Hype Cycles, Come Again No More
Sing it with me!
Let us pause in life's pleasures and count its many tears
While we all sup sorrow with the poor
There's a song that will linger forever in our ears
Oh, hype cycles, come again no more
Tis the song, the sigh of the weary
Hype cycles, hype cycles, come again no more
Many days you have lingered around my cabin door
Oh, hype cycles, come again no more
All apologies to the late great Stephen Foster, but I can think of no more appropriate way to introduce this newsletter.
As a companion to my recently resurrected tech blog, The Internet Review, I felt that in order to launch this newsletter, I had to come up to a very particular hook—something that would keep me excited and engaged over the long-term (let alone you dear reader!).
It came to me in a flash when I discovered (in true TIL fashion) that the concept of the hype cycle — or rather, Hype Cycle® — is actually a designed product of the Gartner, Inc. consulting firm. Seriously, look it up! Like, no joke: this company quite literally invented a particular way of describing technological development and happened to be so successful at it that now people think it's some inherent property of the world. Like gravity or nuclear force or the propensity of Elon Musk to utter the most juvenile dreck you've ever heard spew from the mouth of a multibillionaire.
Did you ever stop and think “wait a minute, hold the phone…what if Hype Cycle® is itself a hype cycle? one which perhaps never got much farther past the Trough of Disillusionment?“
Personally I feel like I've been on a rollercoaster ride these past few years where I keep being told something is The Future of Technology™ when in fact it turns out to be a steaming pile. Do I really need to renumerate through all the many examples?
The current hysteria around "chatbots" is in fact nothing new. I was told ages ago that chatbots would completely transform software UX. It would refashion how people use the Internet and engage with their favorite services.
Boy does Big Tech want this chatbot hype cycle to…y'know…cycle.
In my option the eventual reality will be far more mundane. There will be more sophisticated "assistant" technology built into operating systems and certain key tasks for people who specifically care to reach for such features, and there will be plenty of entertaining "personalities" people can goof around with for one reason or another. And…that's about it. There are already looming signs this is exactly what's happening. The future will look far less like ChatGPT and much more like just a better Siri. And a ton of software simply doesn't need any chatbot integration at all.
Here's my highly sophisticated, impeccably researched graph showing the hype cycle of chatbots:
We're not quite at the peak yet, but we're getting real close now.
Come Again No More
I think we really just need a total reset on how we approach conversations around the development of Internet and personal lifestyle technology. “Hype cycles” aren't cutting the mustard anymore. People simply don't trust Big Tech anymore. They've completely and utterly squandered that oh-so-precious resource called “benefit of the doubt”.
I don't give any Big Tech company that benefit anymore. None…not even Apple. (Sorry Tim…the most positive thing I can say about you these days is, erm, you're less batshit crazy than the other guys.)
The most actually exciting technologies I've used in recent times, ones which have had a dramatic impact on my life for the better are things like:
- The Fediverse.
- E-bikes & e-scooters.
- Amazing new standards-based browser features and declaratively-configured server tooling (like Render 😍).
- High-quality/lightweight/affordable digital cameras (both smartphone and mirrorless…hopefully drone soon!).
I suppose all of these products were "hyped" at one point or another, but the key thing about them is we've basically just seen gradual, evolutionary improvements to them for years, even decades by now…and they're highly sought after by people of all stripes because they're genuinely useful, fun, and human-centric.
Some of these sorts of gradually-improving technologies still have to compete with much more "hyped" alternatives which in many ways are worse for our society. Imagine a world where instead of everyone thinking they needed to replace their gas-guzzling monster truck-sized trucks with, uh, gargantuan electric trucks…we just had built cities where transit by bicycle was perfectly acceptable and even the norm? (Yes, I know my European audience is probably wondering why I'm even making this point, but alas, I live in the good ol' U.S. of A. where to drive absurdly large automobiles everywhere is considered patriotic or something…)
The Age of…Not Your Call!
The point I strongly want to impress on Big Tech and their apologists in the media is that it's not their call what “age” we happen to find ourselves in. I think it's usually something we realize has already happened after the fact, not something being shoved down our throats.
I remember lots of "ages" over the last couple of decades. Remember how 3D printers were going to change the world? Don't get me wrong, 3D printing is cool…but it's hardly set the broader culture ablaze. Metaverse? Lol, that was a good one.
The truth of the matter is the Big Tech ecosystem has been trying to relive its glory days of the 90s computer revolution (and it's 2000s second phase in the form of the smartphone)…and unfortunately for them that sort of genuine revolution comes along very rarely. I would say if we're in any “age” at all right now, it's the age of Trying to Figure Out How to Keep the Internet from Devolving into Irreparable Chaos.
As much as nerds like me have loved playing with our digital toys for the past 20, 30, 40 years, we have to come to grips with the fact that computer & online technology has brought with it very real harms. The Internet is rife with a shocking lapse in ethical behavior right now, and the more pessimistic among us wonder if it's already too far gone. Maybe this experiment in hypertext called the World-Wide Web is beyond redemption, falling ever further into a digital Gray Goo between the onslaught of AI slop, disinformation campaigns, user-hostile apps & services, and media's race to the bottom.
Me, I'm still an optimist. I continue to believe the Web is one of mankind's greatest inventions, and the promise of computer & online technology to make our world so much better has yet to be fully realized.
We just need to get past the outrageously-hyped hype cycles and the astonishing ability of Silicon Valley to shape our narratives on our behalf.
We desperately need a new grassroots Internet, a digital social fabric built from the ground up to focus on the marginalized as well as the truly skilled, not the “influencers” and the grifters. We need to focus on technologies rooted in place, aka the real world. I deeply care about the intersection of new innovations and urbanism in order to build better cities—more humane, safer, cleaner, and more equitable. We need to wrest control back so that every individual human has the capacity to seek ethical means of augmentation—not replacement—by technological progress.
This rebuild of the ’Net won't be easy, and it will be fought tooth-and-nail by the powers that be. And even those in Big Tech who seem to ally with us—Threads as but one example (you are wise to appreciate Meta's embrace of the Fediverse even while remaining deeply skeptical of its ultimate intentions)—must be constantly supervised with a vigilant eye.
That's what this newsletter is all about. I hope you'll join me as we push back on the absurd hype cycles which have dominated technology discussions and instead focus on tech both innovative and “boring” which is proving itself to impact people in culturally, morally, and holistically beneficial ways.
Welcome to Cycles Hyped No More.
A publication of The Internet Review & Intuitive Future.
P.S. Some of these sorts of topics I was previously covering on my Creator Class newsletter. I'm refocusing that one specifically on “how-tos” for Fediverse-minded creators and I encourage you to sign up for it as well if you haven't already…but I'm relocating my broader coverage of digital technology as well as micromobility here. Enjoy!