Bill Self Said Some Stuff That I Liked
Plus my All-Star Game ballot for you to copy
Like a lot of insider-y industries, the cognoscenti of the basketball analytics game like to assert—and re-assert—that they know more than you. They see the game through more enlightened eyes. Hey, you think X PLAYER is having a vastly improved season? Guess again, cuz he actually sucks! If you knew anything about data, you’d know that. I’m not saying that’s the average path of the discourse, but it’s not not that.
I’m being dramatic. But my larger point is, sometimes in sports the eye test fails you, and other times, it tells you all you need to know.
In years’ past, when it comes to Self-coached teams, an tense team dynamic could be working beneath the surface—for instance, last year’s team, where LaGerald Vick could not stop snapping off 30 pieces before eventually leaving the team in the middle of the conference calendar. The spoken record of the team’s successes and failures might not actually track with its actual successes and failures, even with Self’s reputation for being candid (at least relatively speaking).
This team is not a mystery, though. Listen:
“I think that we’re not anywhere close to what we can become, but I think that we’ve shown that we can guard,” Self said.
Kansas fans have seen an exceptional defensive squad this season, and the efforts of the defense were on full display against Stanford and West Virginia. According to KenPom’s metrics—I can knock analytics and tout it in the same piece! Two things can be true!—KU is #2 nationally in defense, behind Virginia, which means they’re basically number one. Even though we’re only 13 games deep in the year, this is not an early season blip. KU ranks #11 in KenPom’s strength of schedule measure, and almost everyone else in the top 20 is a small program cashing out-of-conference checks. You don’t need to know the analytics though to know this team’s strength. You see it every game.
Which brings me to my second Self quote (via The Athletic):
“We’re not going to have a chance to have a special season unless, let’s just call it like it is, unless Ochai and Christian (Braun) and Isaiah Moss can shoot the ball from the perimeter,” Self said. “If we’re able to do that, I think we can be a pretty good offensive team. Right now if I were going to grade us, we’re probably right where a passing grade would be. We haven’t done anything special to really get above that, and we certainly haven’t done much to get below it.”
Shooting is the most coveted skill throughout every level of basketball right now, and even the best shooting teams would probably like more of it. But this observation also tracks well with what even a casual observer would pick up on: KU needs to shoot the ball better to get its offense flowing. Whether it’s Agbaji—I get less optimistic about his big breakout by the game, although his FTA average is inching up toward two attempts a game!—Braun or Moss, someone’s going to have to space out the offense.
This year’s rotation is an interesting puzzle, but if you’ve been watching, this is no revelation. If college observed the NBA’s rules—24 second shot clock, 48 minutes—the idea of spacing out Doke and McCormack’s minutes would be more feasible. But that’s probably unrealistic in this format and those dudes are going to share the floor a lot. (It’s not necessarily a knock on either individual that they’re somewhat incompatible—for instance, Knicks forwards Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson are solid NBA rotation pieces that absolutely cannot be on the floor together).
Since Moss’s heat-checking from three is as reliable as a rabbit-ear antenna, it’s more likely that someone like freshman Christian Braun, emboldened by recent success, will be the piece that unlocks KU’s broken-looking half-court. Right now, where we want the ball to go is too predictable, and good zone defenses will solve us, as they have in recent years. But there’s reason to believe the solution is already in the rotation.
My larger point is this—KU is basically exactly as good as they look. There’s nothing hidden here, yet. They’ve lost two games by a combined three points, and they’re absolutely a contender in a season where the best college talent is dispersed throughout the top 25 (50?) teams. Watch the games—or watch the highlights—and trust what you see.
Give Enaruna more minutes.
My All-Star Ballot, So You Can Straight Up Copy It
Tossed Luka the extra votes because I had to fill a spot, you are welcome Luka. On Jan. 10 and Jan. 16, your votes count double #DoubleUpForDevonte
