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September 29, 2025

The Trust Gap

Updating the Diffusion of Innovation model for AI, strategizing for trust-building, and navigating AI adoption hurdles.

One signal 🔭
One prompt 🧠
One subtraction opportunity ➖

Created by Sam Rogers · Powered by Snap Synapse
Also now freely available on Substack


🔭 Signal: Planning for AI Adoption in 2026

Consumer adoption of innovation comes first. Enterprises come later, usually while insisting they’re “preparing” for the change.

Think about where we’ve seen this before:

  • Video (2010s)
  • Mobile (2000s)
  • Internet (1990s)
  • PCs (1980s)

For the 2020s, the wave is AI. People everywhere are using it. Expecting it. Depending on it. Just not yet at work.

Pew’s latest AI study shows the tipping point is here. This is when employees are using AI at home and then very predictably wondering why their workplace feels so behind the times. Pew.webp

Meanwhile, 'tis the season teams are locking in 2026 budgets, nearly all with “AI acceleration” bullet points baked in. The trouble is, AI is currently sitting right where adoption usually breaks: The Trust Gap.

Ev Rogers (no relation) mapped how innovations spread over 60 years ago. In the 1990s, Geoff Moore showed us where they stall: The Chasm.

Today, AI faces the same stall point:

  • Architects are building amazing things faster than ever
  • Catalysts are piloting at speed and evangelizing like crazy
  • Integrators are waiting on workflows that actually work in their hands
  • Conformers need policies and proof before they’ll join in on anything
  • Legacy Loyalists are holding back and digging in

🧠 Strategic (Human) Prompt: You Are Where?

You probably have each of these in your org today: Architects, Catalysts, Integrators, Conformers, Legacy Loyalists. Map them.

AI-curve.jpeg

Now ask yourself: How do our Catalysts build trust with Integrators?


➖ Strategic Subtraction: Integrators or Bust

Proof of Concept is useful for Architects and Catalysts. Everyone else doesn’t care that something could work. They care that it does work.

The next part of the adoption wave is the Integrators (traditionally known as the "Early Majority"). They care about what they can integrate into their existing workflow and build upon. They will do the work to integrate only what they can depend on.

So...of all the AI pilots so far, which have the most potential appeal to the Integrators?

Leadership funds the pilots, but Integrators decide if AI actually sticks. Refocus projects to win them over. Or watch implementations stall out.


🛣️ Analogy of the Week: Freeway Onramp

MacarthurMaze.png

AI Transformation is like an onramp to the freeway. If it’s short, crooked, or missing guardrails, cars might lurch onto the road...but pileups follow at freeway speeds.

The faster the highway, the longer and smoother the onramps need to be. Cars need time, stability, and visibility to reach speed before merging in. The same is true for AI: speed at scale requires room for smooth, safe acceleration. Reckless jumps into traffic are dangerous for everyone.


🎵 Closing Notes

AI adoption isn’t waiting for anyone. Employees are already ahead. Budgets are being set. The Trust Gap is upon us.

Integrators hold the keys to real implementation. Win them, and AI can pay off. Lose them, and you’re stuck at pilot forever. Helping organizations tip that balance is what I do.

📅 Talk to me

📬 Subscribe on Substack

Until next time,

Sam Rogers

Trust Architect for AI Transformation

Snap Synapse – from AI promise to AI practice

Read more:

  • September 21, 2025

    Tools Takeover Talent

    Dissecting AI's job impact, pinpointing talent displacement and redefining our tasks.

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  • July 14, 2025

    Tech Roadmaps Are Culture Roadmaps

    Exploring the cultural bottlenecks in tech and how your AI rollout plan can adapt.

    Read article →
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