May 24, 2022

Bill Self should publicly refuse the Lakers job

The offseason is time for thought experiments and bold, maybe even kind of bad ideas. And while there’s definitely some motion when it comes to KU’s roster right now—icymi, Texas Tech wing Kevin McCullar declared that he would come to the Kansas if he bails on the NBA Draft process—we’re still playing the waiting game until June 1, which is the withdrawal deadline for early entrants who wish to keep NCAA eligibility. As of right now, we must assume that Braun and Wilson will remain in the pool; Self seems to be leaning on that expectation some, and I’m excited to offer the cutting-edge prediction of “we’ll see what happens.1”

Anyway, on to my cute little bit here. This week, news went around that Michigan head coach Juwan Howard declined an invitation to interview for the open Lakers head coaching job. The timing was … interesting, given that the Lakers have already publicly identified their final candidates. I can’t say for sure that the “source” on that Howard rumor was Howard, but, come on now, I can’t imagine the Varys’s of the college basketball world are fully locked in on Juwan Howard rumors right now.

One of Kansas fans’ favorite past-times is speculating about what might happen if Self were to leave Kansas; I think there’s a less than zero chance this happens, but it’s still fun to talk about, because the next chapter of Kansas basketball is just that undefined and unknowable. Self loves the mystique. Whether it’s the looming sanctions, his long relationship with the San Antonio Spurs front office, or the fact that his house is perpetually on sale (good market to sell in, tho!), these vapors collide to fuel speculation on a semi-annual basis, and that’s not by accident. He’s even talked to NBA teams about vacancies, no follow up questions, please.

I do not find current speculation credible in any way, as hiring Bill Self to coach an NBA team would run counter to every single current trend in NBA coach hiring practices. Chase Buford will be an NBA coach before Bill Self will. That doesn’t mean that I think Buford is more suited to the role, and I honestly think Self would be fine, firmly in the middle of my preferred 5-20-52 slide rule when it comes to NBA coaches. But someone like Buford is already in an NBA environment, coaching to the organization’s system and preferred development culture. Self taking an NBA role would be a step down ego-wise, a step down in terms of creative input, and almost certainly a paycut.

However, Self has always been a savvy marketer, a figure who knows how to play up a persona that belies a natural intelligence (at least as it applies to basketball stuff). He knows it’s not important to actually, legitimately consider a leap to the NBA, but almost everyone in his orbit wins if he appears like he is considering it.

Let me lay out my logic, and here’s why I think the Howard thing is so genius, if a tad brazen. Howard turning down the Lakers is a tacit endorsement of his program at Michigan, and the fact that his “decision” involved his two sons—Jace, a rising junior guard at UM, and the inbound Jett, a top-50 prospect—signals to recruits that he plans to stick at UM for at least a couple more years (Jett Howard is not currently on any 2023 draft board that I’ve seen).

It’s an optics victory across multiple fronts. Howard needed a bit of a boost post-punch, and by blasting this info out there, he stays on the NBA radar even when no one was asking “hey is Juwan Howard gonna leap to the NBA?” His name was not hot, but now it’s hotter. He’s planted the seed for the move, and I’m sure his representation is thrilled about this development, should something work out down the line.

Soon, the Lakers will announce who their head coach is, and I’m guessing it’s going to be Stotts because that is by far the least exciting hire they could make. Bill Self should take advantage of this brief window by declaring his disinterest in the Lakers job, according to “sources.” Even if there is absolutely nothing to it—that now-ancient “Self talks to Cavs” story is as thin as wax paper, always has been—it’s a statement that underlines KU’s resurgence as a title-winning program. You can take this Lakers job and shove it! I’m the head coach at KANSAS. That’s basically what the statement would be, and the way things like this don’t linger in the news long, there won’t be much need to unpack a comment like that.

Not much is cooking right now on the KU front, outside of micromovements on the player front as we await deadlines. Self can change that with one little leak3. If only I had a line in with KU Shams.

Wiggins poster for the kicker!