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ZEITGEIST

May 3, 2026

Jerome Powell didn't want to stay. For months, the outgoing Fed chair had been counting down to retirement, expecting to hand the gavel to Kevin Warsh and walk out the door — as every chair since Marriner Eccles in 1948 had done. But the Justice Department's criminal investigation into his oversight of building renovations, launched in January, changed the calculus. Rather than hasten his exit, the probe reinforced his sense of obligation to the institution. "The things that have happened, really in the last three months, have left me no choice," Powell said at his final press conference as chair. Former Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker wrote in an essay Saturday: "He had every right to retire. He earned it. He chose not to." Powell hasn't said how long he'll remain on the board — his term as a governor runs until early 2028 — and some who know him believe he may stay a while, convinced the administration can't be trusted to relent. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the decision "a violation of all Federal Reserve norms." Trump said Thursday he didn't care.

In Omaha, a different kind of succession unfolded under friendlier lights. Greg Abel took the stage Saturday for his first shareholders' meeting as Berkshire Hathaway CEO, walking investors through the conglomerate's businesses in granular detail — extended meditations on Geico's technology transformation and the stories behind each of Berkshire's three industrial-metals units. The density was a departure from Warren Buffett's trademark folksiness; some shareholders were spotted leaving before Abel's opening discussion ended. But the numbers were strong: operating earnings rose 18% to $11.35 billion, cash swelled to a record $381.1 billion, and Abel said Berkshire has a shortlist of acquisition targets. Buffett, 95, sat in the front row. "Greg is doing everything I did and then some," he said, "and he's doing it better in all cases." A giant "Buffett" jersey was raised to the rafters alongside one honoring Charlie Munger.

Spirit Airlines' shutdown, which began in the early hours of Saturday morning, is already rippling across the industry. As Spirit Flight 1833 from Detroit approached Dallas Fort Worth after midnight, its pilot asked air-traffic control if any other Spirit flights were coming in. "You might be the last one," the controller said. "I guess this is it," the pilot replied. But Spirit's death is less an ending than a warning. Airfares have been raised five times since the Iran war squeezed jet-fuel supplies, with a sixth increase under way. American Airlines estimated its fuel costs would jump by $4 billion this year; JetBlue's CEO had to reassure employees the airline isn't approaching bankruptcy. Budget carriers collectively asked the Trump administration for $2.5 billion in fuel-cost relief after meeting with officials last month. "I lived through '08. It's the same stuff," said Avelo CEO Andrew Levy. Spirit's CEO Dave Davis offered a blunter forecast: "Everybody burning cash — we just had a smaller pile to start with," he said. "They're not that far behind us in the race."

The pressure on household budgets extends well beyond the airport. Enrollment in the federal food-stamp program has dropped by nearly 3.5 million people since stricter eligibility rules took effect last July, with Arizona seeing a roughly 50% decline. The new requirements mandate that able-bodied adults aged 18 to 64 without children under 14 work or volunteer at least 80 hours a month — the previous age limit was 54, and exempted adults with children under 18. A Syracuse University professor called the drops "beyond anything we've ever seen." Separately, foreclosure filings hit a six-year high in the first quarter — almost 119,000 properties, up 26% from a year earlier — as surging insurance premiums, property taxes and homeowners association dues layer new costs onto many owners, especially recent buyers.

On the other side of the world, Taiwan's president pulled off a diplomatic feat that infuriated Beijing. Lai Ching-te had been forced to postpone a trip to Eswatini, Taiwan's sole African diplomatic ally, after Taiwanese officials accused China of pressuring three countries to deny him overflight rights. Then on Saturday, Lai announced he had arrived — without saying how he got there. His office sounded triumphant; China's Foreign Ministry said he had "sneaked onto a foreign plane to 'smuggle' himself out of the island." Taiwan will reveal the details only after Lai returns to Taipei. One possible clue: Eswatini's deputy prime minister had been in Taiwan for a Thursday meeting with Lai, and he may have hitched a ride on her return flight.

The question of how the U.S. matches its rivals in the age of cheap, swarming weapons is getting sharper. Teardowns of drones recovered in Ukraine show how dependent both sides are on Chinese components — batteries, motors and unmarked "brain" chips all traced to Chinese suppliers. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has pledged $1.1 billion for a "Drone Dominance" program aiming to buy 340,000 FPV drones from American makers and drive per-unit costs to $2,300. But U.S.-made military quadcopters currently run upward of $15,000 — at least three times a Chinese equivalent — and building the domestic supply chain for batteries and motors could take a decade or more.

In domestic politics, Iowa is emerging as an improbable battleground. The state backed Trump by 13 points in 2024, but nonpartisan analysts now rate its governor's race and two of its four House contests as tossups, fueled by rural economic angst over rising fuel and fertilizer costs. The likely Democratic nominee for governor, state Auditor Rob Sand, quotes the Bible, owns two handguns and asks audiences to sing "America the Beautiful" at campaign events. Vice President Vance visits Tuesday. And inside the Democratic Party's fundraising infrastructure, trouble is brewing: ActBlue's CEO has more than doubled operating expenses from the previous presidential election cycle, spent at least $2.8 million on security since 2023, fired the nonprofit's general counsel and dismissed lawyers' recommendations on fraud prevention — all while the platform faces a Justice Department investigation and congressional scrutiny focused in part on foreign-donation controls, six months before the midterms.

A Fed chair who stayed because the alternative felt worse, a conglomerate navigating its first meeting under new leadership, an airline industry entering the early stages of a fuel-driven shakeout, and millions of Americans losing food benefits under tightened rules — the thread this weekend is institutions and safety nets being tested by forces their architects didn't anticipate, with the people inside them calculating how much strain they can absorb before something else gives.

ZEITGEIST DISPATCH — May 3, 2026

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