Will there be a season?
Mitch might get a seventh year of eligibility out of this, at least
The subject of today’s letter is not something I am not exactly thrilled to be addressing. But preseason tournament cancellations, full-schedule conference cancellations, and charged comments from coaches like Rich Pitino suggest that another postponement of college basketball might be in the cards.
So I’m dropping into the ‘stack to address… just how likely are we talking here?
Let me step back here a second, with respect to my future Brooklyn neighbor James Harden. No league, professional or amateur, is operating under ideal circumstances, not even the NFL, which thought hypothetical TV gains would effectively cancel out the lack of fan attendance at stadiums. (Ron Howard voice: It didn’t.) While I have sensed some cosmic relief from sports fans that games have returned to television, the leagues’ priorities had more to do with keeping the leagues on the rails financially than with crowning the champions.
Both owners and players have skin in the game at the pro level, which has made for a number of surprising compromises, although naturally the players have carried the water almost universally. The NBA made a great show of sparing no expense in their COVID protocols; they were rewarded with a shockingly low positive rates in Orlando, effectively creating a blueprint for how to keep games going during an international pandemic.
However, that’s the pros. At the college level, the NCAA is barely hanging on. They do not have big cash reserves or TV money surplus to throw towards making sure that the events can happen safely; the NBA’s blueprint means nothing to them if they can’t pay the entry costs.
When ESPN cancelled the preseason basketball buffet, I read between the lines; no one could come to an agreement on who would be footing the bill for the bubble’s precautions, so there was no point in producing the event. Given that college basketball’s advertising landscape is far less lucrative than its pro counterpoint, this might have been an inevitability. It was a nice dream, but ultimately an unrealistic one.
That experience made the idea of another postponement take hold, for me. Safety aside—big aside!—is playing a season of any kind financially viable, if they can’t even figure out how to play the highly marketed and co-branded preseason tourneys? Expecting low-to-no fan turnout this season at Allen Fieldhouse, the Jayhawks are selling fans cardboard cutouts, with proceeds going to help with the “financial shortfalls” in the athletics department. If you’ve read this newsletter before, you know that I’m not exactly bullish on the AD’s business sense. They’re already asking Williams Fund donors to contribute 20% more than their annual donation, in order to try to gain some ground on a $20M-$30M deficit, according to Jeff Long’s recent e-mail to donors. If they sell a standee for every seat in Allen Fieldhouse, 16300 x $62 nets them a little over a million. Some of the raffle prizes are cool and all, but they almost universally rely on access to coaches, players and facilities, as well as local businesses in Lawrence. The department’s future is banking on over-extending their private donors.
Right now, safety is the priority—but the money stuff looks bad. If a marquee program like Kansas can’t make the math work, do mid-majors and small conference teams even stand a chance? All players who participate in the shortened season get an extra year of eligibility, no matter the result—a crummy reward for having to maintain a level of discipline above that of their non-athlete peers at school, but certainly not nothing. The players won’t get a dime no matter how many cardboard cutouts are sold. While KU’s basketball program isn’t so lucrative that they could make themselves independent from the conference, it will live on if we have to hit pause again. Others might not be so lucky.
So what are we playing for?
Games are on the horizon, including a big tilt against Gonzaga on Thanksgiving, and my guess is that those games are going to get played, even if the virus spikes continue nationwide. What happens after that all depends on how the next few months go.
Let me be clear—I want a season. But am I convinced its in the best interests of the players, coaches and team staff? I’m not.