Is Playing "Grimy" Overrated?
On Saturday, KU put 87 on Oklahoma. On Monday night, the offense kept trucking, to the tune of 91 points against Iowa State for a 20-point win at home. Within the context of the current season these results could scan as a couple of things from afar: either that the season-long dam is beginning to break on offense, or that KU is getting a little sloppy on defense. Anyone who has ever played pickup basketball with me will not be surprised to hear me say “You have to score to win!” But Bill Self has a different outlook, and it’s worth a closer look.
Here’s Self (via KC Star) on the topic of KU’s offensive explosion the past two games:
“I think sometimes that’s fool’s gold, though,” Kansas coach Bill Self of offense carrying the day. “I don’t think that’s how this team will win consistently. I still think the grimier it is the more we should like it.”
This is a core Self principle. While I am displeased that he has not shaken the term “fool’s gold” when it comes to three-pointers—which are the lifeblood of the contemporary game at the college level and above—I know where Self is coming from. At the D1 level, offense output varies from game to game, because shooting varies from game to game. A couple of years back, Ken Pomeroy dissected the state of “offense vs. defense” in college basketball, and found that one of the things that a defense is least in control of is opponent 3PT%. There’s probably not a single Kansas fan in existence that hasn’t lived this reality, thanks to some truly mind-numbing shooting performances by opponents in the recent past.
But the larger point of the study was to prove that offense has more influence in a game’s outcome, relative to defense. Kansas has an incredible defense this year, one that stand as the best ever Bill Self defense, which is saying something. But is it enough without a good offense? Does “griming” up a game give Kansas a superlative advantage?
Ask Virginia: It does not. I have a feeling Self knows this, but Self’s stance on the matter has everything to do with variance. A control freak, Self sticks to what he can control, and perfecting it throughout the season. The categories where KU regularly underwhelms (3PA, FT%) are the least of his concerns. While KU has certainly adjusted its offensive attack in recent years, thanks to the necessity of a few small-ball-dominant rosters, those adjustments are consistent with the emphasis on three pointers across college basketball.
While OU and ISU aren’t any good, the shot-making in both games (Devon Dotson, go off, king!) opened the floor, providing the most free-flowing Kansas offense of the season. As Pomeroy writes, a good offense beats a good defense, and the mythology that a good defense “sets the tone” and is more consistent than a good offense is very likely an illusion. Wouldn’t a push toward a better, more open flow on offense help this team going forward? No matter where their defensive efficiency ends up at season’s end, defense won’t be KU’s downfall this year.
Self knows grimy; he’s the master of it. No one, save for maybe Jay Wright, knows how to stretch a late-game clock like Self does. He is chief of choppiness, bending time, generating new possessions. Some nights you’re on fire from deep, and some nights you suck. That’s hardly firm ground to build a system on, even with a team (like this year’s, honestly) that could collect long rebounds successfully.
But… you have to score to win. Here’s to hoping that Kansas leans into their recent offensive success on Saturday against a great, efficient Baylor team. Let it fly. The defense isn’t going anywhere.