Is it as bad as it looks?
My short answer: No. I don’t think so.
Before you swiftly delete this e-mail, hear me out. My rationale is based off a couple of ideas: for one, the current level of Jayhawk basketball is hideous to behold. But it’s impossible that any team with this kind of talent is this incompetent at offense.
Another one—the four losses that KU incurred in January (OSU, Baylor, OU and UT) all might not look bad at the end of the season. OU is legit— the Sooners knocked off four AP top-10 teams in January, a tear that has launched them from unranked to #9. (They lost to Tech last night in a rock fight, but they were missing Austin Reaves for the second straight game). Baylor looks to be right there with Gonzaga (Kenpom backs up that assertion) and Self rarely wins in Stillwater. The UT game was a borderline massacre, to the point where I turned it off and watched the end later when cooler thoughts would prevail, but it’s an unnecessary road game where the opponent shot 61% from three. In terms of shot quality, KU actually found good looks all game, according to shot chart data:
On Monday, AP voters decided to keep KU in the top 25 at #23. I personally don’t care about the top 25 longevity record—I would trade any single one of these continuity records for a banner—but I think the UT loss was the biggest threat to it yet, with a looming game at Morgantown this weekend. If it ends… that’s one hell of a run!
Braun and Wilson… wya
This feels like a long time ago
I am tempted to draft a Nextdoor post questioning the whereabouts of Jalen Wilson and Christian Braun, who are currently lost in the Jayhawks offense. I don’t necessarily see this as purely a Self thing, or purely a half-court-offense thing. That’s because Wilson and Braun seem to have plenty of opportunities—whether its open looks off the catch, or hand-offs that benefit from a head of steam toward the hoop.
Though they’re probably the team’s best two rebounders, in terms of skill, they don’t attack the rim on offense as much as you’d think. They rarely shoot free throws; Braun got there, on average, once a game in January (8 FT in 8 games). Wilson shot 8 FTs in both the TCU and Texas games, and then shot 13 total in the next six games combined. This is also a long-standing Ochai Agbaji problem. All three perimeter players can be hard to stay in front of, and a lack of aggression going toward the rim* has cost Braun and Wilson their early season momentum. They’re looking to establish their rhythm from the outside-in, which is more challenging than the other way around.
*I hate the college charge rule, and anticipate that it will change in the future. But no one is more afraid of the rule than a Jayhawk perimeter player who already has one first half foul.
Braun and Wilson get the ball in space, and you can see them thinking—jumpers off the bounce are straight up more difficult to make, and Wilson and Braun seem to put the ball on the deck a lot instead of taking advantage of catch-and-shoot windows. Maybe some of these opportunities happen too early in the clock for everyone’s comfort. Maybe it’s the system, but maybe it’s not. In theory, it’s correctible… but more on that in a minute.
The non-con narrative
In the COVID era, it’s tempting to live out alternate timelines in the imagination. When it comes to the 20-21 Kansas season, the one I can’t get past is the fantasy of having a normal non-con schedule.
Let’s pretend COVID never happens, and KU hosts its usual slate of unremarkable non-conference games. A few Ivys, a few local teams, some teams at the fringes of D-I looking for a quick payout. In years where rotations have taken time to sort out, those games could be massive for an individual players’ confidence. If Svi Mykhailiuk didn’t have that annual Pitt State game to go off in, he might have never found the courage to shoot like he did in the Duke Elite 8 game. Those December games are usually boring and unremarkable. But those reps matter.
It’s very easy to envision Tyon Grant-Foster getting 30 against Tarleton St, and then going into the non-conference with a head of steam as an off-the-bench microwave. Bryce Thompson’s freshman year will go down as a lost one, but he created offense in early-season games against high-level competition before hitting a wall in a defense-minded conference. You could absolutely see Thompson midrange sniping past like, Dartmouth, and leveling up his confidence. I’m an Enaruna fan, mistakes and all, but there’s little chance he finds success in the pressure-ridden conference games KU has left, games where Self tends to keep a short leash on his rotation players; a double-double against UMKC on Dec 27 could have done wonders for him.
Like last year’s tragic tournament cancellation, we’ll never know how these alternate scenarios could have played out. This KU team is deep and long on the perimeter, but I just don’t think they’ll have the time to reach their ceiling. It’s too bad, but it’s a reality that has pushed the others blue bloods season’s off the rails, too.
What is a great shot at KU?
Bill Self has a history of distrusting the three. I won’t belabor the point, because KU’s head coach has made compelling adjustments as three-point shooting has revolutionized the sport, most famously culminating in a four-out/one-in shape that punched a ticket to the Final Four in 2018. In general, his philosophies have hemmed close to whatever analytics-based philosophies will tell you—there’s definitely some style there, but you get the sense that Self plays by the book. It does not help that KU seems to be suffering from some good old-fashioned bad luck:
However—and this is a heat-check of a take if there ever was one—I wonder about the definition of a “great shot” at KU, and whether our offense prioritizes those shots too much, when plenty of good shots (ones that are worth more on paper!) are getting passed on. In years past, an easy lob has been the pinnacle of a great Self play design; while we still have a lot of chop-style actions in our half-court offense, it seems like opponent defenses are sitting on those, especially if KU starts throwing up bricks early.
I’d love to see more easy stuff drawn up for the corners, or pin-downs revealing nice catch-and-shoots at the wing. Hell, David McCormack—who is our best offensive player right now, which tells you all that you need to know—made an uncontested top-of-the-key three in the UT game. I don’t think you need to rip apart the offensive playbook, as bad and stagnant as things have gotten. But a few wrinkles could go a long way.
Self has encouraged to team to “let it fly”, and this is the right idea, even though we’ve seen some dismal returns from that approach so far. Everyone is frustrated. In a completely compromised season—one with a potential NCAA sanction floating above the program like a storm cloud—it won’t take that much to get the Jayhawks back to hooping at a level closer to what their talent suggests. I could be proven wrong as soon as tonight, but that’s my read.
On a final note… go Chiefs. We need this.