Devonte' Graham, forever the MIP in our hearts
Of all the major sports awards, the NBA’s end-of-year awards can be the most difficult to understand. Whether this is by design, or not, they tend to bottle a moment, and many of these decisions age poorly even a few years down the line.
Until a recent surge of strong play, it could be hard to fathom that Russell Westbrook was the league’s most valuable player in 2017. James Harden—who won the award in 2019—will almost certainly never win again, even though he continues to produce at about the same level as he has in the last five years. (Harden has been in the top two in MVP voting four out of the last five years, so the media felt that he deserved one, but now they never need to worry about it again) DeAndre Jordan made first team All-NBA in 2016, and deserved it. The hard data behind these performances exists in a sort of vacuum; the in-season context of the accomplishment weighs heavier than in any other sport.
That Devonte’ Graham did not win the Most Improved Player (despite almost certainly being the most or second-most statistically improved played) was not a huge surprise. In recent years, the MIP award has gone to good players that made a leap to All-Star prominence. (Take a gander at the last five or six winners; you’ve heard of them, let’s just say). Players where “the improvement happened off-stage,” as ESPN’s Zach Lowe puts it, get discounted in the current state of media voting. While there’s been an explicit rejection of this status quo by the players—Luka Doncic dismissed an MIP question late in the season, saying that Devonte’ deserved it instead—that sentiment has not trickled into the voting. Yet.
Here’s the results, via the NBA’s press release:
Devonte’—not thrilled!
Even without the validation of hardware, Devonte’ deserves a fuller look, and today’s post is devoted to his remarkable 2019-20 campaign. I have a feeling that next year will be the first season where MIP goes to a player with a more “out-of-nowhere!” narrative. Think more “Duncan Robinson” and less “Paul George.”
A few things that really stuck out to me as I dug a little deeper into his numbers:
Devonte’ made 218 three-pointers this season, good for fifth in the NBA. He made more threes than Trae Young, and shot a better percentage than the All-Star starter.
Some of Graham’s efficiency numbers—like a barely-above-league-average PER—sag because of his poor defensive rating and turnover rate. There’s no sugar-coating that. He was also ghastly near the rim. But, this was essentially Graham’s rookie season, and his usage rate, 26.6% was higher than All-Stars like Khris Middleton, Jimmy Butler and Nikola Vucevic. He’s carrying a lot of the offensive load for a bad team in his second season. If the Hornets get better, I’d expect his efficiency to trend upward as well, even if he finishes plays at about the same rate.
Using the metrics on Ben Falk’s Cleaning the Glass provides a little more forgiving portrait of Devonte’s efficiency profile; his AST:usg ratio is 71st percentile for NBA guard, and he’s being assisted on very few of his own buckets.
Despite the fact that he finished a lot of plays for the Hornets, he assisted on 35.3% of FGs while he was on the floor, which is good for 10th in the NBA, right behind De’Aaron Fox in front of guys like Nikola Jokic.
Graham’s offensive box plus/minus score—I like this stat because it’s a “baseline 0” stat that doesn’t account for playing time, helpfully aiding statistical arguments for players like Norman Powell—is +2.4, which signified an above average NBA starter. If you got to watch Devonte’ in person this year (I got to see him play the Nets, but lose sleep over the fact that I went to the wrong game), I feel like that lines up with the eye test. It doesn’t look fake, or the result of a crappy team that doesn’t know where its points come from.
When team media members + national media members began to write about Devonte’s emergence, a lot of that story focused around his ability to hit pull-up threes. It is no secret that his breakout season relied on them; they’re one of the toughest and most physically draining shots available. While his percentages ticked down as the season went on due to that accumulated fatigue, Hornets coach James Borrego encouraged them. I think that’s a positive trend going forward. We’ve seen plenty of players grow into larger workloads.
As Devonte’ gets physically stronger, his numbers around the rim—both on offense and defense—will improve. He was asked to do a lot for Charlotte, to the point where you could certainly argue that the workload verged on “too much.” He will also clean up the spotty shot selection, which is not uncommon for players in their first couple seasons in the NBA. He’s money from the corner, and I’d expect more action in those hot spots during his third year in the league.
Though Devonte’ felt stiffed by not winning the MIP award, he’s earned the respect of the league and is due for a huge pay-raise, whether through an extension (most likely) or a RFA offer sheet. (His qualifying offer figure is a tick about $2M, so yeah, he’s gonna get that offer sheet). Even if the media had focused on up-and-coming players rather than emerging stars, Graham wouldn’t have been a lock; Heat guard Duncan Robinson’s emergence has been equally insane. (A former D-3 player who transferred to Michigan, where John Beilien never ran a play for him, Robinson shot 45% on eight 3PA a game this season for a contender. That’s mental).
Either way, he didn’t get hardware validation. But he deserved a blow-out, and the future is bright for one of the most beloved Jayhawks of the modern era.