Do I trust KU to run Providence off the line?
KU is in the Sweet 16, and most Jayhawks fans I know are feeling satisfied.
After all, there’s some evidence that this team loosens up after advancing from the first weekend. The last time this happened was in 2018, KU controlled the whole game against Clemson, which ended up as a closer contest than it looked. In 2017, they blew the doors off of Purdue in the S16, before setting up one of the biggest faceplants in KU tournament history which we won’t get into.
This will be Bill Self’s 11th Sweet 16, and he’s 8-2 at Kansas in this game. Point being, KU should feel good about where they’re at. Yes, the bracket is wide-open when we’re talking about a potential E8 round against a 10-seed or an 11-seed that we know really well, but at this point every team remaining is good or on a tear and you just gotta line up and beat everyone who’s left.
In the build up to Providence, Bill Self has talked a lot about Providence’s off-ball action and how that leads to good looks at three.
Unlike Creighton—who went ahead and made 12 threes against us, just for fun!—Providence’s identity is shooting. The messaging behind our deep defense has been that we’re conscious of running opponents off the line; the little first-half interview CBS forces coaches give even featured Self literally saying we needed to do better running Creighton off the line. EYE TEST ALERT it sure as hell doesn’t look like we do that, and as much as we’ve embraced the three as an offensive necessity, I’m not sure we’ve risen to that watermark on defense. But the fact remains we claim to be aware of the concept, and this awareness (in theory) will be a weapon in this matchup.
Defensive switching is going to be the game. That seems to suggest that McCormack will probably get less run in the matchup, at least on defense; the Jayhawks should look to deploy the Wilson/Harris/Martin/Och/Braun grouping as much as possible. Our data on switching is good, and we’ve improved over the season. The Jayhawks need to give themselves the best possible chance and defensive communication will be paramount. If KU gets burned on switches, or gives Providence extra windows to flip it, they’re going to do so without abandon. And that’s where KU (-7.5) could get beat.
I’m less worried about the offense, which is maybe being generous, as our first-team AP All-America player is in an extended slump. Remy Martin has saved the Jayhawks so far, and others need to meet his level of aggressiveness on O. I read that Christian Braun is 60% from three the past 10 games; if you’re shooting 60% from three, you need to be shooting 3-5 more threes a game at a bare minimum. Chuck that rock my guy! Our season might depend on it!
This game will come down to the defense, and whether KU can keep fighting through screens and not letting Providence burst through under-switched seams. I’m excited about the matchup, because this is the kind of team KU needs to learn how to beat.
Do I trust KU to do what they need to do? I think I do. And that’s as good of a prediction as you’re going to get at press time.
Some other stuff I want to briefly talk about
This is an aside I have nowhere else to publish, but the idea that this is the wrong play by Remy is kind of funny to me. It’s technically true. I’m sure Bill Self’s defensive scheme is focused on taking away easy twos on drives, but the idea that they’re just letting the highest value shot (corner three) in basketball wide open is one of the surrealities of college hoop. In these games, lower seeds are throwing their set offense out the window if someone is going off randomly. Why invite it?!
The scout revealed that this guy can’t shoot it, and I know KU is sticking to the numbers on this, but at whatever professional level Remy ends up at he’s going to have to unlearn that in two seconds. Is dude’s drive even that good of a drive? I know he got the foul but I’m pretty confident almost every D-I player can make a corner three when given like, 10 seconds to do so. As we prepare for Providence, this kind of fundamental ideology worries me.
That’s my piece on it Rock Chalk tonight Streakers!