As KU closed out another disappointing tournament run, things moved quickly. Bill Self is back — I attempted to write out a timely argument for his return, but within 24 hours they announced it officially, making the exercise irrelevant. I’ll stop talking about what I didn’t write, I swear.

So, let’s see. Offseason headlines. KU signed the number one player in the high school ranks, Tyran Stokes, a bendy point forward who I am excited about. We came to terms with Paul Mbiya, who earned new NIL leverage after a bushel of good minutes in the tournament.

Kohl Rosario is back, and KU committed to the potential of a second season that ideally comes with a better percentage from the deep areas. Kohl Rosario remains an awesome fit, on paper. They signed Leroy Blyden Jr., a small Toledo guard with great-looking metrics in a weaker conference. I have always loved Taylen Kinney’s whole deal, his game a sort-of less-bracing LaMelo style variant, and I’m excited to see what kind of playmaking he and Stokes can get into.

In the interest of time, I am skipping a few transactions here, all of which were necessary to fill out a competitive big conference roster. Even though it kind of doesn’t feel (subjective) like we built out the roster in a way commensurate with our (allegedly) robust resourcing, this looks like the group barring a late add from the EuroBasket universe (which I’d love let’s do it please!)

I don’t put too much stock in preseason rankings — they’re too speculative, largely based on nothing, even if the people putting together these clickable offseason rankings know what they’re doing. ESPN has us at 23. The Athletic has us at 17. A year ago, equipped with the #1 recruit, Darryn Peterson, Kansas was ranked #1 in the AP. Assuming we play Stokes in his correct position — which is unsafe to assume — I’m having a hard time grasping the delta there.

I want to talk about Stokes, quickly. Despite last season’s roller-coaster DP narrative, I think Stokes could actually fit in quite well with this group and in Self’s system. While Stokes isn’t a shooter, last year’s arrangement showcased our drastic need for on-ball playmakers, guys who can drive it and make good decisions from there. With Stokes and Kinney, we have two, especially if we’re living purely in the hypothetical idea space that the preseason demands. The tape is excellent, and everywhere. He’s a highly polished finisher, the presumptive #1 pick in the 2027 NBA Draft, and is unlikely to be relegated to a purely off-ball option in the way Peterson was. I am optimistic about it — I’ve never been burned before haha!

By the way, if you haven’t clocked his commitment reveal on the NBA pregame show, I would advise you to check it out as a matter of anthropological record — so many plugs, so many disparate things happening, Stokes is scrambling to check all the boxes on all of his brand agreements while also giving the KU program its appropriate shine, at least for this specific, weird situation. It’s the high-end of the sport in a capsule, and I kinda love it.

So, back to the rankings, which we shouldn’t care about but also always do. I think a number of things are happening here, all informed by recent seasons. If you watched the Final Four, in addition to watching Kansas basketball’s regular season and tournament, you probably observed that the semifinalists were all much bigger than Kansas. The eye-test was solid. Michigan started five transfers in the NCAA title game and won it. Arizona and Illinois showcased a captivating blueprint for the NIL era — employing several large Europeans, each, alongside good guards. After a few years of maybe thinking the Bill Selfs of the world are growing obsolete, we got a full hit of that idea last season as KU never coalesced into a balanced and consistent team. That’s one anchor on this preseason projection.

Here’s another — the roster-building feels scrappy, a scramble to find 15 guys every offseason. It does not feel like Kansas is on the front foot with any of this. While it’s hilarious that Kentucky set aside tons of $$$ for Stokes, and struck out, it’s also a cautionary sequence. By going all in on Stokes, they had to sit out the early part of the portal. This sideplot could be yet another sign that the blue blood programs don’t have the juice they used to in a full-on free agency model.

Having the best freshman in the sport alongside a number of competent teammates is usually enough for KU to be in the preseason top 5. I want to say this again — Kansas added Darryn Peterson to the mix after getting obliterated by Gonzaga in 2024’s second round, and that was easily good enough for #1 in the AP.

I can’t decide if I’m trying to weigh in on this prediction economy, Kansas’s roster, or the state of NIL in college basketball, and maybe it’s all of the above. But… 17 and 23? Strange, no? The media around the sport is convinced that this team isn’t a serious contender — and when they get around to predicting the Big 12 Champion, KU is third in the mix, maybe fourth. Something has fundamentally changed in how people see the current KU regime. Let’s hope we can find an opportunity¹ in that. I’m dying for it.