Ochai Agbaji has attempted 7 free throws this season
Why that's a problem
A couple of weeks ago, Nets guard Spencer Dinwiddie broke basketball Kayfabe by claiming that it was easier to score in the NBA than it is in college. I’ve always admired Dinwiddie’s candor. He’s a G-League success story who outworked his peer group to become one of the league’s most reliable off-the-bench creators; in a media landscape where stars have little incentive to say anything interesting, he’s a reliable quote. A three-year player at Colorado, he doesn’t really have an axe to grind, either way.
During last week’s Maui Invitational title game, the offensive fouls were a-flyin’. It was a bit distressing to watch Devon Dotson fly into the lane after beating his man on the perimeter, only to careen into a standee-esque help defender. (For what it’s worth, the bad calls went both ways, as they often do in college basketball). By initiating a defensive breakdown that rippled through the defense, Dotson was punished for his efforts. This is not rewarding to watch.
However, it does stand to reason. In college basketball, it’s easier to help off the ball; there’s much less space underneath the three-point line, and zones often feel more effective than they do in the pros. Defenses can pack under the hoop, and good college offenses don’t often feature five above-average shooters. Where quick, powerful drives to the rack are rewarded in the NBA, those same quick strikes are perilous in college against a disciplined defensive scheme. That feedback loop affects the players.
This is my best guess to what is hampering Ochai Agbaji so far this season. To be fair, Agbaji is not the Jayhawks’ most important player, but he’s a critical one—if Agbaji lives up to the NBA Draft chatter, he’ll be a much-needed scorer and creator if the Jayhawks make a title run. So far this year, Agbaji has been more decisive, and looked quicker toward the hoop—this is good, because he’s in the low 30s as a three-point shooter. But he can also hesitate on these same drives; after beating his man with an explosive first step, he’ll hang in the lane and invite help defenders. Agbaji has played over 33 minutes per game on average and he has taken seven free throws. Seven! This is a trend that needs to change.
Part of this phenomenon could be one of the drawbacks of Self’s style: fear of messing up. In Self’s tenure, most young players are so afraid of making a defensive mistake or taking a shot considered “bad”—and earning the instantaneous yanking that results from those decisions—that they freeze up sometimes. Even as a high school player, Agbaji was coming off the bench for his AAU team; he’s not exactly Josh Jackson or even Marcus Garrett, fearless players who know they need to be on the court, mistakes and all.
[Sidebar: This is why I’ve always reserved affection for Cheick Diallo, Jayhawk one-and-done wonder. His tween-y, light-on-defense style of play was never going to fly in a Self system, but based on his size, profile and touch, he knew he’d be a first-rounder even in the worst of scenarios. Anytime he got on the floor, he shot it the first time he touched it, virtually every time. If he missed it, he was banking on the fact that he probably could last until the next play stoppage, and if he made it, he just bought himself at least another minute of run. Legend.]
I’m fascinated by Agbaji; I feel like he’s exactly the sort of player that represents the changing recruiting landscape, where a bunch of elite players (players who won’t even entertain playing college basketball in about 18 months’ time) are clustered at the top of rankings but after that it’s a free-for-all. Agbaji is 6’5’’, but plays bigger, and is one of the keys to KU’s small-ball strength at the given moment. He can switch onto bigger guys easily. Unlocking Agbaji is an imperative, and that means getting him to the stripe.
Analytics has pushed basketball to find efficiencies, no matter how extreme—it’s no mistake that James Harden, who has spent the last 3-4 seasons hacking basketball, gets to the line 14 times a night, averaging 13.1 PPG from the stripe alone this season. Agbaji shot free throws at about 70% last year, which is certainly high enough to suggest he should be there more. So why isn’t this happening?
Getting to the free throw line is a result, not an ideology in itself. But the long and short of it is that slashy combo guards should get to the line. During his senior season in Bill Self’s offense—which was much less free-flowing than it is now—Keith Langford made it to the line five times a game. Duke freshman Vernon Carey Jr., who leads the nation in FTA, gets there eight times a game.
I’m not asking for eight. But one trip a game would be a fine start, and getting easy money will help Agbaji dissolve other issues with his floor game.