March 17, 2022

Could this happen?!

It’s Thursday morning. You’ve smashed the boss button, whatever your personal boss button may be. (This year’s Boss Button is you Zooming with Tracy Morgan, as one does1). KU plays in 12 hours, a nightcap to a full slate of tournament hoops. If I had a gambling deal, I’d be plugging oodles of free money right here; is it too late to get a gambling deal?

It’s the best sports day of the year, and it hasn’t even started yet.

In the span of a week, Kansas’s reputation among Jayhawk fans has done a complete 180. Their title odds have jumped substantially. Twitter debates about Remy Martin’s utility have disappeared; he’s now widely recognized as the team’s X-factor thanks to a bouncy performance in the Big 12 tourney. THE PROPHECY IS NIGH.

The defense looks fast and good, more competent than it’s looked all season. Self even delivered his greatest quote of the year in the buildup to what’s next; “They’re not my most talented team,” he told the Selection Show broadcast crew. “But they think they are.” The excitement is palpable, and the Jayhawks have earned it.

Winning the Big 12 conference title slotted KU higher in the bracketology universe, landing them in the desirable Midwest bracket as the third overall #1 seed instead of the fourth. Of all potential opponents, KU fans seem to be the most worked up about five-seed Iowa. Providence as the #4 seed in our regional—they are ranked #48 in KenPom—is a gift from the heavens. Of all the two seeds to draw, Auburn is the one KU wanted. The Jayhawks have a path.

My anxiety is through the roof.

How did we get here?

This was supposed to be the year of somewhat muted expectations; when we talked early February, most of us agreed that a run to the Sweet 16 with a crack at the E8 would feel like a success. And believe me, if you’re telling me “a game against Iowa is what stands between KU and the E8,” I’m taking that.

But I’ll always keep wondering; are sky-high hopes and expectations a feature of our fanbase, or a bug? Are we destined for a special outcome, or is the nature of the tournament a formula for sustained and repeatable heartbreak? Will we be fairer to this team’s (somewhat novel!) expectations than we have been in years past2, or will anything short of a F4 (+200 odds, not particularly long!) feel like failure?

This is getting existential. This happens with Jayhawk basketball, where the emotional far outstrips the numbers we can run. And right now, the emotional element of things are cresting, while objective evidence is supporting our most optimistic conclusions. It’s OK to feel absolutely crazy!

The fans will be back in stadiums, and everything is going to feel both new and old. It’s going to be weird, and this is a weird Jayhawks team. It’s not so much the “who?” or the “where?” as it is the “how?” We’ll remember this team for how far they made it into the tournament after last year’s frantic recalibration, and how exactly they did it. That’s the only thing I can predict at tip. This reminds me—let’s hang that 2020 banner as soon as possible.

Can we do this?

The NCAA tournament is the least fair championship-decider in sports. Gonzaga +350 is relatively low for a tourney favorite (their undefeated team carried roughly the same odds last season), but picking a heavy favorite and that selection paying out 3.5x tells you all you need to know about how unlikely it is for any team to win it all. Throw in poor officiating—I cannot WAIT for Big 12 officials to absolutely nuke a whole regional—and the oddities of college basketball’s pace and shot clock, truly anything could and indeed has happened.

So… why not us though?

After the ride we’ve been on with this team, it feels like some sort of unexpected sequence gels with the season’s narrative. There’s a ceiling here that we’ve reached only recently. Can we hover around there, or is the possibility of our offense stalling out just too massive, given the pressure? Will the defense be good enough when the competitive level incrementally increases? Will the team’s strengths hide the flaws, or will it be the other way around? Have we been too hard on this team3?

Right now, these questions are insubstantial, and not just because they are unknowable. But back to the question at hand… can we do this?

I’m thinking YES. RCJH.