I enjoy writing the Sunshine Corner, but the resources required to maintain the newsletter in its current form are not sustainable given the number of subscriptions.
I am moving Sara’s Sunshine Corner to my Substack and reducing the frequency of this content to a monthly cadence, on the full moon.
The new moon on August 4 occurred while it was in conjunction with Venus. If the sky was clear, you may have seen Venus as the brightest star in the western sky shortly after sunset. If you missed it, enjoy the telescoped version below.
Venus as it will be seen in the night sky of August 2024. Image credit: Chris Vaughan/Starry Night
Last week was a wild one for economic news and the market.
From Wednesday’s Fed announcement to the Friday jobs report, there is much to cover. The labor market started to show signs of softening that the Fed has been waiting for to start cutting rates.
In addition, private equity real estate (PERE) returns for Q2 2024 were released since the last newsletter. Capital depreciation slowed, but so did net operating income growth.
Hello, I’d like to invite you to subscribe to my bimonthly newsletter, Sara’s Sunshine Corner. In each issue, I shine a light on the latest U.S. economic factors impacting real estate.
Subscriptions are available at $10/month or $100/year. I am offering a promo through the end of August for 25% off with code SUMMER. The next two newsletters will be published on August 5 and 19.
All subscribers have full access to the newsletter archives and Q1 2024 SRR Real Estate Quarterly. Cancelations are allowed at any time with no fee.
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Belated Buck Moon Edition
If you noticed the bright, full moon Sunday night, you may be aware that this issue is a few days late. If you didn’t notice the last full moon, allow me to share a photo of the moonrise behind the Statue of Liberty.
Image credit: Photo by Gary Hershorn/Getty Images. Click this image for more info and Buck Moon photos from around the world.
SRR Consulting is back from holiday to cover the good and not-so good news from the June 2024 jobs report and how to follow employment by industry to track real estate demand.
The Fed’s preferred inflation measure for April was released last Friday; tomorrow is the April jobs report; and the FOMC is set for a rate decision next week. Let’s get into it.
Inflation keeps chugging along.
April 2024 personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation was 0.3% for the third consecutive month. Core PCE inflation over the month ticked down to 0.2% in April from 0.3% in February and March. On a year-over-year basis, PCE inflation was 2.7% and Core PCE inflation was 2.8%.
Sunshine Corner Issue 2024:4 noted that commercial real estate values are following market prices down.
For May’s full moon issue, let’s get into this further. There is more going on in the data than the usual suspect — appraisal lag — with core fund property type composition shifting dramatically since 2019.
Issue 2024:4
In this edition of Sara’s Sunshine Corner:
☀️ What’s new? Updates on GDP, jobs, and a note on CRE pricing and core fund values.
☀️ What’s next? SRR Real Estate Quarterly is available behind this newsletter’s paywall with everything you need to know about the Expanded NPI and Q1 2024 property returns.
☀️ So What? I love writing and I love research, but I can’t do it for free. Please subscribe to support my work.
Issue 2024:4
In this edition of Sara’s Sunshine Corner:
☀️ What’s new? Updates on GDP, jobs, and a note on CRE pricing and core fund values.
It has been a long week of technical difficulties, my friends.
On one hand, digging into the Expanded NPI is my new favorite thing. On the other hand, my entrepreneurial journey into setting up payment systems and two versions of document hosting is no fun at all. “I am learning new skills” is the mantra that keeps me rolling along with the proverbial punches.
It’s the April full moon, so it’s time for the next Sara’s Sunshine Corner.
I hope you enjoyed the solar eclipse after reading my last newsletter. I walked to Central Park from the ULI Spring 2024 Meeting in Midtown to check it out. It was a cloudy day with 90% of totality in New York City but still a lovely day in the park.
Me, sitting on a rock in Central Park and my views as the sky briefly darkened during the eclipse on April 8, 2024
Happy Solar Eclipse! The excitement around these natural events is glorious. I will not be in a good spot for totality today, but I am in a good spot for shining a light on the Fed, jobs, and domestic migration shifts.
Nailed it.
The March FOMC meeting wrapped up as expected, with no change in rates and continued emphasis on data-driven decisions. The data in question, of course, is the slow downward trend in inflation and continually strong labor market.
The first issue of Sara's Sunshine Corner is a special edition for the Spring Equinox. This timing also works well for sharing thoughts about today's interest rate decision.
