Solid-State Battery Technology? OK Fine, That’s Worthy of Hype!
It feels odd to write an issue of Cycles Hyped No More where I'm about to hype some cycles…but here we go! 😂
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I remember a number of years ago there was a sense that while computer performance (CPUs, GPUs, SSDs, etc.) was truly making leaps and bounds across multiple dimensions (performance-per-watt becoming a significant benchmark), the same couldn't be said for battery technology. You'd hope to see batteries themselves making steady gains just like silicon, but alas we seemed to be constrained by the laws of physics—meaning that from year to year, there wasn't much of an improvement.
That era seems to be behind us. Not only has battery technology as available in the marketplace today been improving considerably in recent years, but the cost of batteries have dropped dramatically (this report out of MIT from May 2024 claims a 90% drop since 2010!) meaning in some cases you can simply add more battery to a product to get far better range/longevity without increasing the sticker price.
Yet it's undeniable that the workhorse material of modern batteries, lithium-ion, is pretty played out by this point. Researches have been looking for alternatives, whether the goal is to find more environmentally-responsible solutions, easier to source solutions (aka via more readily available materials), or to offer batteries with even greater performance. And one of those avenues of exploration is a sort of "holy grail" for batteries: Solid-state.
The Benefits of Solid-State Batteries
There have been many avenues of research into the possibility of using solid materials rather than liquid for storing and utilizing energy, and Mercedes-Benz' now hopes that their most promising avenue of exploration in the form of semi-solid-state batteries will allow them to put vehicles powered by these batteries in showrooms by the end of the decade.
According to this report by IEEE Spectrum:
The auto industry is pursuing the batteries, which replace liquid electrolytes with a solid ceramic or glass material, because of their potential to carry decisively more energy, charge faster and improve vehicle safety by reducing flammability over other types of lithium-ion batteries.
Now, Mercedes-Benz and solid-state battery manufacturer Factorial Energy have reached a hopeful halfway point, strapping semi-solid-state cells to the German automaker’s flagship electric sedan.
Mercedes announced it has begun road-testing the prototype cells in its EQS full-size sedan. Woburn, Massachusetts-based Factorial Energy supplies the pouch-format cells, and co-developed the pack with Mercedes-AMG High Performance Powertrains, the automaker’s Formula 1 racing subsidiary in Brixworth, U.K.
Mercedes says the battery delivers a real-world driving range beyond 1,000 kilometers (620 miles), about 25 percent farther than a conventional lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide battery of the same size and mass.
A leap of 25% in a single generational shift is truly remarkable. It would mean that you could either buy the same car and get a significantly higher amount of range, or you could buy a car with less range (meaning the same as you'd get today) and save on the lower battery cost.
Obviously with my personal focus on micromobility, I salivate at the possibility that e-bikes & e-scooters could likewise see range gains of 25% a few years from now. There's already been a remarkable improvement over the past several generations of these human-scale vehicles…I'm looking to purchase a new e-scooter later this year almost exclusively because I want more range and wattage (otherwise I'd be quite content with what I already own!). It feels reminiscent of the PC market of a couple decades ago: every year or two the capability of the models available and the breadth of options for consumers seems to increase exponentially.
Toss solid-state batteries into the mix, and I consider the dream scenario that a decently-affordable commuter scooter going 15mph could traverse 50 miles on a single charge. That seems insane to me, truly a game-changer. It's worth stating that even today we have models coming into the market which can go 44 miles on Eco mode—but that's at a sluggish 9mph which honestly is not worth crowing about in my judgement.
Still, "the Era of Micromobility" if you will has progressed from something enthusiasts and early adopters get nerdy about to a daily staple for many folks' routine—and when you start looking at projected CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) for various sectors of the micromobility space of 10% to 15% over the next several years—and then factor in the potential for a major advancement in battery technology—it is a heady proposition indeed.
The “Hyped No More” Angle
Coming back down to earth however, it's certainly possible that solid-state or even semi-solid-state batteries at commercial scale won't pan out any time soon. There could be roadblocks during development, or there could be other issues regarding reliability or manufacturing quality not yet foreseen.
I'm also concerned that the types of batteries needed to power large EV automobiles won't automatically trickle down to e-bikes and e-scooters any time soon, which is what I'm truly excited for. I would be disappointed if a mid-level e-scooter in 2030 is still stuck in the sub-50-miles range without substantially bulking up or some other design compromise.
So time will tell…which is a dumb way to end this newsletter but hey, that's how the cookie crumbles when speculating about future tech! As I stated up top, battery performance just doesn't scale in a somewhat linear fashion the same way that processors do. We keep seeing long periods of stagnation, punctuated by major leaps in either capability or affordability. That can be frustrating as an observer of electric vehicle markets—yet in terms of the designs and featuresets of the options now available to consumers, it's never a dull moment.
In Other News…
Lately over on The Internet Review, I've published:
- Turns Out the “Killer App” of AI—Summarizing Things—Is, Um, Really Bad at Summarizing Things
- My Shifting Computing Habits in 2025 (Thanks…Tim Cook?)
- Framework Brings Real Excitement Back to Personal Computers
- Character.AI: Harmless Fun for Teens…Or Lurking Dangerous Influence?
- My 2005 Rah-Rah of Web 2.0 Aged Poorly
And I've been busy on my personal blog as well with a few tech-adjacent pronouncements:
- I Have Some Questions for Marc Benioff
- Hey Slop Leaders
- Link: Agents: Uh, Who Actually Has the Agency?
- I will never forgive the tech industry for what it has done to the world... (rant warning!)
Share Early, Share Often!
I hope you enjoyed this issue of Cycles Hyped No More. Please share with your friends, family, enemies, and everyone in between! 😅
Cheers,
Jared White
🤔🌩️ Things that make you think:
Bike lanes with physical delineators (cones or bollards) were more effective than paint-only lanes at calming traffic, echoing a popular mantra for bike activists: “Paint is not protection.”
“In order to achieve Vision Zero initiatives, planners and policy makers should focus efforts on delineated bike lanes, not merely painted lanes,” researchers concluded. “The costs associated with the materials are offset by the traffic calming benefits of the delineated bike lane.