There's basketball today!
At 1:30ET/12:30CT, KU opens their season against the top-ranked team in the country, Gonzaga. With KU’s original preseason schedule wiped off the map by COVID-related cancellations, getting a game of this caliber on short notice speaks to the power of the program. But this season, we’re working with a lot less information in the shaky buildup to basketball during an international pandemic. Bill Self straight-up said “We’re not very prepared.” It’s hard to know what to expect, but the spread is Gonzaga -5.5… right where we want it to be.
Here’s what’s on my mind as we wait a few hours for tip:
Who is the fifth starter?
During Monday’s media availability, Self mentioned that he had decided on four starters:
G Marcus Garrett
G Ochai Agbaji
G Christian Braun
F David McCormack
Combing KU’s roster for ideas is a fun exercise, because this year’s team is stuffed with intriguing looks. There’s an almost RPG-like element to lineup building; hypothetically, KU can play a lot of different ways and feature a variety of skillsets. While they’ll use a lot of four-out, one-in lineups in 2020/21, the size of KU’s reserve wings (Jalen Wilson and Tristan Enaruna are both 6’8’’) could create all kinds of mismatches on offense.
However, I’m thinking Self sticks with his best defensive lineup for game 1, especially as it pertains to Gonzaga. Even though Gonzaga brought in their highest-ever ranked recruit, Jalen Suggs, center Drew Timme will anchor their offense. To prevent McCormack from getting into quick foul trouble, they’re going to need some size and energy on defense.
Down the line, I think the fifth starter will be Bryce Thompson, with a couple appearances by Tyon Grant-Foster. Those guys can score, and a lineup pairing one of them with Garrett/Agbaji/Braun is going to be tough to stay in front of. But neither Thompson or Grant-Foster are known for their defense right now.
So I think I’m hearing Mitch Lightfoot’s music. They need McCormack to be productive tomorrow, and the Lightfoot reinforcement on defense/foul absorption makes the most sense to me.
Marcus Garrett is #1
ESPN writer John Gasaway released his top 25 college players ranking, and I did some light image-editing:
I’m psyched that Garrett is getting recognition in college media, because he’s not moving the needle with pro scouts just yet. (On NBADraft.net, which is assembled by NBA scouts directly, he is not projected to be drafted. ESPN draftnik Johnathan Givony has him as the #43 prospect). I’m not a Luke Garza fan, so I think it’s cool that Garrett has a credible claim to being the best player in college hoops.
Garrett fascinates me. He is the favorite to win DPOY for the second straight year, and I believe his skill and savvy on that side of the ball will translate to the next level. But there are plenty of questions about the versatility of his game, questions he will hopefully address as KU’s de facto lead ball-handler. Can Garrett create for others, and score out of the pick and roll? Are we gonna see some floaters or other crafty shots around the goal? While many have made the Pat Beverley comparison, Beverley bounced around in Europe before landing in the NBA. Can Garrett pave a more direct path?
Garrett is the consummate Bill Self player. When he arrived, he didn’t look like much, but he’s constantly added to his game and became the game’s premier lockdown defender. If he has a competent season on offense, he’s in All-America territory. Will the game at large take notice?
What are the chances the season goes smoothly?
Myron Medcalf—who is my favorite writer in ESPN’s college basketball group thanks to his sharp analysis as well as his realistic and player-focused perspective—predicts “there is about a 25% chance that the season unfolds without major interruption.” I think 25% seems high (and so do some of the analysts in that roundtable), because the numbers just don’t add up in college basketball like they might in college football.
While the NCAA would tell you that over 80% of college football games are getting played, most of them have been affected by positive COVID tests and isolating. They’re compromised. College basketball has smaller rosters, and therefore less room to avoid disaster; if four players have to sit, we’re looking at cancellations, not postponements. The money that flows through college football—and enables expensive and widespread testing protocols—is not present in hoops.
KU is going to make it through this, as will all the other big programs. But will teams in the lower rungs of the sport make it through the season? I doubt it.
Running it back!
Ending on a positive note—and intentionally ignoring my rage about Frank Mason’s rescinded QO—by noting that both Morris brothers will remain in LA with the Lakers and the Clippers respectively. Lfg!
A purely hunch-based prediction
Jayhawks by three. Happy Thanksgiving to all.