Two weeks ago we sent you our fifth newsletter, and new content has been hitting the site ever since. Tuesday is Election Day, so this issue is all about the runoffs. We’ll be back later this week with everything else.

$32 million in ads

Outside groups have spent about $32 million on the runoffs for mayor, city attorney and two council seats since the June primary, $24.5 million of it on the race for mayor. We pulled the text off every ad they’ve filed with the city Ethics Commission and added up how much each side spent on ads using each word. The Central City Association, a downtown business group, has backed one side in all four races, and its candidates are in blue in every chart.

Mayor

Several of the ads on Karen Bass’s side replay something Nithya Raman said at a candidate forum in January 2024, and five of the ten words on Bass’s side of the chart are in that one sentence. Read the piece →

City attorney

Eighty percent of the money backing Marissa Roy paid for ads that say “MAGA,” and one of them asks “who’s backing John McKinney for city attorney?” Most of the ads on McKinney’s side tell his story, starting with what happened when he was five.

3rd District

In the southwest San Fernando Valley, 93% of the money backing Barri Worth Girvan paid for ads that say “homelessness.” Tim Gaspar’s backers call him a small business owner who has “never held public office,” and one of their ads blames “career politicians” for the price of gas and groceries.

9th District

Nearly all of the money backing Estuardo Mazariegos in South LA comes from United Teachers Los Angeles and the organizing group ACCE, and “teachers” is in 96% of it. Most of it also paid for ads about a fine the city handed his opponent, Jose Ugarte. Read the piece →

Every candidate’s top eight words, in all four races, are in one sortable table.

Early ballot returns

City voters had returned 263,553 ballots through October 28, about 30% as many as voted in the June primary. The two West Valley districts where Spencer Pratt ran best had already passed a third of their June totals, and Raman’s three best districts were the three furthest behind. Read the piece →

Tied at 40

In September, the Berkeley IGS poll for the Los Angeles Times had Raman ahead of Bass 39% to 28%, and its October poll found them tied at 40%. We’ve put every public poll of the runoff we could check on one page, along with who paid for each, and one taken the week before the tie still had Raman up by eight. See who ran it →

From the archive

• Bass’s campaign says Nithya Raman missed 3,000 council votes. The real number is 2,966, and an estimated 519 trace to her AQMD board seat
• Karen Bass’s best districts had the city’s worst primary turnout, and it is not obvious whether that hurts her or Raman
• About 1% of the money in the CD9 runoff comes from CD9
• The only other Los Angeles mayoral election that looks like 2026 was in 1969

Everything we’ve written about the runoffs is at basin.la/elections.

Keep in touch

If you need the data behind any of these, write to [email protected].

See you later this week.

The Basin
basin.la · [email protected]