the deployment of such logistics.
Besides the rise of ownership of new micromobility vehicles by people and companies alike, we've seen the huge success of e-bike and e-scooter sharing programs in cities everywhere. Again, it's taken a while to figure out the right formula, and people have rightly been pointing out the downsides of scooters-run-amuck such as spotting piles of them dumped in a river for inexplicable reasons.
But as everyone grows accustomed to these programs and the best ways for public-partnerships to thrive, we are seeing how popular they are with both tourists and locals. I can't even step outside my door in Portland, Oregon, without witnessing folks riding shared micromobility vehicles everywhere.
Beyond sharing, there is also an increasing number of municipalities and regional governments that are encouraging eco-friendly consumer behavior by providing e-bike subsidies. Buy a new e-bike, get a huge rebate! (If it were up to me, I'd be advocating for governments to literally give away e-bikes!) There's virtually no downside to any of these programs, because every single trip someone takes on a bike (electric or acoustic) vs. an automobile they are basically saving the planet. Even EVs (electric cars) are an order of magnitude worse for the environment as compared to micromobility vehicles.
Changing the World One Less Car at a Time
Remember, every time you hear someone online whining about another city street getting new or widened "bike lanes", you're hearing the warbling of hilariously outdated thinking which is that "cycling" is for a small group of recreational enthusiasts. After all, streets are for the people with real needs (aka car drivers), not the "spandex" crowd. 🙄
This is laughably outmoded, as we're seeing micromobility and transit-oriented development not just completely transform European cities but have a huge and visible effect right here in "car-dependent" United States. While our progress can feel frustratingly slow at times compared to other parts of the world, we are nevertheless seeing the early stages of a generational shift in urban planning and development. Just ask CityNerd.
Cities large and small, all across America, are coming to the sore realization that the societal & economic costs of suburban sprawl are simply too damn high. In a funny twist of narrative, it turns out those car-centric voices claiming urban renewal, infill, and massively-improved public transit was too much expense for middling results were dead wrong. In fact, if you call yourself a "fiscal conservative", you might just want to be a YIMBY (Yes-In-My-Back-Yard) because the desperate need to provide affordable housing (and balance city budgets in the process) isn't just a "liberal" issue, it's a universal issue:
As the lack of available and affordable housing has become one of America’s defining economic issues, it is increasingly a political problem. Politicians from both parties have found themselves inundated by constituents who have been priced out of ownership, forced into long commutes, and embittered by rising rents and multiplying homeless encampments.
Turns out, increasing density and building housing in and around city centers is popular across the political spectrum. And when new tram or BRT (Bus Rapid Transit) capacity is introduced, people get excited. Too excited, as it turns out: Seattle's brand-new light rail Lynnwood link is so popular, there's not enough parking for commuters to get on the train in the first place!
So Back to Steve Jobs…
You must remember what the world of 2001 looked like. Everybody was driving around in gas-guzzling automobiles spewing awful emissions out of their tailpipes. Tesla hadn't even been founded yet—and if you can believe it, the production of the original roadster was yet years away. The idea of the "e-bike" as a legit product category was virtually non-existent. (Obviously, no e-scooters either.)
Furthermore, the United States was just barely getting its act together on modernizing public transit. Looking at Portland specifically for example, most of today's MAX train lines hadn't opened yet. The Portland Streetcar had just launched—but only the NS line. And the Portland "biking boom" was only beginning to take off.
Not only that, America's infatuation with the single-family home and suburban lifestyles hadn't yet collided with the reality of the health of our planet—and the affordability of housing. Only in the past few years have we seen epic swings towards eliminating zoning laws which had protected the sacred status of single-family home neighborhoods. Listen carefully: nobody is saying you can't live in a single-family dwelling, nor is anyone forcing you to live in a "15-minute city". But it's becoming abundantly clear that 1950s-style suburban sprawl is as much a relic of bygone days as JELL-O molds and saddle shoes.
In conclusion… While Steve Jobs might have gotten some particulars wrong in his critique of the Segway PT twenty years ago, his instincts around consumer demand and the direction city planning would take in the decades to come was spot on. I'm here to argue Jobs was broadly right: that soon “cities would be designed around [micromobility]” and micromobility would prove to be “as significant as the personal computer.”
And to underscore this point, you can pry both my Segway and my iPhone out of my cold, dead hands.
Things which make you think:
Nearly 200 orgs nationwide tell lawmakers they want ‘communities over highways’
A fledgling nonprofit with an outlandish name that launched in Portland six years ago, now sees itself alongside 17 other organizations statewide who have come to the same conclusion: “Highway expansions are pulling our country into an environmental, budgetary, and public health crisis and it’s time to end this destructive, unsustainable practice and set a responsible course toward a cleaner and more equitable future.”
The suburban version of the American Dream might start looking more like a nightmare if people realized the price tag.