KU *must* play small-ball (and other observations)
Last night’s game against Kentucky in Indianapolis—loving the logic of a neutral site game during a pandemic! good work everyone—was hard to watch. Like, physically difficult. KU shot 30% and won, and Kentucky missed so many three pointers in a row that when they finally made one, it was cause for celebration. Kentucky started four freshman and one senior, and that upperclassman—Olivier Sarr—couldn’t stay on the floor, thanks to a number of bone-headed fouls. The combo of David McCormack, Christian Braun, and Ochai Agbaji went a combined 8/36 from the field. The word “rock fight” got thrown around a lot, which is definitely what you want with blue-blooded college basketball.
However, despite the fact that last night’s game made me question “why are we doing this?” more than ever—Marcus Garrett holding his chest on the sideline while Dick Vitale wondered about his mysterious “illness” was some alarming and problematic stuff!—I oddly come away feeling better about the group KU has this year. This team has some dudes who can flat-out hoop, and the faster they figure out their optimal playing style, the faster they’ll become one of the country’s most dominant (and potentially thrilling to watch) teams.
So now the question is, will they get there during this season, one that will be a choppy ride the whole way? I have a few concerns.
Will KU commit to playing small?
In basketball, the “eye test” is often deceiving. Watching a game live, it’s not unusual to feel one way about a basketball performance, only to dig into the numbers later to discover a different perspective. However, as you can see in the stats provided above, what we’re seeing vs. what’s happening in the analytics matches up nicely.
KU has been awful when a big man is on the floor; in the video above from HoopVision, you can see how much better our sets flow with all-guard looks. (Special shout out to Marcus Garrett, competently running the 5 on offense). I don’t think McCormack is this bad—he was effective at times last year running the baseline, playing off of Doke and crashing around in second units—but the role of rim defender/back-to-the-basket possession-eater is not, as American poet laureate Jack Harlow might say, what’s poppin’.
Playing small had its disadvantages. In those lineups, KU switched everything on defense, resulting in many miscues. Those will get ironed out over time, if they commit to playing that way. Some nights, we could get killed on the glass, but Jalen Wilson (10 rebounds last night) and Christian Braun (14!) have also proven to be sneakily effective rebounders who hold their own with positioning and activity. Kentucky is probably the longest team in America, and we closed them out with guards. If we can play small against Kentucky, we can play small against anyone.
The question is: will Bill Self commit to this, or will he be stubborn about keeping the high-low intact, as he has been in the past? In crunch time, Self went with the smaller lineup, knowing that having a big man out on the floor hurt KU’s chances of winning. Let’s hope that lesson sticks. The sooner it does, the better.
Bill James fires a take
Rustin sent this over post-game, and I always love a good basketball tweet from James. He always goes for it. One might think, “what game was he watching?” or “who asked for this?” but that’s just pure, uncut James wisdom right there.
Dajuan Harris has to be out there
I can’t get over Dajuan Harris. He’s a hooper—in 25 minutes last night, he collected five assists and four steals. A few steals led to easy fast-break buckets in a game where no bucket of any fashion came easily. He’s like Rondo on this year’s Lakers—they’re better when he is on the floor, even if he doesn’t shoot once.
The way I see it, if KU can commit to the five-guard look, Harris is a vital piece of our success there. While it’s clearly important for Self/Garrett to prove that Marcus can play the 1, KU is better when he’s playing off the ball on offense and can spare more energy on defense. A five-guard, switch-everything look makes Marcus Garrett even more valuable; at this level, he can definitely guard 5s, or at least give them a handful. He’s gonna have to shoot the ball well this year to make noise with NBA scouts no matter where he plays. So why force anything?
Lastly, Jalen Wilson
It looks like the whole RJ Hampton thing worked out after all (with special thanks to John Beilein).