The stupidest possible scenario
In 2016 John Scalzi articulated “Trump’s Razor”, in which we are advised to “ascertain the stupidest possible scenario that can be reconciled with the available facts” and that answer is likely correct.
But even long-time watchers of this nonsense were at a loss to ascertain (or imagine) scenarios stupid enough to match the math behind this week’s tariff announcements that wiped out nearly $2 trillion of value in the American stock market in a single day of trading.
The math behind the tariffs is so dizzyingly stupid that even the AI LLMs from which the calculations were clearly derived also included warnings about why using these formulas would be a bad idea.
10% tariffs on the Heard and McDonald Islands (human population: 0), and on the Chagos Islands, on which the only resident humans are US and British military personnel.
The American Prospect’s David Dayen writes that the tariffs aren’t meant to be coherent; that they’re the equivalent of a mob boss breaking legs and demanding protection money. Countries and companies will come crawling to TFP seeking relief, ready to funnel more money to him and his family in exchange for exemption from the real harm imposed by these made up numbers.
One @#$%ing thing
Tonight I subscribed to Letters from an American, a daily newsletter by historian Heather Cox Richardson. (I wish it weren’t on Substack.) She does a far better job than me of keeping up with and summarizing news developments of the day. It’s all so much to track.
Reminder that Saturday, April 5 is a (non-violent) National Day of Action. Find an event near you. If you’re joining and posting to social media about it, consider cropping or blurring the faces of the people around you.
All the @#$%ing things
Night 44: Donated to two campaigns for Congress in 2026
Night 43: Looked at projects tracking individuals abducted by ICE
Night 42: Learned more about Louis Armstrong, in his own words
Night 41: Revisited 20 lessons on tyranny
Night 40: Donated to victims of the LA fires
Night 39: Donated to a non-profit disaster alert service
Night 38: Removed Meta apps from my phone
Night 37: Added a new subscription for politics and culture news
Night 36: Catalogued things we know about Memlon Fuchs
Night 35: Described an early MAGA rift
Night 34: The gap between what voters want and what they’re getting
Night 33: An editorial policy of sorts
Night 32: Requesting records when medical claims are denied
Night 31: Things I’ve learned about money laundering
Night 30: Turned to the words of Frederick Douglass
Night 29: Canceled my OpenAI subscription
Night 28: Donated money to three orgs
Night 27: Addressed a hazardous tile floor
Night 26: Picked up trash with the Trash Falcons
Night 25: Learned more about Pete Hegseth than I wanted to
Night 24: Canceled recurring subscriptions I no longer need
Night 23: Dwelt in gratitude
Night 22: Picked up pie from a favorite local business
Night 21: Downsized my clothes closet
Night 20: Increased my monthly contribution to the ACLU
Night 19: Deleted a blog from two decades ago
Night 18: Researched nonprofit board opportunities
Night 17: Contributed to Trans Lifeline
Night 16: Spent time together with loved ones
Night 15: Bought from a not-for-profit online store
Night 14: Refined an icon and wordmark
Night 13: Contributed to the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund
Night 12: Contributed to The Guardian
Night 11: Read, reflected, and rested
Night 10: Sent money to support vaccinations in Nigeria
Night 9: Sent money to a friend in need
Night 8: Gave gifts and spoke words of appreciation aloud
Night 7: Contributed to a California-focused nonprofit newsroom
Night 6: Made homemade donuts for my team
Night 5: Opted into a paid Buttondown tier
Night 4: Reviewed my local election results
Night 3: Deactivated my X account
Night 2: Contributed to my local nonprofit newsroom
Night 1: Started by starting
Words, sorts, thinks, and actions by Chris Ereneta, from Oakland, California. Thanks for reading! Consider forwarding this to a friend! Thoughtful feedback and questions are welcomed at that.often@gmail.com